The ES futures have now broken all of the daily up (green) fractals on the daily chart below, save for two - the left-most one, marked with the green triangle, and the all-time-high.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Still Embedded |
Price, too, is nearing the 78.6% retrace level, above which truncation becomes more plausible. Although we proposed a way today that we could count a completed wave up, we said that it is likely a very poor assumption to suggest that down movement is underway without lower lows. The daily swing line is up until it isn't, and the daily bias closed positive.
With today's price movement it is again possible that the upper daily Bollinger Band will move out again, and that seems to be the game being played by the Smart Money until it isn't.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ES (dly) - To ponder -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/595c289df0le3dr/BX2.PNG/file
Add'l observation - if we draw a TL from the 1/24 low to the 2/14 low, and extend it upwards ......
DeleteAs suggested above -
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/qhd8m5f1siczokx/extra.PNG/file
Could you explain this comment:
ReplyDelete"Price, too, is nearing the 78.6% retrace level, above which truncation becomes more plausible."
Are you suggesting that rather than this being the "a" wave of an upward diagonal for (5) that it is possible this wave could be ALL of (5)?
Thanks!
-Steven
It is only in the 'set' of possibilities. b waves 'often' truncate. We are forced to 'rule in or rule out' the possibilities while counting with the trend given by the daily bias.
DeleteTJ
MJ - just one more toke (where toke = X) :o)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/tlpb0odm8lfv7le/MJupdate.PNG/file
https://schrts.co/nBDnzgaA
ReplyDeleteCPCE - getting stretched
On a wkly basis, this is the lowest ROC reading since the early rally from the late 2018 lows (late Feb '19).
DeleteToday is a fib turn date from the low on SPX
DeleteWith friday being 4/1 would you be thinking v of iii to complete on spx ?
ReplyDeleteI'm certainly thinking it has a good probability to be an up day. But we have today and tomorrow yet.
DeleteTJ
WTI - currently
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xssi8
GW there's quite a lot of daily hidden bearish divergence from the sp high to yesterday's high. Any insights on that? Thank you
ReplyDeleteSorry, I'm not following. Have a chart with it pointed out? Thanks.
DeleteAh, I think I know what you mean now. Here's a look at some way back hidden divergences (mthly), and how they differ from our current ones on the daily. I hope this addresses your question. :o)
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/8fmhfi2hga158xt/Hidden_divergence_examples.PNG/file
IWM (dly) testing (apparent) resistance
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/lrvr0virku8m53q/iwmpnf.PNG/file
Yield Curve facts - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/3i34l8zwqpfsve2/Yield_Curve_facts.PNG/file
CNX - A "4 bagger" and still goin'
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/rdeh5um9p8kcajr/CNX.PNG/file
SPY (dly) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/t9xarkgx1w294pa/SPYdly2X3.PNG/file
ES (2hr) - 1st sell signal
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xt1er
Of note: The initial vertical target (4630) is our high to date.
DeleteJoe, why no mention of completed diagonal down from late tuesday to late wednesday? And another one from todays high to low? and getting confirmation on first and possibly new low today confirmation on the second. Am i counting wrong?
ReplyDeleteWas on a road brief rip; back now. Agree w the first diagonal lower. Yesterday and today 'may be' end of month/quarter window dressing. Let's see what happens on 1-Apr: could be the usual inflows. If so, would be pretty expected.
DeleteTJ
TJ
hope you had good trip, tomorrow will give us good info for the weekend review.
DeleteRBOB - current look
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xt5tp
So would a break below the October 21 high suggest a weak market? I'd assume we'd get some summer driving demand.
DeleteES - 2nd DBBO triggered.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xt5w3
Have now added a new "O" to the downside.
DeleteA peek at Beans -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/h793jk9zngup9go/Beansupdate%25282%2529.PNG/file
Dxy bull flag could get it to 103+ area and with today's continued reversal I think that's possible. First off the month flows tomorrow - into stocks or bonds?
ReplyDeleteES - a couple of targets
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xt84b
ES - (dly) With price above 50ma and Moxie below 0, suggests a retest of 50ma.
DeleteBeans have triggered a bearish catapult.
ReplyDeleteThanks I'm not at my main computer but I'm thinking of a larger triangle. I will try and draw it out this weekend.
DeletePut/Call - interesting perspective from McClellan Fin. Pub -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/put_call_ratio_range_shift/
OXY (dly) Turn in progress?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/huhhuve7d6dtect/OXY.PNG/file