Tuesday, March 31, 2020

A Marginal New High, then a Zigzag Lower

Last night the futures made another marginal new high - which you can see on the hourly chart of the ES futures, below, in the position labeled (iii). Then, they fell off and made three-waves down - another a-b-c, this time lower. That is shown as the position labeled as (iv). Yesterday's chart showed the three waves down or a-b-c for wave (ii), and the beginning of the three-waves up for wave (iii).

ES Futures - Hourly - Marginal New High and Zigzag Lower

Last night's higher high occurred on a marked divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator. Then, on what appears to be wave (iv), the EWO went below the zero line. The EMA-34 crosses through each numbered wave for form and proportion.

Today was the end of the month and the end of the quarter. This is usually noted for both the usual "window-dressing" of stocks, but also for the usual quarterly re-balancing of some blended portfolios (i.e. 30%-bonds, 70% stocks).

Tomorrow is the first day of the new month. There might be some of the usual quarterly inflows from pension funds, 401k's, company bonus plans, etc. If another marginal new high is made on these inflows, and then prices fall off rapidly, it might be possible to conclude this is an ending diagonal for the minute ((c)) wave of Minor 4. 

Today in the comments (and shown again at this LINK), we showed another such diagonal on as small a time scale as the 1-minute scale. We said, "so far, nothing impulsive upwards yet at all". Notice the fifth wave failure in this tiny diagonal, and the pre-terminal triangle that signaled the end of the wave. Here, at this second LINK2, is how the count turned out. Note the impulse character of the wave with a very, very long fourth wave - as far as time goes. This whole impulse lower was the ((C)) wave of wave (iv) shown on the chart.

We suppose something like this might be occurring with the Minor 4th wave, but it remains to be proven.

So, have a very good start to your evening, and the new month.


  1. My thoughts


  2. ES currently at 2,464; not below 2451, or we'ver topped at 2,639.


  3. 120 bars so far.


  4. At 2450.75, now, any upward diagonal has formally invalidated. That means the top must have involved a triangle, ugly as it is. Will discuss tonight.

  5. Spy looks like a running triangle 4th wave perhaps?

  6. A new post is started for the next day.