Sunday, March 8, 2020

Some Homework For You

This is the second post this weekend. If you have not seen the first, yet, you may wish to view it, as well.

This chart is being posted for those of you who think a "B" wave should not be over the 1.382 level. This is a weekly chart of the New York Composite Index (symbol NYA). Where did this "B" wave - Intermediate (B) in this case - top? Why, exactly before the 1.382 level. That's where.

NY Composite Index - Weekly - Intermediate (B)

And, for all the talk of higher $NYAD lines, look at the stunning divergence on the weekly Elliott Wave Oscillator.

But, did the other "high-flying" indexes make 1.382 waves? They did not. The Dow got to inside of 1.618, and a chart of that was already posted (can be seen at this LINK). The S&P500 and the NDX got to slightly over 1.618.

So, now, the primary item under consideration for the longer term is whether the Dow and the S&P500 did make true ending diagonals - which their market trend lines did sketch out - or is it just the Intermediate (B) wave - as this chart and degree labeling seems to point to. You'll note that it does not seem possible to make an ending diagonal wave out of the above structure.

And, now for your bit of homework. Where did that Intermediate (A) bottom on the NYA compared to the up waves made in 2016? Take some time to investigate it, and you'll have another clue as to why I think the larger trend topped at 5 of (5), shown. Remember, the Dow and the S&P did make those higher highs in October, 2018. The $NYA did not and I called it a fifth wave failure at that location.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe

42 comments:

  1. The (A) is Larger than previous 2 and 4, so the (A) should not be part of 5?

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  2. i agree with your (B) wave high on all of indexes and where 3 wave high is in all of the indexes, but I would argue the recent top is (B) of 4. With your 4 being just A, your 5 being B, and your C(A) being....C(A)! The recent top I also concur is (B), so (C) wave down to 18-2100 and wave 5 still to come. I've been tracking this count since june 2018 and it has been correct. and also explains the difference of new highs or not in sept 2019 as spx and dow are making expanded flats and NYA making a flat.

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  3. Only up I can see if they want to fill the gap.

    https://imgur.com/Cd9RrF4

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  4. I suggest the label '# Times Up' for your Monday posting if the Fed is unable to keep the market up tomorrow. I think last Wednesday's close was point 27 on the 'Three peaks and a Domed House' pattern. I don't know about others, but I will no longer hold equities long over night.

    The Russkies and Saudis kicked off the big decline by deciding to cut the price of oil well below $45. They pretended that the Saudis were mad at the Russkis, so had Aramco lower the boom. But Putin is mad at Trump for sanctions prventing the completion of the NordStream 2 (not sure baout the name) pipeline fro Siberia to Germany. So he decided it would be a good time to decimate U S oil & gas frackers. Meanwhile, Aramco (J D Rockefeller) decided the CV epidemic and decline in demand for oil would be a great time to take out their competitors to prepare for the next business recovery (2021-2022?). Since Aramco's cost of production is about $5/bbl, this step is not too painful for them, although it pinches the Saudi Kingdom's budget a bit. We're probably going to re-test the $25 / bbl lows of 2015-16. Great for consumers; not so hot for marginal oil & gas producers and their lender banks.

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  5. Maybe tomorrow we could have a discussion about the time stamp on corrective waves.
    Waiting for a 100% time extension has saved my a lot of money over the years but I always had a feeling that in waves that had to be fast to offset the drawn out waves they were moving against, they may not have the time to meet the 100% criteria.

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  6. Long way to go in wave 3 = 21,000 or lower

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    Replies
    1. Agree with the general direction. This is often were it seems to get dicey with intervention. I would not be surprised at all if some emergency tax/payroll tax cuts get announced.

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    2. The oil cut by MBS Saudis will bring in liquidation of debt....It's every nation for itself now. The saudis saw the writing on the wall and said screw Putin and Trump.....nothing can stop it now.

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    3. Fast996, you've nailed the moves. Is there a way to contact you off this site?

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  7. I'm hoping that's the end of this wave down. Trendline on ES seems to be valid https://invst.ly/q1vgt enjoy your evening and week

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  8. TJ, a question. I understand a 5th failure normally leads to retracement of entire impulse (i.e. NYA's Jan 2016 low just below 9,000)? Is an irregular flat common after a 5th failure?

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  9. So who thinks this is a 5th wave of B of 2 or a 5th wave of i of 3? I personally have been expecting the former, but the news cycle makes me worried its the latter

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  10. Does anyone know whey the /ES futures stalled. It is at 2819 for a while now.

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    Replies
    1. Down limit circuit breaker triggered. Uncharted waters, pun intended...!

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  11. I always remember this, thinking, where is the top.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen/feds-yellen-expects-no-new-financial-crisis-in-our-lifetimes-idUSKBN19I2I5

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  12. Monthly CL now testing 2016 low, riding the lower bb, slow stoch. pointing down and the moving averages in a bearish alignment:https://invst.ly/q1zh-

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  13. You guys see the new wave 2 pattern?

    -------------------a-----------------------b------------------------------c

    It channels really tight.

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  14. Good morning all. Just be aware that market 'circuit breakers' were activated once last night, per CNBC.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/sp-500-futures-are-frozen-after-tanking-5percent-heres-what-happens-when-circuit-breakers-kick-in.html

    Additional 'circuit breakers' or trading halts can happen if the market falls more today. Please read up on these, so you aware aware that some trading could be automatically frozen.

    TJ

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  15. Stockcharts down for anybody else?

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  16. Replies
    1. Now bring on the PPT to close both gaps to make shorting very painful. GL to all today.

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  17. If the bounce is small, that could be 3 sets of 1-2 down.

    I can hardly wait for the master to disentangle.

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  18. Some degree and fib is saying this might work, but bottom prob need to hold, otherwise it will likely fall apart in 12-12 down...?
    https://invst.ly/q24mu

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    Replies
    1. My gut says running flat - maybe up to 3000 from your B low. Should follow the break from the morning range.

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    2. @Erik, I like your increased focus on correct degree labeling. Keep it up! Also, a diagonal lower can still work, and can not be ruled out. But, flats are more common. So, we'll see.

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  19. Lets see if LD holds, few more candles to equal the time taken for up mode.

    https://imgur.com/a/WU3WAmh

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    Replies
    1. It has held so far. Tentative end of ABC correction and move up.

      https://imgur.com/a/rxtDYZX

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    2. looks like a complex correction, expecting one more low personally. Thanks for your charts

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    3. Wc Roberto !

      Looking at one more LD, lets see now if this one hold.

      https://imgur.com/a/EKHQayK

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    4. Got take out, looks like it was ED for B wave.

      https://imgur.com/a/frILDbR

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  20. 3 up and 5 down today could be 4-5 from 3130 cash, maybe 1 of 3 from the top completing?

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  21. So is there any chance today's bottom(if it happens) can be a B wave. If today's down stops at 2720ish support, the down since 3133 would measure 161.8% of the wave up off the last low. More than most wave B's but not breaking any rules.

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  22. Tell me I am nuts, but would not this make sense as to why these waves have been very hard to count.

    https://imgur.com/crpv4AJ

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    Replies
    1. Can be a possibility, need to wait to see overlap with 1.

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    2. You're not nuts. See tomorrow's post.

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  23. A new post has been started for the next day.

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