Outside Day Up

With yesterday's lowest close day for the down move (so far), today started out in the futures with a lower low day, then reversed to make an outside day up. As such, it probably makes the best day to signify a truncation of a contracting diagonal down wave - if one is going to occur. The ES daily chart is below.

Today's move took undercut the first down (red) fractal back which may serve as a 'trap fractal'. Meaning sellers incorrectly sell the morning breakout. Of course, it is clear that occurred right against the lower daily Bollinger Band (where to paraphrase Ira Epstein, "the Smart Money is likely lightening up on some of its positions".) Prices rose, but did not attain the 18-day SMA, aka "the line in the sand."

Notice the number of daily fractals that have formed. With tomorrow's FED meeting result, there are lots of possible outcomes including just lots of volatility that may be initially difficult to count. So, I am sure there are many who will be idle until they know the results and see the presser following. The up wave from the 5 AM morning low (question: who keeps making those 3 am and 5 am morning lows in the futures?) is a bit funky to count. Right now it may be an incomplete wave that we need to keep our eye on.

With today's low just ticks below the 08 March 2022 wave (in other words > 90% to qualify for a Flat wave) on an hourly chart, there are lots and lots of ways this wave could play out and still complete a full non-truncated diagonal lower. Flat waves and triangle waves can be included in this mix, but there is as of now nothing I see that is definitive.

On the intraday ES 30-min wave-counting screen we use, the market ended with the intraday bias up while the daily bias is down. That pretty much sums up the messy waves we are seeing right now. Comments are temporarily back on moderation. It may take me a few minutes/hours for approval with the FED meeting tomorrow.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe