Here is the SPY 30-minute chart. We are still monitoring the up wave. Cash did not maintain the measurements of a true diagonal, therefore, the best count at this time is that we are still in the impulse (v)th wave, with iii of (v) today, as below.
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| SPY Cash - 30 min - Impulse |
The best alternate labels are also shown on the chart in red. Interestingly, the lack of a diagonal wave may signal that IFF five-clear-waves can be counted upward, then another five-wave-sequence, up, might follow it after a correction. And, yes, there could be a "turn-around-Tuesday ", i.e. lower.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Joe, the channel long term on spc is around 5400. C=2.618B and b= 2.618 A gets us to 5140 to 5373. Do you have any issues with 15 to 20 percent continuation from your count? Is your count complete whenever you count 5 up or a diagonal on smaller time frame? Does it matter if this is a b wave from your count and we are in 4th wave for years versus some other count that has us complete a longer term impulse? These are long time periods in my opinion your c wave to make a 4th wave long term and someone elses A wave (I presume of ii) will both destroy wealth. Does it matter if I put a bunch of 5s at the top of the count or your b of 4? How many decades will it take to confirm which is better for rules and guidelines?
ReplyDelete1. I don't think that is necessarily a problem, but if it is a 'b' wave, then they have a tendency to truncate. If it doesn't truncate it will raise an eyebrow for the (5) = (1) within ((C)).
Delete2. All waves are subject to the confirmation process: there must be a speedy wave that breaks the (2)-(4) trend line in less time than (5) takes to form. Then, there must be a retrace that does not go over the high, and a lower low.
3. It could take years. IFF a cycle 'c' wave lower starts, it could be another grinding diagonal depending on what the FED does or does not do.
4. Yes, it matters if you put a bunch of 5's on something. This is really a very cavalier and irritating question. I expect better from you. I have tried to be ultra-careful in the video about explaining the upward zigzag. Therefore, downward movement extent and any overlaps will be short term markers - as with any impulse wave count. If a downward wave after ((C)) does not have the right length or it does not overlap, we will know relatively quickly.
TJ
Didn't mean to be cavalier. I'm not sure we can tell the true count in terms of your 4 down in terms of c, and let's say what would eventually be the 2nd wave of a move which began in 1933 and ends at your c of B of 4. I understand we can rule them both out once we start counting them down. A C-wave down and an A wave down should have similar characteristics in don't think we can immediately tell the difference.
Deletemarc .. is this last point a timely concern while prices are going up? It would help you to start thinking like the Neely iteration of confirmation and post pattern behavior. IF the FED raises rates a few steps, then they get their mojo back, and there is no telling how they will act.
Deletehttps://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/2021/07/Fed-Balance-Sheet-vs-SP500.php
TJ
Spx
ReplyDelete10-2 YC - current (gettin' close)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/sqfxo0kg84qb9a0/10-2yc.PNG/file
yet the 10YR3MO does not imply an upcoming recession and it too has a solid predictive track record
DeleteIndeed. Which of these is not like the others? :o)
DeleteBeans - Reg. div. (hidden) below prior price high -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7bug79o7oqwwvhi/Beansrdh.PNG/file
A spread triple btm breakout has been triggered.
DeleteWTI - two sells
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xs39x
Naz Comp - hint of underlying weakness - (new highs-new lows)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/4uvu51n0fkulz4f/Weakening.PNG/file
Good morning EW experts.
ReplyDeleteES 4-hr; because of yesterday's downward overlap, a diagonal of this type is 'possible', not certain. It would invalidate after 4,612 and cause consideration of
a (iii) in this wave, or even the start of a possible ((c)) wave higher.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4MpDIEWC/
Due to the lack of 62% retraces, IFF it turns out to be a diagonal it may be Leading rather than 'ending'.
TJ
We are at 4614 now, higher BB
DeleteCorrect. Looking at (iii) options, and (v) options.
DeleteTJ
SPY 30-min: this is the only (v) i see, but it is not a good assumption until we start making lower highs and lower lows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ePuo9FrY/
TJ
..and it is very close to (v) = (i).
DeleteTJ
SPX - stocks above the 20 dma at 91. Getting frothy. Came close to 1.618 extension off low.
ReplyDelete10-2 YC - reached .001 today, 1/10th of a basis pt. (virtual equality).
ReplyDeletePer another source, it did invert today. Of course, stocks tend to do well afterwards for a period of time. So, just something to note.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ