From the same charts we have been showing for days, you can now discern for yourself there is a clear pattern of 'five-waves-down' that meets the minimum requirements for an impulse. The only question remaining is whether wave 4 finds a better pattern of alternation.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Five Waves Down at Minimum |
Wave 4 could still turn out to be a flat wave, or a running triangle, as in the illustrations below. This is because we note there are only 104 candles on the above chart, and not the 120 - 160 recommended by The Eight Fold Path Method.
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| Additional Ways Wave 4 Could Extend in Time |
If wave Minor 4 wants to extend in time, that is perfectly okay with me. Right now it could do so as a Flat wave or as a "running triangle" as the wave after Minor 3 is lower than 3.
Such a pattern might allow wave 5 to reach a more typical length of 5 = 1. But, it needs to be said, that with trading halts, a FED meeting and a potential legislative stimulus package ahead, the best that can be done is to count the internal wave sequences, keep and open mind, and see if the Elliott Wave Oscillator returns to the zero line.
I will once again caution readers to 'self-censor' nasty comments being posted that have nothing to do with an Elliott Wave count. Such comments may cause the commenting mode to go to 'moderated only' or to be discontinued all-together. I clearly have better things to do with my time than to clean-up the words of those who can not be professional and/or stick to the topic at hand.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Agree. With today in the books, Friday - Monday looks more like A - B.
ReplyDeleteTrader joe whats your view on elliot international calling it nested 1,2, i ii which would suggest this goes to below 1000.
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can tell, they already have a degree violation that i is longer than 1.
DeleteHi Joe,
ReplyDeleteI've been using mostly volume charts for years, and link is to 400,000 volume chart with 135 bars since the high. Does the EWO imply that we may have just finished 3 today? Don't hesitate to delete if you find this inappropriate or confusing.
Thanks again
https://imgur.com/a/wNApaOZ
.. i don't get why you ask this question. It's not like the last candle made a lower low at the end of the day, or anything. Both the volume-based and price-based EWO are on a divergence. So, I really see nothing that is different.
DeleteI was wondering if the low may have been v of 3 rather than 5 as per your chart, and we would still have waves 4 and 5 ahead of us
Delete..it still would not have (yet) made a 1.618 wave.
DeleteTJ, I cannot even begin to describe how much your posts/comments since the start of the crash has helped me with trading. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteAn interim SPX count, 30-min timeframe...
ReplyDeletehttps://12345abcdewxy.wordpress.com/2020/03/16/2020-mar-16/
..this count is done without regard to momentum (indicator), and will likely run into trouble.
Delete40pts away from cash SPX diagonal completing in less time than it took to create - if that is the change of degree / pattern we are looking at
ReplyDelete2700 Tue/Wed --> 2300 Thu/Fri/Mon --> 3000 Early May
ReplyDelete(iv) of ((v)) of 3 as a triangle.
ReplyDeleteSorry was not logged in.
Deletestill in wave 3 in ES ?
Delete@BBRider .. possible! but the new lows are needed today for that count, and degree labeling will need to be checked closely. As I said before, a triangle could even out some of the degrees.
DeleteLooks like a barrier triangle, would be great if we got a flush down to the 1.618 which is around 2265ish.
ReplyDeletethat would be area for "wicking" out of the channel. I have buys around there. Is Gold doing a C wave up now?
DeleteBB do you have a chart for the barrier triangle? Because what I think would be the C up wave within the triangle has not hit any where near the .618 of what I think the b wave down of the triangle is so I am thinking a flat of some sort at the moment. Unless B of the triangle finished with the low today and now we are on the C wave up.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/cCg45yp
ET, Sorry about the labels B? and A? they should be of (B?) and (A?) with the triangle as the alternate.
Delete@Tjchuck. I am with you on it being in C now if it is a barrier triangle.
ReplyDeleteTwo problems I see with a C at the moment of barrier triangle.
Delete1. The slope is very steep (I think ET mentioned that the slope of a C wave in a triangle is typically shallower than the b wave).
2. Still has not reached .618 of B down
I think I am still with C up of a flat.
Good call, triangle did not work. Entertaining a contracting diagonal downward.
Delete90% retrace of up wave yesterday and now testing the trendline & 34 ema.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/AzrS9bT
Retrace @ 10.45 is more in length than other two minor pull backs (28.5 vs 27.75 and 22.5). If that is counted as ii, then we have 5 waves getting formed. 15 mins chart looks better visually.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/0vt6Ya9
Clutter removed. Had useless fib retracement in there.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/a/CFgkIrG
Now into an impulse upward.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q5b29
TJ
..and ((5)) should remain shorter than ((3)).
DeleteInline with you ET, thnx for the chart.
DeleteCan you get a new user name =) kind of confusing.
Delete-TJ
Could 2542.75 been 2 of a contracting diagonal downward from 2696.75?
ReplyDeleteWouldn't surprise me if this market waterfalled in the next 3 days...judt doing a series of 1,2,'s minus 8K to 10K
ReplyDeleteDownward correction now has more bars than upward wave 'a'. And prior upward wave reached over 90% legitimately.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q5dr4
TJ
(From Investing.com) EU closes borders for 30-days.
ReplyDeleteTriangle or Flat equally acceptable, subject to the usual invalidations.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q5dzx
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete