In previous posts, we were expecting to get a 'b' wave. Yesterday and today, we appear to have gotten one if the form of a Flat in cash, or a compound flat in futures.
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| SPX Cash - Daily Close - Potential Diagonal |
While the up wave may not be finished yet, the 'b' wave keeps the diagonal count alive. In this count, waves 'b' and 5 would invalidate beyond the high of wave 4 (using OHLC bars).
Keep in mind that if wave 5 should form properly, it must be shorter than wave 3 using OHLC bars. If it gets longer then wave 3 then the expanding diagonal count from the ES 8-hr futures (shown yesterday) may better apply.
If the 'b' wave up is to finish, tomorrow would be the best day for that.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
JNK (dly) (In the words of Staind), It's been awhile ..
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ksyw253oye7p341/JNKhighpole.PNG/file
$BPSPX - current
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SPY - Diagonals' sweet spot -
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It's crazy to me that there's a 115+ point window that would allow both of them to be viable. Right?
Delete👍 add one more target. A measured move from ATH = 4022 SPX
DeleteTJ,
ReplyDeleteWould this triangle be valid for the wave 4?
https://www.tradingview.com/i/wBNBkE5o/
..unless 'e' overlaps 3, then no it is not; as this is a 'rule' for a 'running triangle'. From what you have drawn it looks like it doesn't.
DeleteTJ
..see below @9:53 am.
DeleteTJ
ES - early look (breakdown)
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xmf8y
IF the up wave is done, this is one of the few legal counts I can find in cash.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ECWgXQw1/
It would be the extended first wave scenario where wave 4 'does not' overlap wave 1 although it does encroach on wave 2. Not desired but still doesn't break a 'rule'.
TJ
Have now triggered a DTBO, leaving a bear trap low (of some degree).
ReplyDeleteNow triggered DBBO. Back to back bear/bull traps (lower low, higher high). Broadening. IF price continues lower, it has the [appearance] of an exp flat pullback.
DeleteSPY 2-min: five-down and five-up. No decision yet. Need to take out the low again.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HmFu1dcj/
TJ
On 30m SPY, do you see a poss exp flat after initial gap down move?
DeleteThanks
..yes, possible.
DeleteTJ
BTC - quick update [if interested]
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ES - update
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Also has a diamond look to it (fwiw)
DeleteES 1-Hr: file this in under the category of "I hate 'b' waves". What if we back off a bit to the hourly chart. Are we getting a larger 'pre-FED' triangle?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/w5OpcZDp/
TJ
I just suggest this because of the weird-looking nature of the waves. 'Technically' this can still be wave iv in the futures. I mean it doesn't break the 'rules', but the time signature is awful. Only way to know is to go over the top.
DeleteTJ
Keep in mind it is now not possible to count wave iv in cash, and about the only way I could see for cash to make new highs is as a diagonal, probably contracting.
DeleteTJ
SPY 15m - gap fill and go?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/o7j3qmj0qmqde85/SPYgapnfill.PNG/file
ES - updated look
Deletehttps://invst.ly/xmmgy
Only 3 box reversal and now new DTBO. (at this point, this sets up a [poss.] bull trap should price reverse back down with a dash of follow through). Not a forecast, just an observation.
DeleteRBOB impulse in the down direction with 1.618 extension for 3.
ReplyDeleteCfd (5m candles) - current. If this follows through as anticipated, may well see
ReplyDeletebull trap on the ES PnF.
https://www.mediafire.com/view/9kvdo76ziwld0kw/Turn5m.PNG/file
Now have our bull trap on PnF. 👍
Delete100% low pole, has exceeded Wednesday peak.
DeleteMy updated LD chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/i/7eDbjc9A/
e waves of triangles should get back into the wave they are correcting.
DeleteYep your right. I looked at TJ's chart at 2:47 and didn't catch that it doesn't work in the cash. In too big of a hurry. Which after the overnight rally theres obviously something else going on. Have to see if it respects the down trendline otherwise we could see a bigger rally.
DeleteES - morning look
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We were alerted -
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/mjs0h1eri3c1yho/rallywarning.PNG/file
QQQ & JNK look weak.
ReplyDeleteSeems like no man's land till new low or upper TL break.
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend all.
Did you notice that todays opening got the wave e overlap in the cash.
Delete4th wave in making on NQ 5mins.
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http://tos.mx/jJ9BPA9
DeleteAround 160 candles on NQ 2 mins chart.
Deletehttp://tos.mx/TRIa8MJ
Noticed a triangle wave 4 in the Russell.
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You can see the same triangle in SPX just not as pronounced as the Russell.
DeleteGood morning all.. SPY 5-min cash. There appears to be 'five-up' and possibly three-down to 62%. If it holds an ending diagonal may be in progress for the c wave of the 'b' wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MIYCpuqd/
Watch the upper parallel carefully. Over it is positive; within the parallel still negative.
TJ
IFF, alternatively, we go below the low, then the ES may have had that ugly wave iv, and last night's higher high was wave v, and today's five-up in SPY might be a 'truncation'.
DeleteTJ
ES - current, constant buys/sells suggesting still in consolidation (chop)
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Revised my Wave B triangle on SPX. Might be getting ahead of myself but it's a possibility so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/i/wYdLge4y/
yep .. possible on cash; not on futures.
DeleteTJ
SPY 5-min: out of channel and back-testing.
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TJ
TJ - What would be your minimum retrace of the "d" leg of a contracting triangle to be considered a valid completed "e" leg?
ReplyDeleteWhen time permits.
Thanks!
..as always.. Neely says "to be considered of the same degree waves need to retrace about 30% of their prior wave", but in a 'running triangle' must also correct the 5, 3, A, or W wave by overlapping it.
DeleteTJ
Forgot that, thanks!
DeleteES - a follow up DBBO, but not out of the woods yet.
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SPY 5-min; with the lower low, it seems that someone is determined to chop this count to heck. However, if one looks closely, there are now 'five-wave' legs lower.
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TJ
ES/SPY took out yesterday's low.
DeleteTJ
SPY - current
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SPY 5-min: based on measurement a contracting diagonal in cash is ruled out. And an impulse or expanding diagonal ruled in. Difficult to tell at this stage.
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TJ
The opening got the e wave to overlap the A wave to complete the triangle.
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A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ