We have showed on charts for a while now that - if the ES daily futures were to be making an expanding diagonal lower - this up wave would need to get past the minimum level of 4,168.25 (corrected). That level was marked on previous charts, and it is marked on the updated chart below. ES prices today got to 4,170 - meeting the minimum criterion.
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ES Futures - Daily - Minimum wave 4 met |
We now know that wave Minor 4 has both taken longer in time, and traveled farther in price than wave Minor 2. One can also see that the Elliott Wave Oscillator for wave Minor 4 is higher than that for Minor 2 - that is something I doubt anyone else told you could happen.
Could Minor 4 be over today? Well, yes, it is possible as the wave would still meet the rules. Still, there are several ways the up wave could continue. Why? Because slightly higher prices might meet the upper descending diagonal trend line and provide a better look to the pattern. Here are the most likely options.
- Price is still in a b wave of minuette wave (iv) as a larger flat. Wave (v) to come.
- Minuette wave (iv) ended today in a triangle, and today is only wave i of (v).
- Minuette wave (iv) is continuing in an expanding triangle; today was wave d.
- Wave minuette (v) is making an expanding diagonal.
The four-block below shows some of these ideas in the order above on the cash hourly chart.
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SPX Cash - Hourly - Possible wave (iv)'s |
Each of these local counts has it's own strengths and weaknesses. The one I like the least is the contracting triangle; its waves look the lesser developed. Well, this is all part of what I have termed The Fourth Wave Conundrum which happens at every degree of trend.
Of the four, it is likely that the second and fourth chart provide the wave in the wedge look that should have resulted from the extended first wave (i), and the shallow retrace following it.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe