Wednesday, March 18, 2020

'Minimum' Impulse Requriement Met - 3

Although price swings were a bit more wild today, with lower prices and additional trading halts, the interpretation of the four-hour chart has not invalidated a larger 4th wave.

ES Future - 4 Hr -

The EWO stalled its upward movement, then recovered a bit. Earlier today, we showed a chart (link HERE) of where the downward 1.382 level was from the initial wave 4 - or ((a)) of 4 - location. So, there is a decent probability that today's low was the minute ((b)) wave of 4.

Towards the end of the day, there was an initial 4-hr candle that formed a potential 'hammer' candle. Remember, such a candle needs confirmation with higher closing candles. With 115 candles on the current chart, if confirmed, it would be reasonable to see the EWO head back towards  the zero line.

Again, such a rally might come on the announcement of any other significant fiscal stimulus or progress on the disease/testing.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

48 comments:

  1. Hi Joe,

    I had some difficulty understanding your post (mainly the labelling), likely because I missed the previous intra-day posts. To re-confirm:

    1. We could be in wave 5 downward, that can morph into a diagonal, of which A ended at 2280, or it could be come an impulse.
    2. We are in the midst of wave 4, with A going to 2710, B to 2280, and we can anticipate a sharp C upwards that can be expected to exceed 2710 since it is an irregular flat, but not over 2854 that would invalidate wave 1.

    And 2) is preferred, since EWO oscillator is going upwards from wave 3 and has not touched the zero line?

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    1. Yes, that is a very viable path. The other is the recent triangle at the bottom was all of 4. But, it seems like the EWO doesn't agree with that one as well.

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  2. Question...wave 2 shown above goes beyond ema 34 but wave 4 does not need to...? Or am I still looking at wave 3 as incomplete...thank you in advance for your answer...

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    1. Wave 4 could be where it might show on the right. Then, it would contact the EMA-34. It would then be 'longer in time' than wave 2.

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  3. Pretty impulse of the low, this might be why..
    https://invst.ly/q5xsf

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    Replies
    1. 4 takes more time than 2 though, and its hard to count zz with all the trading halts

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    2. Maybe 4 is yet to come
      https://invst.ly/q5xuv

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    3. ET in your post 2 reached 50% but is still faster than 1, doesn't this increase the probability of being a ((b)) wave by quite alot?

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  4. ET, I am really lost on your labeling of the 3 in the above as an impulse. The look cry's out a three and when I put on the 1 hour to it and generate 140ish candles, there is hardly an attempt of the EWO to get to -10 to +40.

    There was another example of this on March 02 as well.

    Are you saying that in an impulse with an extended first wave, the checklist for the fourth wave from the 8 fold path is not to be used at all?

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    1. Here is my 2 cents.

      3 = 1.618 x 1 https://imgur.com/HafngLs

      From the top. https://imgur.com/etzW7Jc

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    2. ..the only problem is the supposed lower degree 'a' of (iv) is larger than all of ((ii)). That 'seems' to be a degree violation. So, I see that as (a) of 4.

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    3. Thx so much for the response. Looks like Asia blew up so my counts above look to have been blown as well.

      Again, Always greatly appreciate your insights.

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    4. Doesn't your a of ((iv)) also overlap ((i)) by a small amount?

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    5. That depends on were you put ((i)) and I believe you only use the e in a triangle as the overlap marker. All counts seem to have issues at the moment.

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  5. What happens to SPX options trading when electronic trading is ceased? Will it continue to trade?

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  6. 5 waves up so far on 5 mins chart.

    https://imgur.com/a/OJlIgSW

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    1. Looks like that was end of C/4 which ET was referring.
      Expanding diagonal down for 5 wave might be starting.

      https://imgur.com/a/jTzuTRv

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    2. Time taken for up move is now equal to down move without taking out the low.

      https://imgur.com/a/YJdrlOy

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  7. I have 3 ending today and 3 is about 1.675 x 1 if my math is correct

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  8. Here is an ED count that I am trying to see if it works. I am not very good with validation or invalidation numbers as I don't know how to do that very well. The ED seems to fit a 3/3/3/3/3 but the first wave is weird due to the circuit breaker.
    Any help would be appreciated. I think Erik B has posted something similar above this one is of smaller scale.

    https://imgur.com/XyENufo

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    1. A couple of things to add....
      1. If we are in the wave 5 the C might truncate
      2. I also measured the divergence of the EWO and it is VERY slight between 3 and 5 so far...but there is divergence.

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    2. Break through of upper trendline to chart above

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  9. Are we looking at a ZZZ combination?

    https://imgur.com/86BeSHJ

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    Replies
    1. Zoom in on triangle

      https://imgur.com/KZgPBK2

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    2. Triangle as originally drawn is out. This could be extending with 2422.75 c.

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  10. It seems to me that they often just quietly say goodbye to the channel. I few hugs and kiss's (6ft apart of course) and they leave. Anything over 2460 and I would say the correction has left the building.

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  11. Usually such chop, overlap, and general messy-ness is indicative of a triangle or diagonal. My assumption is that a running triangle is finishing nowish? Then a brutal 5th wave down through the weekend. Stimulus has not stopped the bleed, US virus cases will climb rapidly as will restrictions on movement, the dollar is suffocating the market and threatening a credit event, earnings revisions will plummet. If the market refuses to bounce with historic intervention, then it needs to seek a new low. Am I off here? Please tell me how I'm wrong with any or all of the above. I want to be wrong....

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    Replies
    1. I think a fat for iv in the works

      sincerely
      KAVI

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  12. Today, I would keep an eye on a potential base channel line this one.

    https://invst.ly/q69y7

    TJ

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    1. ..ES higher local high. If it breaks the channel upward significantly, then possibly (iii) of ((c)) of 4.

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    2. Can it be end of ((c)) of 4 ?

      https://imgur.com/a/sfGLuSs

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  13. E T do you have a chart posted that shows that..i mean (iii) of C of 4...thank you

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  14. Might move on to counting the waves in my wife's behavior for something easy :)

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    1. Another crack at it.

      https://imgur.com/J5Xgbpn

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    2. 4 hasn't even retraced .236 of maximum travel of 3, and if you count 3 right to the low, it was about 10 days, 4 would only be a day now. It's probably still in 4, maybe 2 of c.

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    3. Agree, but if 3 is at the low, this could simply be the first leg in a flat for 4, which say has only started.

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    4. On failure watch on the above contracting ending diagonal.

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    5. all seems to be there.

      https://imgur.com/OG8wZJf

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    6. And the ending diagonal on SPX starting at 2367.04 is still valid by .54 of a point.

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  15. ET, are you looking generally for previous 4th wave roughly 1810-2135 for the the low of 5 down from the top?

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  16. ES 15-min, the fractal breaks are currently to the upside. One upper fractal remains.

    https://invst.ly/q6c-c

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..according to broker quotes, by one tick, the structure in black can be a diagonal.

      https://invst.ly/q6da3

      TJ

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    2. At what point do you consider a fractal breakout to be confirmed? A close above the fractal?

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    3. @123; a fractal is a fractal. It breaks when exceeded in either direction. There is no 'subjectivity' or 'consideration' required.

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  17. First fractal down has just been broken lower.

    https://invst.ly/q6dqa

    TJ

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  18. wave 4 s are sooo hard for me to follow...thank goodness for this blog

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  19. According to my broker's quotes for SPX, there is no valid upward diagonal. 3 > 1.

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  20. There is a new post for the next day.

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