Here is the daily chart of the cash S&P500 index. As we noted yesterday, a top 'could' have been in place with yesterday's waves. We'd like to better define that.
|S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Overlapping, Diverging and Wedging|
We have been noting for weeks the difficulty in counting the up wave as an impulse (because any number of 0 - 2 trend lines have been broken). We have also been noting the divergence with the new price highs and the daily Fisher Transform Oscillator shown on this chart.
Right now, the cash index, while closing on the low of the day, also closed exactly on the lower wedge trend line you see drawn in here. Today was a rather large red down candle, one of the largest if not the largest of any down candle since the December 24th rise began. But, what we'd like to point out is that IF the 2,765 level is exceeded lower, the Fibonacci ruler shown indicates that the degree of the waves would likely have to change from up to down. Barring that, there is one last chance for a new high - but I'm not holding my breath. And, such a new high could be a failure high or a truncation high, as well.
Caution is the by-word. There was one way to count five-waves down to a new low today, so that must be respected.
Let's see how it goes and take it step-by-step.
Have a good start to the weekend.