What's It All About?

I'm going to post a chart I posted earlier. Many of you will look at the count, shake your head, and ask "why is he posting an incorrect chart?" The chart is of the U.S. Dollar Index. When I posted the chart, I specifically stated, "The longer term analysis indicates the dollar should not go over the high." That's why the A-B-C clear alternate was posted on the chart. And I said so in the comments.

DX Futures - 2 Hr - A-B-C

Clearly, the chart had the makings of the fourth wave at the point market minute ((c)) of 4. It was a perfect 38% retrace. And the EWO was in reasonable territory. Did it hold? It did not. This is what it's all about. It is about the FED spending unlimited resources (literally) to bend the Elliott waves into less recognizable patterns, or at least ones that trap the greatest number of participants into leaving their profits in the market.

Did the minute ((b)) wave make a new high for a fifth wave? It did not. Is there a clear "third of a third" on the EWO? There is not. Are there a clear five waves down from 3 to minute ((a))? There are not. It looks more like a "three" than any wave I have seen. Are there are clear five waves up to minute ((b)), so it would be a fifth wave instead? There are not.

The FED knows the only way they can help is to "bend the yardstick"; it is to "change the ruler". This chart shows clearly how they have done that. They need to lower the Dollar, not see it increase. They need to make sure that wave counters have "the most difficult time possible". And, they do it by changing the yardstick - whenever they wish. They can add and drain resources to the market unseen to the retail trader, and force the "Smart Money" to make maneuvers based on what they, with better access, can glean from the treasury market and open market operations.

Does this mean that The Eight Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse does not work? No, it means the opposite. The Eight Fold Path Method was developed for precisely this reason. As the methods states, "1-2-3 is the same as A-B-C until it is not."

So, what does it mean for U.S. stocks? It means that while a Minor fourth wave is not invalidated yet, the odds of it occurring correctly have dropped. The parameters are pushed out to the max, making it even-odds only, or less-than even-odds, as opposed to yesterday where the odds favored the fourth wave at the location in which that wave ended.

The key lesson is this. They are playing a game against you, and they are doing it with your tax dollars and the lack of interest that they pay to retirees in their savings accounts. They do not want five-waves-down in the U.S. equity market. They don't want it because they know it will signal to most people even a greater drop ahead. True fact: they have even announced to you that they are doing this - just minus the focus on the Elliott Wave. They say they are doing it to try to increase inflation, or increase employment, or improve the economy. Whatever the faux reason - they are doing it.

I can not fight a trillion dollars. I can only try to count the waves it makes or the waves it does not make. As I have often said, "I do not make markets; I can only try to count them."

ES Futures - Daily - Wave 4 at Risk

Have a great rest of the evening.
TraderJoe