Tuesday, March 17, 2020

'Minimum' Impulse Requriement Met - 2

Nothing much has changed from yesterday, except the EWO has lifted a bit more towards the zero line. 

ES Futures - 4 Hr - EWO Green

See yesterday's post for the fourth wave options which would be 'longer in time' than the one shown. Keep one eye on the FED announcement tomorrow, and another on any firm agreement for a fiscal stimulus from Congress.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

39 comments:

  1. Time for a bounce...?

    https://12345abcdewxy.wordpress.com/2020/03/17/2020-mar-17/

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    Replies
    1. That does not look to me like an impulsive move off your prsumed low.

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    2. Dont' like it because wave 1 rarely if ever 50% of an impulse. Also, an ending diaganol is labeled 1-5, not A-E. If we are due for a big bounce, then its because we made a a zig zag down and we need a decent retrace before another zig zag. But, it sure seems like news/panic cycle we've got or about to finish the 3rd wave and thus just a 4, before the next big move down. My target has always been 1800-2050(since december to be honest, haha)

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    3. Fair point. Alternative ongoing decline scenario in comment section:
      https://12345abcdewxy.wordpress.com/2020/03/17/2020-mar-17/

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  2. the FOMC meeting is cancelled since they met Sunday night.

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    Replies
    1. I don't believe the above statement to be correct. FED page, still has the meeting list - just under "expedited procedures", meaning closed to the public.

      https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20200317closed.htm

      Where did you get your supposed information?
      TJ

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    2. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm&ved=2ahUKEwiooum_sqToAhUjgK0KHfYdD5cQFjAAegQIBhAC&usg=AOvVaw3ePzdjBtj83rhx6NcaFT-W&cshid=1584547295828

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    3. Thanks, conflicting information on the same site!

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  3. Watching this overnight.

    https://imgur.com/JVJcCf9

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    Replies
    1. Def a possibility as my original 3 target was lower but I called 3 finished and going with us in 4 now. But wouldn't be surprised if it went the other way.

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  4. for DAX, maybe something like this
    https://imgur.com/bmvR0pe

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  5. SPY keeps trading through circuit breaker and made new low

    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=SPY

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  6. Looks to me now like 2706 would be the end of big 4, now in or done 3 of an ED for big 5, the low is imminent and next will be min .5 retracement of the full wave. I'm guessing the low at 2300 - 2350.

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    Replies
    1. Alt, it's ending big 3 in the same fashion, with lower limit ~2330 SPX. Still possible.

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  7. Looking at the move from 2350 to 2706 - it is very deep, on the verge of being too deep, as a sub 4 of big 3 down. As a big 4, it is just shy of .38 retrace of big 3, which is more consistent with the crashing.

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    Replies
    1. correction, from about 2395, .38 retrace on cash, futures was a bit more I think. Same concept holds.

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  8. Update

    https://imgur.com/BaKfn8t

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  9. There is a clear, very small degree diagonal upward here. For a leading diagonal, the low must hold.

    https://invst.ly/q5qhv

    TJ

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  10. Looks like there was abc correction up and now a downward impulse.

    https://imgur.com/a/KNpiLH0

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  11. is this a barrier triangle ?

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  12. For those that think 3 can make 1.618, then there is a way to see ((iv)) of 3 as the barrier triangle.

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    Replies
    1. ..otherwise flat for wave 4, most likely (FED & econ stimulus announcement)

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  13. Replies
    1. It looks like only for 15 mins on CNBC news..
      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/stock-futures-fall-slightly-after-market-rebounds-on-hopes-for-1-trillion-stimulus.html

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    2. so is the ending diagonal complete or are we going down for the barrier triangle target?

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  14. Are we thinking we still need a barrier e wave?

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  15. 5 mins charts so far.

    https://imgur.com/a/CtTmiyQ

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  16. I am just providing some measurements at this point. It is the market that must tell us it is ready to turn. Still inside of 1.382 as of this point.

    https://invst.ly/q5ue7

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. looks like a running triangle and then the move down

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  17. ET, does this look line a diagonal forming ?

    https://imgur.com/a/eiwgRhe

    Wait and watch game to see if it holds.

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    Replies
    1. EWO signature is also matching with divergence at the lows.

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  18. Rally back into the triangle.

    https://invst.ly/q5w2k

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Rally occurred on Senate finding enough votes to pass the second of the smaller house stimulus bills.

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  19. A new post has been started for the next day.

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