Best Alternate at this Time - 3

The daily picture in the ES futures still looks like the chart below. Nothing has changed there, yet. We are still waiting to see if a fifth wave, minute ⓥ, completes and if it completes with good form. Since the third wave in this configuration is shorter in price than the first wave, the Fibonacci ruler is shown to see if the fifth wave stays shorter than the third. There isn't an upward length violation at this time. If there should be, we will adjust.

As far as the local count on the SPY cash 30-min chart, there is a leading expanding diagonal first wave (where the zigzags first started coming from - because they initially couldn't be counted as clean 'fives'), then a second wave zigzag, then a third wave which just notches out a wave that is longer than the first. This chart starts with minute-iv, circle-iv, or ((iv)) at the lower left. From there, this would be the minute ⓥ wave.

There is one way to count the pattern as complete, but it doesn't match up with the futures. A further way to see the pattern ending would be with a ivth wave triangle. Right now, a parallel is being maintained. If a triangle forms, the parallel could be breached. We note the Elliott Wave Oscillator is not near the zero line yet on this timeframe.

Have an excellent rest of the day.

TraderJoe

Best Alternate at this Time - 2

The ES daily futures got within 90% of the prior high, qualifying for the 'b' wave of a Flat, or the next impulse, higher.

The upward wave 'currently' counts best as a double zigzag. That could change. But the wave is high enough to wonder a little bit about a truncation.

One might want to keep an ear out for the news over the long weekend.

Have a good one.

TraderJoe

Best Alternate at this Time

Like an 'eighties John Travolta movie with Bee Gee's soundtrack if this market decides it is Staying Alive then this would be the best alternate I can offer on the ES daily timeframe. The market has been very hesitant and whippy in its declines. There is some possibility it is a fourth wave.

The down wave is the longest decline on the chart in the up series from April already, so the degree may have turned. But it has not yet overlapped - a key sign of a loss of momentum. The down wave might continue to the 18-day SMA (see prior posts) or it may go much farther than that.

The MACD has only just curled over from its high peak reading. Yet, the wave is currently in a parallel that we will acknowledge until/unless broken lower.

And wild cards are 1) the FED meeting minutes tomorrow, 2) NVidia earnings after the close, and 3) the geopolitical news background.

Again, nothing lower will surprise me but did I want to cover my commitment to review reasonable alternates to the wave count. And, if the third minute wave is shorter than the first minute wave, then the fifth minute wave should be shorter than the third if it occurs.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

Watch the Embedded Reading

Monday's session ended with the ES daily slow stochastic below the 79 level at 78.90, and tonight the reading is around 71 - 72. The only day the market can gain back the embedded status immediately is for both the %K and the %D lines to close back up over 80 in Tuesday's session. This is not impossible, but it will take a large rally. The daily chart is below.

If the embedded status is not regained, it becomes more probable that price and the 18-day SMA will try to come together. As it stands right now the daily bias is still somewhat positive as the closing price was over that 18-day average.

Today - in the comments for the prior post - we said that any potential expanding diagonal upward invalidated in the Sunday night session. It's good to have that one off the table.

Whippy and grindy - as it is - this is my best estimate of the what the down and the up wave counts are in the half-hour ES/SPY (CFD).

ES/SPY (CFD) - 30 min - Count

The overnight waves, and those made in the cash session best count as a Flat wave, so far. There are two fourth wave locations nearby - shown by the blue box. But the lower low in the cash session may have been a tip-off.

In a perfect flat, the a-3 wave can be taken out and exceeded higher. If there is some overnight news or for some other reason (like a big whale gets the willies, or something) the flat can truncate. Don't put anything past this market. Attempt to count what you see.

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe

Pinbar

Don't exhaust yourself this weekend. Every YouTuber, stock trader and technical analyst will try to sell you their wares (trying to at least get your attention for views, clicks, and/or to get you to purchase memberships, ads, or subscriptions). Don't bother. Get some rest and relaxation instead. The ES futures made a weekly "pinbar" or "spinning top" candle - the likes of which we have not seen in months. It is not confirmed yet. Still, it is a green pinbar which is a tad weaker than had it been a red-bodied candle.

ES Futures - Weekly - Pinbar

A one-candle pattern is not necessarily the end of the move. It could be, but it isn't confirmed. So, next week could confirm the candle - or not. We can count a five-wave-move, up, at several degrees of trend as we have exhaustively covered in the prior posts and charts. So, this could be the end of the wave. But the market today refused to rule out an (admittedly lower probability) hourly expanding diagonal option which is another way to make a more definitive high.

So, it is simple. The candle is either confirmed with a significantly lower confirming candle next week - or it is not - and it is invalidated with a higher high candle. Elliott analysts know how to handle both.

Have an excellent start to the weekend,

TraderJoe

Thin

It's getting thin up here in the SPY (cash) ETF contract. Volume is seriously declining as prices are rising. Sure, there could be a couple more days up. The question is, "is it worth the risk?"

SPY (Cash) ETF - Daily - Versus Volume

At least some bulls are apparently thinking, "maybe not". And what do the bears think? Try to find one to ask one.

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe

Continuation of Channel Count

The ES 2-hourly chart is below, continuing the count that was shown on the weekend. The count is both very mature and it is full of risk.

This count provides alternation between wave ii and wave iv. Elements of risk include 1) there was not yet a new higher high today, 2) today broke a closing only line on the ES 4-hr chart, and made a back-test of it (interested readers should verify this), 3) multiple RSI divergences are shown on this timeframe, 4) a wave structure this steep in so few days could wind up in a final diagonal, a final triangle or even a count failure, and 5) we have noted the current news risk several times already.

So, for now, a wave-counting-stop (WCS) has been placed below today's low.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe