Friday, October 22, 2021

No Change to Prior Waves Counted

Here is the weekly chart. There are no changes to prior waves counted. The new information is that stocks and futures (with the exception of the Russell 2000, yet) have made a new all-time high. Also, the NYSE advance-decline line made a new all time high. Along with several other FED-related factors this suggests that upward stocks movements may not be over.

From a technical viewpoint, using the weekly chart 1) there is no wave two signature on the Elliott Wave Oscillator. 2) Price could attempt to form a better channel. 3) There could be alternation in the wave (X)'s. 4) Wave (Y) was not as long as wave (W), but a brief turn lower occurred at exactly the right time, and 5) IF wave A is in 'three-waves-down', one simply had to wait until price got to 90% of the high to suggest that maybe wave (X2) will be a Flat or Expanded Flat. It did.

I could be wrong.

On Saturday morning, an update of the 4-hr chart was added to this post. The chart shows that this up wave whether minute ((iii)) or minute ((c)) is best paired with the leading expanding diagonal off of the low.

The rationale is that the pairing results in a near 1.618 relationship at this time. Now, "most often" leading diagonals are "a" waves. And, if so, one might expect the tentative up channel to break and not support a fourth wave down. But that remains to be seen.

Have a good start to the evening and to the weekend.


Thursday, October 21, 2021

Up Wave Without A Substantial Pull-back x((1)) ?

This is the best hourly count I see. There is nothing yet to imply that the up wave is over. It would be quite a short wave ((5)) if the wave ended here. But, it bears watching. Price has not gone over the all-time high yet on this index, but it could.

What we can see is that the 0 - ((2)) trend line has been broken to the downside, and that is likely the wave ((4)). The location of ((3)) is not precise. There is one way to count in which ((3)) is at the 0.618 extension of wave ((1)). There is also a way to count wave ((4)) as a triangle - which was shown in the cash market in the comments.

The hourly EWO did drop below the zero line meeting the requirement of +10% to -40% of the largest prior peak. There is also a smaller probability that wave ((4)) is further to the right on the chart as a flat. Again, this depends on any overlaps. But at this point the up move exceeded a 1.382 of the prior high and low.

Have a good start to the evening.


Wednesday, October 20, 2021


The $NYA has made a new high. The advance/decline line has made a new high. The Dow (YM) futures need to be watched to see if they exceed their truncation high. The ES futures have exceeded the 90% level of their decline. Internally, there is now more than a 1.272 wave up off the low with a higher high on the EWO.

The situation suggests drawing this tentative channel and looking to see if the channel holds or not. As I said previously, it is possible to go over the high. The $NYA has done that - as was commented yesterday.

The symbol (c)/(iii) > means this wave is continuing until a clear reversal is seen. And a wave (iii) is as likely as a (c) wave; but a 1.618 wave has not been attained yet.

Have a good start to the day.


Tuesday, October 19, 2021

Smart Money Target Hit

In previous posts we noted that the upper daily Bollinger Band might be a target for the Smart Money: those with position sizes large enough to move prices. This morning that target was hit and then some.

Today being Tuesday, prices might 'turn around' some. The question is how much and what it means for a wave count.

Have a good start to the day.


Friday, October 15, 2021

Count Not Useful at the Moment

Today, we said the Smart Money might target the upper Bollinger Band at 4,472.50 and price got to 4,468 not quite making it. Why? Maybe it will on Monday/Tuesday. Maybe not. If not, there is a potential failure lurking, as we showed in the comments for today on the ES 8-Hr chart, below.

Price has not yet crossed up over the 27 Sep high. It could. That would be a common expectation. Price could also continue up to the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio or beyond. Could it make a new high? It could. 

The wave count is relatively useless at this point. A lot depends on that issue we we having with the first wave down. Is it a "five" or a "three"? If it's a 'five' we might just have had a large flat following it. Or, if it's a "five" the wave structure to the low might be ((a)), ((b)), ((c)) to Minor 1, with a second wave, Minor 2 for the month of October. Or the a-b-c could be part of a triangle, somewhere.

If it's a "three", then the wave structure to the low might count as w-x-y.

Another confusing item: the SPX/SPY and NQ futures made lower lows the first day of October. The ES did not. So, this might support some sort of "b" or "x" wave at the early October low. But, again, it does not add to the clarity. 

Too, neither is the situation with degree labeling able to answer many questions. But, because the late September wave down is shorter in price and time than the early September wave down, it can count as a sub-wave - like a "b" wave or an "x" wave.

Dubiously, the situation requires flexibility and willingness to use technical indications such as the Bollinger Bands until we see if a new high is made first or a new low. Right now, the Bollinger Bands do not exactly look like they are in a position to support new all-time-highs right away. But, stranger things have happened.

Have a good start to your evening and to your weekend.


Thursday, October 14, 2021

Trend Line Broken

Today the down trend line was broken (and, hence, the upper parallel trend line). The upper daily Bollinger Band might be a 'Smart Money' target, but it does not have to be.

The count is temporarily in a state of limbo until we see how far the up wave pushes. At this point one can speculate until blue-in-the-face about triangle, and where they start, etc. We will avoid that for now while admitting a triangle is possible - but so it a Flat wave.

The one thing we will note, is that if this is the whole correction, it is just less than 23.6% from the Oct-Nov 2020 low. And it is only 14.6% from the March 2020 low. More downside - which has not been ruled out yet - could make those numbers more proportional. Such shallow corrections are almost unheard of.

Have a  good start to the evening.


Wednesday, October 13, 2021

Back to the Line In the Sand

Yesterday, we suggested that maybe a second wave wasn't done yet to the upside. Today tended to bare that out.

After making a 90% retrace needed for the 'b' wave of a Flat wave, price then headed higher to the combination of the 100-day SMA, and the 18-day SMA. Keep on a watch out to see if the 18-SMA crosses under the 100-day.

Have an excellent start to the evening.