'Minimum' Wave 4 Attained

With 144 candles on the ES 4-hr chart, price moved above the minute ((a)) wave, meeting the 'minimum' expectation for a flat fourth wave. As such, if the fourth wave holds, it would alternate really well with the sharp (or zigzag) second wave.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minute ((c)) above ((a))

The 4-hr candle at the cash close (the just one prior to the settlement candle) was a weak Gravestone Doji. It did not close exactly equal to its open, but close to it.  For this candle to indicate the end of the fourth wave, the high of the candle should hold, and there should be a confirming lower close candle below the EMA-34. 

If confirmation of the Gravestone Doji is not obtained, then it is still possible the upward wave is in a fourth wave triangle. In that case, it would be minuet (iv) of minute ((c)). However, from the minute ((b)) wave low, five-waves-up can be counted including a slight truncation at today's high. That truncation would be acceptable.

The Elliott Wave Oscillator is about as high as it should get on this trip above the zero line, so watch any further upward movement in price and the oscillator carefully. The EWO should try to hold 100 - 120 for the fourth wave.

If the Minor wave 5 begins in earnest, it should make a new low and not truncate before doing so. Trading below the EMA-34 and the mid-line of the channel shown would be mile posts along the way to a potential new low.

Have a good start to your evening,

TraderJoe