Less Absurd

Today in the comments for the prior posts I posted links to two charts I labeled as "Patently absurd" but still following the Elliott Wave rules. By the end of the day those counts had busted by narrow margins as I expected they might. Part of the reason for posting the links was to show what wild things are possible under the wave rules unless a good measure of adherence to the guidelines of wave formation is also thrown in the mix. So, below on the ES daily chart is the best interpretation of the current state of the waves given the extent of today's up movement. The key is not to let the truncation in the lower left be ignored.

ES Futures - Daily - To Minor A

I tried counting without the truncation, meh, I wasn't happy with the results and measurements have since likely busted. I did suggest in prior posts I could see a way we were still in the Minor A wave, but it needed new highs. Today provided them. And there is no sign the up wave is over. A clear reversal candle set, and a break of the new trend line is needed along with a back-test that fails. So far, we haven't had that. The truncation at the low, and the "running fourth wave" both spell strong conditions. 

And, the ES 2-hr chart which is its analog is shown below. The two waves are so self-similar (i.e. fractal) on different time scales it gives one goose bumps to consider it.

Yes, this sure is a weird wave minuette (v) of minute ⓥ. It is hugging the rail along the lower parallel line and keeps threatening - like a summer rainstorm that doesn't happen. But at some point, in the not-too-distant future, it should have a clear turn. The lack of fourth waves that don't make their downside targets is a learning experience to have up here at these extraordinarily high prices and against the daily Bollinger Bands.

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe