ES futures prices were higher overnight absorbing 'some' of the first-of-the-month money. But because this first trading day was split between a Monday & Tuesday (some business models call the end of the month the last Friday of the month), the impact was muted, and prices did not even make it back to the 18-day SMA. The situation in the Ukraine continued to deteriorate, and prices headed lower.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Turned Back at 18-SMA |
With reference to the ES 8-hr count shown over the weekend at this LINK, last night's high appears to be the (c) wave of the minute ((b)) wave, up, of Minor 5. We are now trying to count a first wave downward, (i) of ((c)) of Minor wave 5. With last night's higher high, the swing line has not formally turned lower, yet, but it could if lower lows are made tomorrow.
Tonight is the President's first State of the Union address. The overnight prices should be monitored to see if there are any 'surprise' announcements, and, if so, what impact they have on the market.
Regardless, I would put a 'wave-counting-stop' above today's high. Any price movement above it should be a warning that the count of a downward diagonal might not work out.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
SPX - breadth update -
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Rbob is up to the top of the channel on the Monthly.
ReplyDeleteES - late look -
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ES - morning update
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Reversed (3boxes) and has reversed again (to Xs). 4350 triggers a bullish catapult.
DeleteES,VIX - current
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The small reversal (1st PB) has a target of 4520.
DeleteTesting prior peak
DeleteWTI - losing steam ?
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Addendum - Traps
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If you draw a trendline off of the two number 2's there's only been one close above the line for the 4 wave. And it held todays rally so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/i/gIJ1qkjN/
You might double check me, but it looks like your 3rd of A is the shortest.
DeleteI took the count from TJ's chart on Feb 27. It looks better on a 1 or 2 hour chart but it doesn't look right on the daily.
DeleteES,WTI,BTC - late night status check - [if interested]
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Good morning. Here is cash SPY. There are two options in both cash & futures.
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The red count is still currently the alt count. The trend line is one likely test, but trading below wave black iv would be another.
TJ
Thanks TJ,
DeleteI was just rereading weekend post. What will invalidate primary B? A new high or trading abv 4700 in es ? Yesterday bank of Canada has increased interestbrate by .50% to manage inflation. Do you think it will set the tone.
..cash opening gap is now closed. From a wave-counting-perspective, I need to see a retrace that does not exceed the high.
DeleteTJ
SPX 30m - current (candles)
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Addendum -
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SPX 3-min: very short term view. The up wave was 'longer in time than the down wave', and has not yet exceeded the high.
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Near term up trend line was busted. Likely that the near-term down trend line has to hold for a further move down.
TJ
ES 60-min: expanding to a more hourly view. Price has come down to the daily pivot point P, and is nearing and hourly up trend line.
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Hourly fractals are noted too.
TJ