Monday, March 2, 2020

First of the Month Money

Today was the usual influx of cash from the reinvestment of dividends, contributions from company 401k accounts, company bonuses, and pensions which are often automatically allocated to the market-place without much human intervention on the first trading day of the new month. As the result, the wave which I showed yesterday as the invalidation point was hit today at the end of the day. This is shown in the chart below.

As a result, I demoted the waves in the count to minute waves, and we now have a Minor wave 1, at the low. I did stick to my word about the invalidation point, and the count below does meet degree labeling requirements.

ES Futures - Hourly - Minor 1

I told blog reader and contributor BBRider I would consider the downward diagonal, which he must be given credit for proposing, if an when there was upward overlap. There was, today, at the very end of the session. There wasn't much point to looking for a better count until there was that overlap.

One problem is that the count from the bottom is a complete mess, and therefore may still be an incomplete structure - and it 'may' be the start of an expanding diagonal. 

However, given the rise in the EWO to the level it has risen to (beyond -40% of the trough low), it appears that a second wave is in progress. By comparison, wave 2 will have a lot of hours to burn yet - many of which will occur in the overnight.

This is all I can add at this time. It was a funky wave down - not withstanding the 77 point drop in the futures last night - but there is alternation as shown and minute ((v)) on a 5-minute chart is an expanding ending diagonal that counts very well.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe


69 comments:

  1. So the weekend count was wrong then.

    Onward.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It happens to the best of us..

      Delete
    2. I have deleted the remainder of your posts. You can clearly see from this post on February 10th..way before the top, that I was looking for the best way to call "a top".

      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/02/ugly-but-still-legal.html

      I told you to either cite 'all' of my work, or to cite 'none' of it. You refuse to follow these rules.

      Further, you or anyone else on the blog is not allowed to use this blog to criticize any other market analyst, technician, or blog contributor.

      This site is about wave counting 'only'. And since you offer no counts, do no work, and show no charts, I have made the decision - after warning you numerous times that your posts are not wanted here, and from here forward are banned.

      But that should not be a problem for you because you have demonstrated you are in no way interested in Elliott wave. You are just interested in criticizing others.

      Sorry, it is your behavior and not mine that has gotten you banned.
      TJ

      Delete
  2. I'm looking at this correction on spx. Overlap and degree prevents impuls I believe.

    https://invst.ly/p-uej

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    Replies
    1. X2 overlaps the "a" wave of Y but not the W...

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    2. what if your (X) is just "b" ?

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    3. it would cause degree violations btw A & C I believe, and the last shot up prevents c to form as a diagonal, and the triangle I have shown is more likely than not a "b" wave triangle not a 2?

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    4. My apologies if I was unclear. The second (X) is shorter in price and time than the first (X). What if the second (X) is b?

      Delete
  3. MSFT looking very readable. 5 down off the top, now 5 up off lows.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tend to disagree on the five up in MSFT .. you can count them how you like, but for me, I want to see a 1.618 wave.

      https://invst.ly/p-umf

      Not there yet.

      TJ

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    2. Yes, just posted after doing a quick glance.

      Gap fill potential seems strong. Might take a week or so to complete this correction.

      Delete
  4. I am leaning towards the price action after the diagonal as a flat with a deep b at the low.

    Concerns me that the 4 in the above does not so up on the EWO.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Could be all of the correction or part of a combo like Flat X Zig Zag to take up more time.

      Delete
  5. If the dive to 2854 was an irregular B of 2, then we ought to know tomorrow, as C of 2 completed with the kissback at 3090 of the topline of the giant megaphone from January, 2018. This may be all the "retrace" we get.

    ReplyDelete
  6. All readers, please see my post in response to d-w above at 5:10 am. This is a reminder to you all to follow the rules of this blog. Comments to 'flame' other sites, technicians, blog readers and/or contributors are not welcome here. This site is about 'Wave counting only' - pure and simple. This site is not for your political views, your views on central banks, or any other opinion-related material. You may post a link to a very important recent news article if you think others may have not seen it, but only if it relates directly to wave counting. You may not post a link to EW work which is not your own, or to paid sites.

    This site is 'not' about your trading or investing recommendations or mine. It is not about your track record as a trader, or any specific trades you have called in the past. Posts that include phrases like "go long/short" any instrument or "hedge here" are directly in contrast with the purpose of this site. If that is what you are looking for, go elsewhere.

    Further, if your counts show symbols such as "Intermediate Degree" i.e. (2), when working with hourly charts, where the minute symbol, ((ii)) or circle-ii is most appropriate, then I know you do not understand 'degree labeling' at all, or are too lazy to bother with the basics, and your work and your ideas are subject to deletion.

    Once again, this site is about 1) counting, and 2) measuring the Elliott Wave at hand. It is about nothing else. Don't push me, or your posts will be banned too. Have I made myself clear?

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  7. Monitoring Smaller CD
    https://imgur.com/s3OXGyB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. we had a slightly higher high in overnight - couldn't that be the final 5 of a minor abc from 2856? Also it's a long term resistance area as christiangustafson pointed out, so the quasi "double top" and failure there seems appropriate. Well, I guess I'll know soon if I'm wrong. Good luck and thank you for your charts

      Delete
    2. Taking to long, may also be in e wave of triangle.

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    3. Triangle was getting to flat on the bottom, bull flag?

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    4. thanks, wow caught the spike right before it happened because I saw your triangle E - thank you

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  8. A slightly larger CD is hanging on by .75 but has lost its wedge shape.

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  9. Bollinger bands very narrow on 1 hour S&P 500 futures: https://invst.ly/q03kx

    ReplyDelete
  10. ES 15-min 'Possible' running triangle since 20:00 - subject to all the usual invalidation criteria. Next best option a flat.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is the thrust from the triangle, and the new high. Triangle did not invalidate, but it may have been a flat, too.

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    2. ..closer look .. triangle 'did' invalidate by a couple tics; likely the 'flat'. With that the case there is no 'ending wave', such as a triangle or diagonal, that I see yet.

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  11. my best

    https://imgur.com/tGtjVph

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On this above idea of a wxyxz the two x waves were the same length in time and the w and y are close to the same. This puts the end of z, which could easily have a truncated c in it, at around tomorrows close.

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    2. and in the w and y both have fairly decent c = a properties.

      Delete
  12. (CNBC) Fed cuts rates by half a percentage point to combat coronavirus slowdown

    ReplyDelete
  13. This is the count I see, and it aligns with the daily bars. Needs to trade below 3,046 to start anything to the down side. Not there yet.

    https://invst.ly/q04hv

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here is a little more meat on the bones.

      https://invst.ly/q04ov

      TJ

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    2. Both blue a and c of iii is bigger than i

      Delete
  14. I'm looking at this, I wonder, why did iv of (c) never overlap i and why is v still shorter than iii? Did it finish an impuls?
    https://invst.ly/q04xg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here is the (a) wave
      https://invst.ly/q04y6

      Delete
    2. ..also viable .. just that within your (a), the fourth wave has fewer "trading hours" than the second wave did. But, it might have more "clock hours" because the gap occurred over a non-trading weekend. I 'do not know' if that is valid or not. The Expanding Diagonal is the pattern that Elliott analysts have the least experience with because they are so rare. So I 'must' keep an open mind as to how they operate because there are so few instances to study - both the smaller one and the larger one.

      Delete
    3. I have one more option that I think puts iii at today's high. But you have to go back on a five-minute chart - all they way back to the beginning of the retrace wave. If there is a smaller diagonal i, then there can be a "running" second wave, then iii, up, to today's high.

      Delete
    4. Here is that option ...

      https://invst.ly/q05fz

      TJ

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    5. ..here is more on that option, and it may fit degree labeling better.

      https://invst.ly/q05k0

      It puts iii of ((3)) on the maximum of the MACD to help be a bit more objective.

      TJ

      Delete
    6. .. no overlap would be allowed on wave ((1)).

      Delete
  15. In 'cash' ..sideways triangle option off the top .. or we are getting an expanding diagonal downward. The three-wave patterns are tough to deal with.

    https://invst.ly/q05xf

    TJ

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  16. still on the table as well I believe.

    https://imgur.com/hJCwrt2

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  17. An item to be aware of ...the RUT (futures) have critical overlap already.

    https://invst.ly/q06go

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hung on the wall at the Fed Trading Desk. "Cut by 3 if not green by 3"

      Delete
  18. RUT futures have a new lower low, and need 1481.50 to create a downward diagonal (or triple zz), but the former seems more likely.

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  19. The lower degree b of 2 is bigger than 1 with inpulse count from bottom

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The futures count you showed as an alternate possibility

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    2. Right.. that is now 'water under the bridge' with downward overlap on ((1)), as well.

      TJ

      Delete
  20. There is is 1481 in the RUT futures, and the expanding diagonal possibility is validated. It 'looks' like a 5-3-5-3-5, too. But, it could go lower if it wants.

    https://invst.ly/q076w

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  21. ES would have an expanding diagonal at 2,994 or lower.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is 2,993 in the ES, as well, and the ES can also qualify for an expanding diagonal lower.

      TJ

      Delete
  22. In ES, upwards over 3030 would be a degree change.

    ReplyDelete
  23. ET, can this exp diagonal be considered an X wave of a double zz? If it would want to?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was thinking since it’s possible to count a finished tripple zz on cash, it’s more likely an expanded diagonal is leading

      Delete
  24. ES ..now up over 5-min declining diagonal trend line from the high

    ReplyDelete
  25. Joe, could you explain the degree change comment, or point to a link? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  26. ES .. now up over 3030, and the degree has changed to upward (largest upward wave since the downward diagonal began).

    ReplyDelete
  27. Joe, 0_2 trendline -are all your counts going to comply? and Are you going to comply with 2nd wave taking more time than first wave? i'm still stuck on what's going into your thinking. thanks marc

    ReplyDelete
  28. A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete
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