Yesterday, we said we could only count a 5-3-5 wave down during the session. Higher highs were possible. Today those higher highs were made making the first time we can count fives-waves-up since the likely truncation lows. This applies to both the ES futures and the SPY cash 15-minute chart shown below with about 162 candles.
Both the second wave and fourth wave locations are clearly seen on the Elliott Wave Oscillator EWO), and the EMA-34 through the waves indicates good form and proportion to them. This is not a diagonal or a triangle. It's just a grinding, non-overlapping impulse upward. The caveat is that the fifth wave, v, may not be completed yet. There is a barrier triangle at the high - which was counted out live and in real time - and the low of the triangle needs to be exceeded lower before a down move can be considered.
This impulse took days to form. Then it is a question of how deep any correction would be, and how long it would take. Interesting stuff.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Interesting that within iii, the 0-((2)) TL easily cuts through ((3)), the "third of a third" "signature" wave. Ouch, lol.
ReplyDeleteWith the second wave near equality and the nature of the waves I am inclined to think ZZZ.
DeleteSo I took care to see that all of iii is above 0 - ii. Nowhere have I seen it published that every subwave of iii must do so. Is there a reference you have in mind?
DeleteTJ
So it doesn't apply to a 5 wave impulsive structure, regardless of degree? Who determines which 5 wave impulsive structures it applies to?
DeleteDid Neely describe it in detail in his book - with regards to subwaves? Did he list possible exceptions? I simply do not wish to make things up.
DeleteTJ
Every wave is subwave. It's inferred. The 02 TL applied at every degree eliminates impulses and Elliot referenced that we need to count them according to his rules. I think this rule/guideline has done more harm than help and I've been paying close attention for along time. Just my opinion. I have seen you do a nice job recognizing it's nuances in x1 wave I commend you for your findings
DeleteIs not a subwave itself a larger degree to its subwaves? So what exact subwaves was Neely referring to? At what degree(s). Does it apply on weekly charts, daily charts, hourly charts? EW needs less subjectivity, not more.
DeleteAs with marc, just my opinion.
Gentlemen: FOOD for THOUGHT - is this arguement what distinguishes an "A" wave from a "1" wave? I mean, after all, let's posit for a moment that a diagonal 5th wave will finish an impulse upward. It doesn't have to, but it is a 'reasonable' assumption. Then, looking at the diagram below,
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ftT8HWY5/
If this up wave is retraced 50%, then a 'C' wave up at 1.272, not out of the question for a 'C' wave, would put price 'over-the-top', and that could be wave (1) of a diagonal.
Please try to keep in mind, that 'nowhere' I know of is there a clear definition of how to differentiate an 'A' wave from a '1' other then 'length'. (i.e. Presumably an A wave does not drop below the prior low; wave 0 in an up trend). Keep in mind that both or either could be impulses or diagonals. But 'nowhere' are the internal characteristics of an 'A' wave defined, except in the case where the A wave is a diagonal itself.
How can two impulses, 'A' & '1' have two different names but be 'exactly' the same thing? Isn't there 'something' that must distinguish them? Momentum, retrace expected, etc.?
I don't know fully yet. This is food for thought!
TJ
About Neely's guidelines and rules, I want to comment:
Delete-He is not in favor of intraday analysis.
-In futures that trade 24 hours, the shortest timeframe he uses is 1/5 of a day, which is 288 minutes.
In this case, we can doubt that the guidelines he establishes are valid for 5 or 15 minute timeframes.
quite possible that A wave has more problems with trendline than 1. this would help with predictions if it were the case - maybe help on some 4th wave conundrums
DeleteSPXcfd - daily, observations (candles)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/he6lxc7e7n0aj0m/SPXnegHD.PNG/file
ES - Another truncation?
ReplyDeleteSPY - morning trap (update from yesterday's late post)
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xqj2n
SPY, now up past 50% retrace; could go further.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lEYcRqRk/
TJ
SPY 5-min: watching to see if tentative channel holds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BHlV8lkO/
TJ
SPY 5-min: tentative channel holding; now below morning low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/goJua09J/
TJ
SPXcfd - where's the top?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/mq17xrfcpykpwqj/Wheresthetop.PNG/file
SPY - Follow up sell
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xqmd2
SPY 5-min; follow up - channel boundary broken looking for 'possible' diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DRTuZuij/
TJ
The regular triangle on Soybeans busted, may be barrier triangle.
ReplyDeleteGW, I would take a PnF update on this matter:).
Beans - update, has triggered a new DTBO (double top breakout). Still possible to see a bull trap, but price would have to reverse from here, and fall far enough to trigger a DBBO (dropping below the prior row of "O"s).
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/24d050desy0e8t6/Beansupdate.PNG/file
ES/SPY 5-min; both have the lower low - a diagonal is acceptable to the length of the current wave ((3)).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CozjqEzS/
TJ