If the 14 March low is the truncation low (see *, below), as we were one of the first websites to suggest, then this is what the up count looks like, so far.
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| SPY - 1 Hr - Recent Count |
This count is the (v) = (i) count, and it looks like we are making an (a) wave down. This count does not consider the March 9th up wave as part of the count. If that up wave were considered as part of the count than the larger up wave might be considered a third wave, but it is significantly out of range of a 2.618 upward extension which tends to rule it out at this point in time.
The working hypothesis is that the down wave is currently part of a minuet (a) wave in five fives, or a minute (a)-3 wave in three waves. We won't know without more structure present.
The next consideration is that we don't know whether the up wave is the minute ((i)) wave of an impulse, or the minute ((a)) wave of a diagonal fifth wave.
These are all considerations that stem from the same basic question: would a wave Intermediate (5), below, up be an impulse or a diagonal? We don't know just yet.
Here is what is proposed for the Primary ((C)) wave of the cycle b wave from the prior weekend video.
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| ES Futures - Weekly Close - Primary ((C))? |
TraderJoe
CL (dly) update
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ic4wzyb2rkuxct7/CLhighpoles.PNG/file
SPY 2-min: there are five pretty clear waves off of the low. This suggests that for higher highs, then the low of the day needs to be respected.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bc7SOsLS/
TJ
RTH S&P looks like a big bearish wedge targeting slight new ATHs by late April. Watching for a visit to the .382 retrace for W4 into next week's Fed Minutes release.
ReplyDeletedidn't I just say, "not very likely"??
DeleteTJ
ES - violation(s)?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/u78v63588euhcpm/violations..PNG/file
what is this? you need to be less cryptic.
DeleteTJ
Fwiw, this would tie into McClellan's view that a lower low is suggested by his P/C bearish range.
DeleteExpanding diagonal (ignore the upward dashed TL, that was just something I thought was interesting).
DeleteNo. I don't in any way support this count. Diagonals 'almost never' have full candles outside of their trend lines.
DeleteTJ
Our rally up is the 1st pb after mov avg cross (dreaded "death" cross). While not all will ultimately follow through to the downside to take out prior low, they often provide a better opportunity than shorting at the actual cross.
DeleteIt was just a thought as to how we might see a lower low to come.
DeleteThanks.
no, if we fail it would be because of the "awful five", shown at this link. We have now 'five-up' to the ((c)) wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SsTGuFP3/
That would mean that there was a prior "awful five", down. But I don't endorse that count for the reasons stated.
TJ
SPY 2-min: the original 5-up in the SPY is correct (or red alt, either), and a 62% retrace, and a higher high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ue70vBgT/
TJ
ES (wkly) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/74zt2a88vbn51eg/ESwkly.PNG/file
We have a DOW THEORY bear market confirmation, death crosses in all the major indices, three official Hindenburg Omens on the clock, and central banks in a tightening cycle.The universal calls for new ATHs is fascinating.
ReplyDeleteDon't forget, the fact that you suggest something just about makes sure it is inaccurate. For how long, for how many times, do I have to say truncations are possible. And a cycle b wave (per the prior weekend video) could have it's ((C)) wave truncate, but it does not have to.
DeleteTJ
Truncations are the exception as I understand it. Some analysts contend no such thing exists. My larger point was simply that if the decline to recent lows is correctly deemed corrective, expectation of new ATHs is both logical and reasonable, as the bull narket would be continuing.
DeleteAll you need to keep in mind is that Elliott, Prechter & Neely think they are possible. Anyone who claims to be doing 'actual' Elliott Wave has learned all they know from them as the base.
DeleteTJ
BTC - continuing thoughts
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xtn7m
So, let's kick around the idea of a lower low to come. As we are still working on the premise of completing a flat (5 waves to "C"), how would a new lower low fit within this premise (plan B)? The "ugly 5" and ensuing abc would only seem to provide 2 waves of the 5 needed. If a lower low were to occur, rather than waiting until it occurs and then "work backwards" to make it fit, it seems we could work forward and anticipate how it might occur before it happens. I provided one idea (likely not the optimal one). I guarantee if a lower low were to occur, these other ideas will ensue!
ReplyDelete:o)
If I were to pick an ALT. it would be 5 waves down from ATH and now we are in 3 waves up off the lows with a lower low to follow. ABC. But I think we go to new highs until they invert 3m/10y.
DeleteNo! Don't forget that (5) of ((C)) of cycle b 'could' truncate, and give the 'appearance' we started a down trend earlier when we might not have yet - at least not until a truncation is confirmed.
DeleteTJ
AAPL (and RS) - An interesting juncture
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/adayw2k0h4sa64b/AAPLrs.PNG/file
NUSI - Observations [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7bdsepkzc291qnc/NUSI.PNG/file
I’ve traded NUSI since it came out, but not anymore. Terrible ETF unless all you care about is income. Managers do a bad job on the option collars.
DeleteA lot of talk is about the Dow Transports this week.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HQjrL867/
Looks pretty solidly in The Fourth Wave Conundrum. There 'is' absolutely a valid triangle now formed - if it holds. If not, it may start a downward diagonal, but those are more rare.
TJ
Thanks. Enjoy learning from your site. Curious if you might have an updated view of the Russell 2000 and how it might align/misalign with S&P, etc.? Appreciate it!
ReplyDeleteThe R2K represents 2000 of the 'weakest' companies, whereas the S&P represents 500 of the strongest. Given that the 0 - ((2)) trend line in the chart below has been broken, I am highly confident that a 'wave four triangle' occurred. This should have meant that wave ((5)) was the last in the series.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/odgc42xj/
The down movement occurred in three clear waves, and may only be the first wave of a diagonal lower. The second wave can go higher we are only making the A wave, up. This can only be considered a hypothesis at this point as a diagonal can not be called - like a triangle - until all five waves 'are in'.
TJ
Interestingly, on the shorter term the up wave from the low can be considered as a contracting diagonal (which 'may be' a leading A wave). This is because ((iii)) is shorter than ((i)), ((v)) is less than ((iii)), ((iv)) is shorter than ((ii)), and ((iv)) overlaps ((i)).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FNwo9r7B/
The time signatures of each of the waves looks decent, too.
TJ
Interesting indeed. Your ((ii)) is where the reg. div. (hidden) (divergence above a prior price low) shows on the daily (as pointed out earlier). These tend to suggest a B, X, or 2nd wave of some degree. Here, a 2nd. :o)
DeleteBasis the chart at top of post, from the "truncation" (now a possible 2nd of the contracting diagonal), there are 5 waves up. This would seem to conflict with the diagonal view of 3 waves up to the peak.
DeleteVery interesting and helpful insight. Again, I appreciate it!
Delete@GW .. no I don't think there is a conflict. IF the S&P is stronger it might make an additional higher over the R2K. They are 'both' currently in five-waves-up; both likely A or 1 waves.
DeleteTJ
https://schrts.co/kUDUxAuG
ReplyDeleteYield curve update - if they don’t massage the long end with balance sheet sales, this will flatten quickly
CL - Jesse Livermore adaptation (saw this on "Figuring Out Money" vid). I thought this was an interesting potential application of "old school". This ties in well with the current PnF vertical targeting. (maybe teaching some "new" dogs old tricks, lol).
ReplyDelete(click to sharpen)
https://www.mediafire.com/view/a7bse4i68rrnj1z/JesseRedux.PNG/file
DJI - Some monthly perspectives -
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Appreciated. Longer time frame perspective is often quite probative, and can be very useful by informing anallysis and understanding of nearer dated price action. Possible "Last Kiss Good-bye"...? Time will tell....
DeleteFSK and its RS - at an interesting juncture - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9oecqby9w9nhsuf/FSKrs.PNG/file
Good morning all. ES 2-hr. At this point, since > 38.2% retrace is now in the market, it is much more likely that we can remove the question mark by the (a) label, and are now into the (b) label. The (b) can be a 'real stinker' if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CmV25gYv/
It looks like the (a) wave occurred in five non-overlapping waves down, so one might prepare for a lower low after the (b) wave.
TJ
I have heard mbs takes months to settle. Seems like market still wants to hang out by CB's balance sheet.
ReplyDeleteIm not sure what to look for to give a hint of correlation breaking.
SPY 5-min: now likely the fifth wave of an 'a' wave of (b).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BbodLYrf/
TJ
Here's how things ended up at the close.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cBMwKtkz/
TJ
Isn't there "not allowed" overlap in that 5th wave? Are you saying it is a diagonal?
DeleteT - Ready to test this year's high?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/2z0a0w3ibx9xkl0/Tready.PNG/file
ETH - daily, 50x3. Confluent target area (PnF and fibs) [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/kawmk7084gbd4qi/ETH50X3dly.PNG/file
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ