Today, in the comments, we showed an internal count of an impulse up, and then a diagonal. The diagonal took much more time to make than the impulse, and it did not exceed the impulse high. (That chart may be seen at this LINK.) Because the diagonal 'took more time' than the impulse, it should be of the same or higher degree than the impulse.
In other words, today's internal count can be a-b-c upward.
So, we have been showing this potential downward count in the ES 4 hour futures as the 'minimum' impulse lower.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Minimum Impulse Lower |
We said that wave Minor 4 can become longer in time than wave Minor 2 and alternate with it by becoming a FLAT wave. And that would mean a lower fifth wave. As of yet, Congress has yet to report out a major stimulus bill. What if they don't tonight, or if prices make a new low for some other reason? Then, it seems this alternate would be able to be applied.
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| ES Future - 4 Hr - Potential Diagonal Lower |
Again, this count is only made possible by today's internal count and possible failure wave Minor 4. Such a count would now diverge against the Elliott Wave Oscillator in the manner expected. But, a lower low would be expected. Here is the kicker. If this count played out, then most would expect to find resistance at the upper channel line, and it might not be there.
From a degree labeling perspective, wave Minor 2 would be larger in price than minute ((b)) of Minor 1. And, it might explain why minute ((b)) of Minor 1, is shorter in time than minute ((a)) of Minor 1. Still, and I need to emphasize this, this count was simply not even plausible before today. As it is, wave Minor 4 in this count is a tad longer in time than wave Minor 2, but at least waves Minor 2 and Minor 4 would then be of the same degree.
For this count, a new lower wave Minor 5 low must be made, and it must be in a zigzag. Further, Minor wave 5 would need to remain shorter than Minor wave 3.
Personally speaking, with as much fun as I have with the markets, this is where I get my sleep over-night, let the "Smart Money" decide how this goes, and then try to deal with the result - whichever it is.
Have a good start to evening.
TraderJoe
Q: Why do you analyse the futures market with Elliott Wave? Isn't the cash market more suited to Elliott Wave analysis? Overnight, the futures drop in liquidity and participation, and hence, create noise and choppy corrective waves.
ReplyDeleteIf the following cash market count is correct, then would speculate a bottom tomorrow at either ~2252 or ~2193...
https://12345abcdewxy.wordpress.com/2020/03/19/2020-mar-19/
lol .. right .. tell someone (not me) who lost 100 S&P points on the night of Trump's election, or on one of these overnight breaks of 2,000 Dow points that the futures don't matter. To answer more directly, 1) the professionals - or Smart Money - use the futures because of the leverage, and 2) it is easier to gauge the 'time' parameter, using futures.
DeleteI notice again that your count is without regard to momentum indicator (none displayed anyway), and it is without regard to 'time'. Therefore, I wish such charts would not be posted.
TJ
At the time of Ralph Nelson Elliott, there was no EWO indicator. Although the EWO (or any another momentum indicator) may be useful, it isn't entirely infallible. Hence, I shared my interpretation in the spirit of covering all plausible scenarios to consider and critique as part of learning. Thank you for your analysis, appreciated.
DeleteWhy are you so argumentative? Elliott referred to it simply as "Speed" of the move, and always compared it to volume, as well. Being the excellent mathematician he was, he could calculate a simple "rate of change" as in twenty-points-per-week, or fifty-points-per-week as well as anyone. And he knew what a minus sign was, too.
DeleteThis was an amazing discovery. It also fits stocks like AAPL and MSFT and explains the choppiness.
ReplyDelete; )
DeleteJoe thanks for your clear work and thinking. I've a simple question the fall into December 2018 was your A and rise into Feb/Mar 2020 was your B. Is this wave potentially all of your C?
ReplyDeleteThe first chart is a decent count up to 4. Why can't the ED be wave 5?
ReplyDelete..then 3 would have to be ((i)) of such a diagonal .. and there would have to be proven waves ((iii)), ((iv)) and ((v)) yet. And, I wasn't the one to say "can't".
DeleteI now see that ES does not have a valid ED after 4 like SPX does. Nevermind.
DeleteThanks for the charts ET, I am in sync with you. Shared both charts yesterday with you. Thanks for sharing your charts. That validates my learning !!!
ReplyDeleteWelcome. I have reviewed a number of your posts, particularly the one that starts, "Does this look like a diagonal is forming"? And it is very difficult for me to follow such posts because, 1) the degree symbols are not in context, 2) several of the same degree symbols are used on charts close together, 3) you don't reference time, or 4) compare to other waves in the sequence. I'm just being honest here. Yes, a lot of people noted the contraction at the lows. But, it is my goal to show how Elliott analysts, using the same 'rules', regarding price, time and degree can arrive at the same conclusion. So, yes, hopefully some counts will converge.
DeleteThanks for your inputs ET!, I will keep them in mind while doing the analysis.
DeleteI think one can make an argument that from 2262 there is an impulse, a wacky triangle and move out to last nights high. I sure hope the second chart is right. It would make sense of all the really odd waves all the way down.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, about all we can say is that price has contacted the EMA-34 on the 4-Hr chart. It's a very overlapping bottom so far, and can still be a larger triangle or a FLAT. Welcome to fourth waves (i.e. The Fourth Wave Conundrum). As far as I can tell, it is not the disproportionate diagonal in the second chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q6p1b
I will leave open the possibility that the triangle corrected for the degree violations (just like Minor Wave 4 did in January & February 2018), and that Minor 3 is at the 1.618 low.
TJ
a green friday followed by a crash on monday. that is how it has been going lately....
DeleteKAVI
Despite the big rally yesterday, daily CL has moved to the right side of the lower bb, is still below the moving averages and still embedded: https://invst.ly/q6q4a
ReplyDeleteET... my data indicates that your label for 2 is a high that is slightly lower than the previous local high. Is that because of channeling or some other reason? Sorry if this was dealt with previously. Thanks.
ReplyDelete...end of failure wave ..
DeleteJust saying there is a potential larger hourly triangle here. Yes, it could expand upwards, but there are also lots of down hourly fractals here, too.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q6qnf
TJ
ES hourly, bearish engulfing candle. Chart update is below.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q6r9t
TJ
..according to Investing.com, the first fractal back has been exceeded lower.
DeleteExpanding diagonal below ?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/a/36fgF9t
Price has now broken the second lower fractal back, and is now working on the third fractal back. There are two plausible counts. The blue count and the magenta count. Again, it is the classic fourth wave conundrum.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/q6tgd
TJ
Third down fractal back has now been broken lower.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q6tmq
TJ
..the down wave is now a true 90% wave lower, making a 'Flat' wave possible, for the larger wave 4; or the start of the impulse 5, lower.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/q6tzy
TJ
.. in the after hours, the futures took out that fourth down fractal lower.
Delete