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| S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Minute ((b))? |
If we began minuet wave (i) of minute ((c)), upward, that still doesn't mean that Sunday night is out-of-the-woods, as a significant retrace can still be expected. And, because there is no overlap on diagonal wave i, downward, we can not definitively rule out new lows, but a larger fourth wave in this location does seem less likely. Possible, but less likely.
Have a good start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
https://invst.ly/q1h7r
ReplyDeleteCould it be something like this? Is it breaking any rules? because 1.618 is a nice size for the 3 wave. Thank you
Exactly what I have.
DeleteI expect they will fill the gap on SPX at 3k to suck in the bulls. Thanks for your input
DeleteI think I will go with Joe's count above with five waves down completing wave ((b)). The reason is because if the length of ((c)) wave up equals the length of ((a)) wave up the target of about 3185 would be hit which is a fib value of .618 of wave 1 down. This is of course assuming no truncation to ((c)).
DeleteSo, while one is never absolutely certain, there are some more objective measures that one can use. This chart below shows that the EWO has the expected divergence 'within' wave ((3)). In other words, the EWO for .v of ((3)) is higher than for .iii of ((3)). AND, further ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q1lbb
The current EWO reading is +22, which is more than +40% of the trough. This exceeds the guideline for fourth waves. If the trough is -36, then .4 x 36 = 14.4, and the EWO should not have risen above 14 - 15 for a subsequent fourth wave. Yet, here it is at +22.
TJ
Yes I agree, that last wave certainly is more impulsive than a typical 4,also divergence on the smaller time frames seem to indicate a small rally to come. Thank you
DeleteI have 2 problems with your wave labeled iv, TJ. First, what is it? Its not a zigzag, not a triangle, and it doesn't measure as a flat. Second, the c wave up to iv would have to be an impulse. But on 1 minute, it is not an impulse. iv counts much better as an expanded flat as Roberto shows. That means from iii, there is 3 to a, 3,3,5 to b. The middle 3 of b is your c of iv and that wave, as mentioned, is clearly a 3.
Delete@Bob_J, you can 'say', it isn't a triangle, but it breaks no rules.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q1myw
TJ
We are at 30 days of the analog which means we have 21 days left to the bottom marked at 55 days. Here is a chart of JNK which has started to waterfall down. Also AMZN will also start a very large 3rd wave down. Typically markets lose from 50 to 57 percent in the A wave down....15,000 to 16,000 on the DOW. Next week should see contagion take hold across the world.
ReplyDeleteJNK
https://i.postimg.cc/G3DVXTz0/2020-03-07-0915.png
https://i.postimg.cc/HL6hRQ8z/2020-03-07-0901.png
The analog in the Dow
Deletehttps://i.postimg.cc/Fz7TJRpx/2020-03-07-0941.png
The JNK
Deletehttps://imgur.com/lbOUmPJ
You can't get more perfect of a "3 peaks and a Domed house than in the JNK, Since the JNK mirrors the Equity averages....they all have the same pattern. The markets are now in the "26" decline which is the most powerful down.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/k1DZUbJ
It's all 'water under the bridge' now.
Delete@Fast996 i respectfully disagree with that
DeleteThe $VIX track is the same as in Sep-Oct 2008. Today's $VIX matches early October, 2008. $VIX was then at 40. Toward the end of October, it peaked at 90.
DeleteI believe that we are in a crash. Probably worse than 2008 because of the speed of wave #1 down. This is a very fast, dangerous market.
From this point, I think all rallies should be sold / shorted. SPXD and TZA were invented for a situation like this.
I think, if the Fed holds the market up this weekend, the ensuing rally will only last until 1 pm. You don't want to hold any equities long overnight any more.
@Fast996 .. last warning. No more comments about your 'trading prowess' or account size. Period.
DeleteI'm with Joe, I think thur/fri down was a b of 2 and need a c up to at least 62% of 1. Indexes, amazon and many others have very strong resistance at 62-78% which would be more ideal. And don't be fooled if we go below wave 1 low, it could be just a expanded flat. Or fooled by the 5 waves down we have in place since the spx, nas, dow, and amzn retraced 50%. That could just as easily be the c wave of the b wave before we get the c up. But your count could definitely be right, but the rsi divergences on the 1 hr might be hinting that we need one more up to finish 2.
ReplyDeleteET, Would you care to comment on Gold. I am thinking Expanding Ending Diagonal for C of Y on the weekly as to not interfere with the X triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/DkVW8KK
Daily chart suggests maybe some whippy times immediately ahead.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GFFvGYnl/
TJ
Thanks so much.
DeleteAlso keep in mind on a monthly chart, (B), up, is not yet longer in time than (A) down, and 78.6% retrace level is at 1,735.
DeleteW/o a truncated V at 28/2 low I can’t find an impulse on cash from top..any suggestions?
ReplyDeleteWith truncated 5 cash would have a similair impulse as futures w extended 1
DeleteI'm pretty sure this 'traditional style' Elliott wave count works with an extended fifth wave - and no truncation. It is part of the reason I prefer counting futures, as it is easier to verify degree conflicts on the futures than on cash.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q1nm0
TJ
Your (ii) of ((iv)) appears to be an expanded flat. By my measure, its b wave is in excess of 3.14 external retrace of a. This seems excessive? Do you select the label locations, or does a software you use do this?
DeleteThanks.
Typo - I meant (ii) of ((v)). On second question, or combination?
DeleteIf you use a software to any degree, might I ask which?
Thanks!
For the potential flat to complete 2. The B wave did not quite reach 90%. Treat it as a guideline I presume of surrounding wave structures support it?
ReplyDeleteWho said or says it's a flat?
DeleteRight, I had temporarily forgotten the ((A)) was an expanding diagonal. Apologize.
Delete((a))
DeleteWeekly charts of Crude, Transports, and RUT show all three peaking in Sept./Oct. of 2018. Crude has violated its Dec. 2018 low, while Transports are testing its Dec. 2018 low and RUT is heading toward a test of its Dec. 2018 low. Weekly Slow. Stoch. are pointing down on all three. These three indices seem to be leading to the downside.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q1ow0
https://invst.ly/q1ow3
https://invst.ly/q1ow6
Correct.
DeleteEWA also leading the way down. China is exporting its depression to them. Also, they are entering flu season as we are exiting it. The Aussies are facing a depression.
ET, had a question on expanding diagonal which you showed from the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/mIp3Clc
The length of down sub wave of wave (iii) after wave (ii) is longer than wave (ii) itself.
Is that degree violation where retrace in subwave is longer ?
I don't know that it is, in fact, longer. You just throw up an hourly bar, and say, see, "it is longer". But, we know there could be a zigzag in there, where the 'b' wave of such a zigzag is a FLAT. Therefore, internally, the 'net distance traveled' might be less. In other words, you are not willing to do any of the work. You just want to 'find fault'. Do the work! Further, I have already stated that the single 'gap down' bar is hard to know how to deal with time-wise, since it is the first bar after the weekend, and the weekend hours 'may' count in the degree consideration. If that is the case, then there is a 'smaller' diagonal, and then a regular (ii), (iii), (iv), (v) to ((a)). Bottom line - do the work!
DeleteMy broker "weekend index" is have made new lows, so I'm looking at this. If so (iii) is the extended wave which is longer than bigger degree A, so I don't "think" this (v) is allowed to also be bigger than A if count is correct, so should be a pretty swift down leg from the Asian and European trading with a quick
ReplyDeleterecovery.
https://invst.ly/q1rp1
@Erik .. I have lost patience for your lack of regard for degree labeling. The next chart you posted had intermediate degree waves inside of minuet degree waves. You had larger waves inside of smaller ones. Thus, that chart was deleted so the blog readers do not get confused. Want to have all your work deleted? Keep it up...
DeleteI think 100% of the readers understands that the internal waves was of lower degree.. but if you think not I’ll do better next time
Delete..it will help your own discipline, as well, and it will probably point out relationships or violations you hadn't considered before.
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