https://invst.ly/q3jke
I say, 'or a 'C' wave because the alternate for 1,2,3 is A,B,C until it is not. It is very probable that Neely's rule of wave 2 always being longer in time than wave 1 is being put to the test here. But, based on the 'size' or measurements of the waves, degree considerations still work.
A flat wave up was never confirmed by crossing the (b) wave higher. The market was looking for the President to lay out clear plans for fiscal stimulus, and instead, he laid out clear plans for economic contraction by curtailing travel to Europe.
Regardless, the market is exceptionally disjointed due to circuit breakers interrupting trading at unspecified times during the day. I do not think we are making a diagonal downward as the zigzags are multiple zigzags.
Update after the close
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - A Third Wave of Some Type |
We have not concluded that wave minute ((v)) of 3 has ended yet. Nor have we concluded that wave Minor 3 has ended yet. The only conclusion reached is that since wave minute ((iii)) of 3 is shorter than minute ((i)) of 3, that wave minute ((v)) of 3 must remain shorter than minute ((iii)) of 3. So far, it is much shorter.
At the settlement, wave 3 is 1.272 x 1. Since wave 2 is a 50% retracement (and not a 38%) then wave 3 is allowed to become the extended wave. That means it could easily travel to 1.618 x 1. We are not there yet. As I have said before, the worst mistake one can make in a trending market is to assume it will reverse.
The significant lesson learned is that very, very clearly second waves are not always longer in time than their first waves. Wave 2 was close, but not exact. Wave ((ii)) is not even close.
However, note in this count, that all of wave 3 is, indeed, below a line from 0 - 2. Further, minute ((i)) takes less time, and covers less price than Minor 1. Also, minute wave ((ii)) takes less time and covers less price than Minor 2. So, degree labeling is being adhered to.
And, once we can determine where wave 3 ends, then we will determine if a better overall parallel channel can be formed.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
if minute ((v)) of 3 must remain shorter than minute ((iii)) of 3, how can 3 reach 1.618 x 1?
ReplyDeleteI'm speaking 'hypothetically' now. Wave ((iv)) currently would seem remarkably short in 'time' compared to wave ((ii)). What if it formed a running triangle and dropped the location of the end of (iv)? That 'might' allow it to happen. I am not putting it beyond this market to whip us mercilessly.
DeleteTJ
Yes that would actually work.
Delete..also see reply to BBRider, below.
DeleteI think the fed spike is a four of the last decline. My sub-waves may not be perfect.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/Rkh6Z2h
..very possible there could be one smaller sub-division in there, which might allow minute ((iii)) to move lower.
DeleteI was looking at some stocks and stumbled onto small banks and other financials. in 2009 they all made a low before the general market. they've been dropping for two years now and looks like making a low now or soon
DeleteYeah that's what I had. Covered at the end of the day whoosh. Now to expect a retrace of the entire move?
DeleteBased on your current labeling, and applying to Dow futures, it appears its ((3)) > ((1)) by a smidge. fwiw. But, like you say, its still early.
ReplyDeleteThat's ok from a degree labeling perspective. But, it would be odd if ((iii)) got longer than 1, without absolutely showing it is made up of smaller and smaller degree waves.
DeleteJoe, you're amazing...I learned something completely new from you yet again. Thank you!
ReplyDelete((iii))) stopped were it needed to be shorter than 1.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/JigznEl
DeleteThis I think is the 4 in the above. 1.618 times 1 is at around 2260.
DeleteI think we can get there and not have ((5)) be longer than 1
Deleteunder e wave of what I think was b of ((iv))
DeleteLimits down hit, now limit up hit. It's why I try to sleep at night.
ReplyDelete(From CNBC) Stocks set to surge following worst day since the ’87 crash, S&P 500 futures hit ‘limit up’.
TJ
Here is the ES 15-min fractal structure for today, and alligator. Fractal breaks lower 'under' the alligator generally indicate down-trend resuming.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q3zpx
Remember, as a fourth wave remember this could evolve into a whippy triangle or flat.
TJ
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ReplyDeletePresident to declare National emergency can t be good news for the stocks can it?
ReplyDeleteIf overlap with up wave, might be forming expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/707Ichs
Invalidated.
DeleteI was watching that for overlap as well. Could it be morphing into a slightly larger expanding diagonal?
DeleteExpanding leading diagonal might be still in place if v is failed here ?
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/InIWV0o
What I was watching
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/7XiM48O
Anything wrong with this triangle?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q41ri
or this
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q424v
NDX futures is 1.6% from overlapping wave 1..did we just finish an intermediate degree WXY already??
DeleteTo get some of the three under the channel which would be normal this may be going on.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/MOCg6mi
It appears that even if the daily S&P 500 futures close positive today, the slow stoch. could be embedding and price making it back to the right side of the lower bb. https://invst.ly/q4295
ReplyDeleteat top channel line
ReplyDeleteReal deep but still hanging on.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/kJDHE9L
Doesn't your triangle count better as 1-2-i-ii ?
DeleteShow me what your thinking. I am having a hard time seeing sets of 2.
DeleteYour ((4)didnt cross into ((1)? I still believe in the leading contracting diagonal with throw over. Now recovered the lower boundary. You said it broke some rule?
Delete@BBRider https://invst.ly/q4313
DeleteI believe ((1)) is at 2715. 2695.25 is part of ((2)) correction.
DeleteIn the leading contracting diagonal, 5 is longer than 3 which is not allowed and it broke the EWO divergence on wave 5.
@Erik B, The angle of accent on i is less than (i) and it never made a new high over the b wave bar. Not sure it breaks any rules, but sure not very visibly appealing.
ReplyDeleteSunday night should tell, my count is on thin ice.
With the triangle, there is two equal waves off the bottom but looks very ugly being so deep for a fourth wave.
DeleteInteresting to note from Zerohedge, NYSE composite has overlap with 2007 highs.
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend all.
Thanks boss. Im looking at the cash and 5 is longer than 3 but does the throw over really count to invalidate? For an ending diagonal it wouldnt right?
ReplyDeletealso, prechter says the format can be 53535, which I think I can make work on the cash
ReplyDeleteThe current chart pattern is very similar to Oct. - Dec. 2018. Except the movement is 3 times bigger. The down trend ended at 200 week SMA. I suspect that this down trend will end at 200 Month SMA and that is roughly 3 time point loss of previous one in 1700 area. Let's see if this turns out to be the case
ReplyDeleteBut is the former minute ((c)) wave upward still possible ?
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletethe ES pattern seems to be a clear inverted head and shoulders bottom with a possible target of 2774 (.382 fib of the entire move down). I do think it was a temp bottom and the ECB and Fed may help with the push upwards.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteIt's also the .5 area of the previous swing high. https://www.tradingview.com/x/vKWLsksq/
DeleteWeekly S&P 500 futures closed outside the lower bb with the slow stoch. pointing down: https://invst.ly/q48dn
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete