Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Divergence Maintained - 2

For a third day, the Elliott Wave Oscillator still diverges from price. Prices gapped down in the overnight, and when the cash market opened, they became very choppy immediately, and just ground and whipped around.

The cash market made a lower low, the futures market did not by the settlement, but it could. At any rate the count likely remains that of a FLAT wave.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Still Diverging

Prices would need to get up over the most recent b wave to better confirm a flat wave in progress. 

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe


80 comments:

  1. Can you show the flat you referring too ?

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    1. what? from 1, the minute ((a)), higher, minute ((b)) lower, and minute ((c)) higher to 2 would be the flat.

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  2. So you don't see a diagonal off the top or another impulse lower without a c wave rally up from here of several hundred sp points? I have 50% chance of wave degree higher from here so I'm wondering what is your option on the other 50%

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  3. oh ok thanks for clarifying et

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  4. fully recognize this is a wave counting site...yet it is all the better when the waves align with technicals, etc...have a look at the SPX weekly 200 SMA...it is currently at 2640...if the SPX dropped to the area of 2640 by Monday or Tuesday would that be consistent with your current wave count?

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  5. New Es low takes out a larger 4 of the Contracting diagonal.

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    1. so far stopped at 1.618 of ((a))

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    2. This is the only diagonal I see that makes any sense. Not saying it is right, just the only one I can make work.

      https://imgur.com/WLn46jI

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    3. We would now be in overthrow of the diagonal.

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    4. 2443 would be limit for diagonal but I would think if circuit breaker kicks in diagonal would be in extreme jeopardy.

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  6. ET, from 2009 to wherever you place the top - some call that 5 waves up a 1 of 5 to come, currently in the 2.

    What do you say to that?

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  7. Elliot Wave... best hindsight system in existence. Your just guessing.

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  8. Cant imagine the trigger going off and central bankers not on the phone all night.
    Too risky for me, but wish all here the best of luck.

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  9. This is the same contracting diagonal on the cash I was looking at today. Futures now catching up. cash didnt quite make the lower boundary, I guess it will tomorrow tho. I hope its true. I was hoping more that it would be the flat. 1,2 (1)(2) etc and its going to be beyond brutal. What is the usual retrace on one of these leading diagonals?

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  10. "For a third day, the Elliott Wave Oscillator still diverges from price"

    Joe, why do you use 240 min chart ? As I learn from you and Williams, I always try to have more than 120 and less than 170 bars in the period analysed. So, in a 3 hours chart there is no divergence until yesterday close.

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    1. And with 2 hour chart (157 bars from top to yesterday close) it is still more clear to doubt of the flat option.

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  11. but he is wrong most of time even when he guess

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    1. Most of market timers audited by "timer digest" are wrong that days. This is not an easy market. A lot of analysts of prestige gave buy signal March 10th.

      And it is necessary to accept that we are at a world crisis never viewed before, with the absolutely volatile sentiments. The sentiments guide the waves.

      I do not fail never because I never say nothing. This is the easy option.

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    2. i hear you. its one thing to be right 20/30 percent and then less than 5 percent. at some point one should revisit the analysis they are doing to see that they can improve not keep on doing the same everyday

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    3. See here: http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/02/now-you-know-why.html
      ET has been negative and he told you February 24, 2020. He is not providing trading advice, he is just trying to count waves.

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    4. @grr Even with current count, Joe noted that current retracement ((a)) could be all of 2.

      https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Bu8J8N1aE04/XmAf5Z0KM-I/AAAAAAAAI5s/auNx7Ny0bFsdkGxRu6lFB5D4cu9qYDADQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/ES%2B4-Hr%2B202000304%2BCount.png

      But guys, one supposes that you have intelligence and capacity of analysis and that you read properly all the posts, and it is necessary that you have some memory.

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  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  13. https://imgur.com/a/bBsPXys

    https://imgur.com/a/SqrNU8d

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  14. ym and nq locked up. Diagonal count is still valid but no sign of reversal.

    The hard thing for me on this decline is that the internal waves just count like crap. I would think a 12 12 12 count would count better internally. In the past when I see bad internal waves, I usually end up being in a diagonal.

    Maybe this market is so bad, that all you can get is running corrections, flats and news driven moves.

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    1. Without showing how to count 2 and 4 as simple zz, no need to discuss diagonal

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    2. I disagree, have read that they need to be in the ZZ family, not simple.

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    3. The only count I can think off that works from here is 1-2-i-ii. ((b)) is to deep for the flat bec it's deeper than bigger degree 1 down, and 2/4 is double zigzgags, so diagonal also very unlikely?

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    4. Where have you read that? I would gladly take part of that.

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    5. It was on a list of rules and guidelines somebody linked here. But its just words. I have never seen some actual data to validate either opinion. Its like the rule on the distance of B wave travel. Everybody has a number but I have not seen any study on the matter.

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  15. 'Circuit breakers' activated on ES

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  16. How about this? https://imgur.com/z0kLJN8

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    1. That is very interesting. Never caught that we are at two equal moves. Also of note, is the angle of decent is less on the second move.

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    2. Would be a real kick in the noggin if we are only at 1 of larger diagonal.

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  17. Assuming Investing.com has correct prices this morning, at the open, prices traded low enough to break a ((b)) wave. In other words, calling it a ((b)) wave would create a degree violation, as the second down wave is longer than the first down wave, and price is now below the 'base channel'.

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  18. Per CNBC - S&P 500 drops 7%, triggering NYSE ‘circuit breaker’ trading halt for 15 minutes.

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  19. On NYA can you believe all of Trumps stock market is gone.

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  20. You can laugh, but I am married and used to it, but 53535 contracting leading diagonal from ATH is good till 2450.5 ES

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  21. The INDU, Transports, and Russell 2000 have exceeded their December 2018 lows.

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  22. et will you have a chart today in real time we may follow along and comment too?

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  23. LD still in place. Around 40 points to get invalidated.

    https://imgur.com/a/pYwRlXs

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    1. Worry is with 89 candles, EWO is not showing any divergence for 5th wave.
      Not comfortable with this count. We will see.

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    2. Had to customize the time frame, but here is 150 candles.

      https://imgur.com/JZQIiQ3

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  25. I was thinking about this, in this wave 2 has taken more time than wave 1 &
    down wave can be counted as i of 3. Do you guys see any invalidation ?

    https://imgur.com/a/6fNpW4Z

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    1. That appears to be the best option at this point E_D_T.

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  26. I dont know about invalidation, but they usually channel better in my experience.

    https://imgur.com/HGypOpN
    https://imgur.com/GnfzkUu

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  27. At this point in the month, monthly S&P 500 cash is approaching its lower bb. The slow stoch. is testing the 50 area. Prior touches in the last 11 years are where reversals took place. However, if the slow stoch. continues down to the lower end, as in 2007, a rally up to the 18ma may be all one can hope for. https://imgur.com/z0kLJN8

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  28. ET, I was wondering if we did not get a horrible failure in gold with your idea of a contracting ending diagonal.

    https://imgur.com/xDwOeDv

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  29. If the diagonal does not hold the angles of decent only point to sets of 2.

    https://imgur.com/kEfYRVx

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    1. I'm with the contracting diagonal with throw-over. soon will be back over the lower boundary

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  30. So, this is the way I was taught to count Elliott Waves. The 'base channel' has been broken lower. There is now another parallel acceleration channel which is shown on the chart. As long as prices continue to decline, and/or the EWO makes a new low, and as long as prices remain in the acceleration channel, then a third wave (or a 'C') wave should be respected.

    https://invst.ly/q3jke

    I say, 'or a 'C' wave because the alternate for 1,2,3 is A,B,C until it is not. It is very probable that Neely's rule of wave 2 always being longer in time than wave 1 is being put to the test here. But, based on the 'size' or measurements of the waves, degree considerations still work.

    A flat wave up was never confirmed by crossing the (b) wave higher. The market was looking for the President to lay out clear plans for fiscal stimulus, and instead, he laid out clear plans for economic contraction by curtailing travel to Europe.

    Regardless, the market is exceptionally disjointed due to circuit breakers interrupting trading at unspecified times during the day. I do not think we are making a diagonal downward as the zigzags are multiple zigzags.

    TJ

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    1. ..also, there is no clear indication minute (iii)) is over yet. It is just a place-holder at this point. Everything depends on wave 'measurements'.

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    2. yes - that was the count i asked about at top of post thanks

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    3. at 5:54 pm yesterday before the crater selloff - at top pf blog

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    4. @marc .. you, of all people, should know by now that all I do is 'follow the fractals' - example shown.

      https://invst.ly/q3lvw

      An up count could have occurred if the FED and the President acted together and on time. They did not. So the down fractals were broken. Dealing with fractals is objective. And when I said the (b) wave fractal had to be broken to better confirm a flat in progress, I meant it. It did not happen. So? So, it only clarifies the count that's all. My ego is 'not' wrapped up in wave counting.

      When I say, "(b) should be broken to better confirm the flat", I mean it. I can watch the President, and watch the market tank in the overnight too, and then, Monday-morning quarterback as well as anybody.

      TJ

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    5. yes - i was just asking in real time what the alternative was - how would it be counted - i was indifferent 50%...i'm not that well versed on the fractals

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  31. (From CNBC) Dow cuts losses by more than half after Fed announces new dramatic funding actions to combat crisis.

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  32. That spike caused degree violations in cash I believe -> this 3 can't extend, and spike needs to be 4?

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    1. and since 3 was shorter than 1 in cash, 5 will be even shorter?

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    2. (I'm talking ((5)) degree not 1)

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  33. A question regarding charting stocks. For EW purposes, should dividend adjusted or non adjusted price data be used?

    Thanks.

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    1. So, if you are plotting SPY versus $SPX, then SPY includes dividends, and so sometimes SPY makes a new high/low where $SPX does not. In that case the dividends are taken care of for you. Some charting programs do not even give the option to adjust a stock for dividends. I would tend to keep the price-change portion of charting separate from the bond-like nature of a stock. But, that would just be my preference, and it is not a recommendation.

      TJ

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  34. I'll try one more time.

    We are in the 'A' wave of a major bear market. At first, I thought like 1937. But now I believe it is like 1929. As I said before, big bear markets accelerate downward in their 'A' waves. 'A' waves are associated with financial crashes. After the 'A' wave, there comes a dead-cat bounce 'B' wave. In 1930, that lasted 4 months. But the 'A' wave breaks the economy due to massive liquidation of financial assets. So then the economy goes into a serious recession or depression. That's the 'C' wave of the bear.

    So in terms of counting waves, where are we? Wave #1 down was the mini-crash, -16%. Wave #2 was the rebound from that from Feb 28 through Mar 4. We are now in iii of 3, the worst of the 'A' waves components. I think the pace is accelerating toward a waterfall decline next Monday. I could be wrong, but let's see how it plays out.

    Fast996 explained all this to this board on March 5th.

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    1. 'A' is the entirely wrong label down. So, your comments are water off a duck's back.

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    2. Yeah. In DEW (Dave's Elliott Wave), bear markets are A-B-C affairs. That may not be consistent with the labels true EW practitioners use. I apologize for that.

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  35. are there any fib numbers we could be looking at for this market to hold? i am not very good at seeing retracements

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  36. ES futures have new lower low; FED up wave defeated.

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  37. Diagonal officially in the trash can.

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  38. Diagonal yes, but not bigger wedge, sentiment is extreme

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  39. A new post has been started for the next day.

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  40. 100 points close to invalidating the degree here where i will be greater than 1.

    https://imgur.com/a/ZVA0sWj

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