Regardless of the size of the wave, and regardless of one's thoughts about their wave-counting skills, a good wave count always begins with the designation of a "base channel". The base channel (or zigzag channel) for this move is shown below.
|ES Futures - 4 Hr - Base Channel|
When one looks at the base channel and the two significant futures gaps shown, one can see that it is hard to tease more out of the wave count than this. Could the most recent down wave be a minute ((b)) wave down on a divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator?
Yes, that is possible, but one should not assume so, until there are more substantial waves and more direct evidence. Could there be a Tuesday turn-around day? There could, but there is very, very little evidence for that yet. The prime case would be that the Fibonacci ruler shows today's down move is a 1.382 relationship. And, one could argue that the VIX is very high, and the CBOE put-call ratio is quite high - perhaps in the "Zone of Despair".
But, price will still be the best indicator. And, there, upward overlap, trading above the mid-channel and eventually above the upper descending channel line will be better indicators of a minute ((b)) wave, lower.
Trading full bars below the lower channel boundary, would tend to indicate other things. As it stands now, there are only three-waves down.
If today's down wave is the ((b)) wave of an expanded flat, it would indicate a significantly weaker market that we have seen in a very long time. It would be similar to the start of the 2009 - 2018 bull market - which also started with a flat wave.
If a zigzag winds up being the down count, then a diagonal lower can not be ruled out.
Bottom line .. it is a little too early to say what the overall count is with more specificity. Sharp reversals are possible in bear markets, and we have to see 1) if they occur, and 2) how far they travel.
Try to relax and recognize the most typical wave counting options. Flats are a little more common that diagonals, so perhaps that is what will develop. Don't get worried too much about 1.382 or 1.618; a flat can 'fail' if the market is to be exceptionally weak.
For now, let's hope the market circuit breakers are not needed for a while. They are very, very disruptive to actually trying to place orders.
Have a very good start to your evening.