Below is the SPY cash 15-minute chart. Today, we rationalized cash and futures (see prior post's comments) and can count five-up in each. The cash chart shows it most clearly.
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| SPY - 15 min - Five Up & Correction (or Part of It) |
After today's initial down wave, both of the up waves came within 90% of the high which qualifies for either a flat or a zigzag (most likely, the flat). After the (c) wave and the upward overlap, we drew this blue, dashed potential trend line. Such a trend line does not need to hold, but it could.
From this structure, it is possible to go up into the third wave of the move. If that occurs, then it is likely that the third wave would be shorter than the first. That is because the current retrace is shorter than 38.2%.
But there are ways the correction can extend if it wants to. We'll remind you that a flat can easily - but more rarely - become a double flat, or a flat-x-zigzag or a flat-x-triangle. However, bear in mind that only the first two can extend the price further lower as the flat-x-triangle would only be sideways from here. So, we just need to be flexible and make sure proper attention is being paid.
Meanwhile, just so it's been said, one needs to be aware that a 'measured move' if it occurs could get price over the prior all-time-high (ATH) again, as per the daily chart, below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Measured Move Projection |
In subsequent days, we will need to resolve the degree labels on the current up wave. It is very possible that they need to be reduced one degree to sub-minuette from minuet, that is from (i), (ii) to i, ii. We will evaluate that as time goes on.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Here is an excellent article: a short read with well-prepared charts.
ReplyDeleteWhy Keynesian Economics is Destined to Fail
TJ
This article does not describes who to categorize which investment is productive. 20 years back tech was a hype today it's inevitable to live without. Lot of spacs will fail but few may emerge out as revolutionary.
DeleteSecondly, when the innovation is happening, you can not let society as a whole to collapse by not giving free handouts.
There has never been a binary answer to debt problem!
Going over top not a big deal. A bunch of sectors have already done it. Those are the ones worth watching. The composite index going to top for real when we see those get impulse lower
ReplyDeleteET, I'm not sure on which way this trend less market moves but DOW is leading the way.
ReplyDeleteChart below is XLE showing money flow divergence.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iJn1Nbxe/
Netflix money flow chart. I added 50 closing ma because I'm looking for positive trends. If any of the these money flow indicators drop below 0 line is negative. However the strongest signals are divergence from below -20, which could signal a reversal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3Oye8iqS/
US10y Bonds - printed a double close key reversal (up) today. Something to watch.
ReplyDeleteSPY (15m) - Follow through?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/vyacq7syp9fybq2/SPY15rdhidden.PNG/file
Addendum: Small rally likely didn't qualify this as a key reversal bar. A better description would be outside down bar, closing below prior three closes.
DeleteUnless we get a hard/fast pullback prior to the open, the SPY outside bar looks destined to die on the vine. :o)
DeleteES (5x3) - early look, initial targets satisfied -
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xz5ve
Good morning all. Some aspects of a third wave, here. Let's see if blue dashed trend line can hold. Also, need to see if three is less than one.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Sure looks like an exhaustion gap on a 2hr frame. And blue dashed trend line broken. Probably still bullish if daily closes above daily 50ma, and if that remains defended.
DeleteES (5x3) 100% high pole
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xzas1
Trying to establish a double btm at 4445.
DeleteSPY (15m) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5v1kwudhcluzot3/SPY15gnc.PNG/file
Prior low exceeded.
DeleteSPY (15m) Another prior low overlapped.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5i4aly1kbbowad1/spy15another.PNG/file
Price 10ma has crossed below 50ma as RM suggested prior.
DeleteIf Ira Epstein was around this week he would characterize today as shaping up to be an outside day down with price being rejected at the confluence of resistance by the 18, 100, and 200 day MA's. This is pure speculation on my part, but the downward slope of the lower Bollinger Band and the flattening of an already weak stochastic reading makes me wonder if the market is setting up to imbed and ride the lower Band in what Ira calls a Gorilla Glue move, and take a run at the Feb Low.
ReplyDeleteIncluded with interest rates being off to the races today is the fact that the 5 yr treasury just momentarily popped over 3% and is inverted vs the 30 yr rate.
ReplyDeleteSPY (15m) - Something like this at work?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/p8q9d2lzsqh25yv/SPYcorr.PNG/file
Gaps tend to happen in 3rd waves most, exhaustion gaps happen after C waves or fifth waves most. So I'd be hesitant of the view you proposed with the gap being a "b" wave.
ReplyDeleteES (5x3) - follow up DBBO
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xzc1a
ES 2-Hr: here are the simple measurements. There is still nothing 'yet' out of the range of the complex correction suggested in the post (i.e. the larger flat). The up wave went directly to a 1.618 exterior retrace of the prior flat correction. This is how corrections can expand. In the downward direction a larger "c" wave is still less than 2.618 of the 'a' wave subtracted from the 'b' wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XTQEODNJ/
Further the entire correction has not yet exceeded 62% of the first up wave. While I do not suggest anything like 'fighting the trend' however you see it, I am only saying that "at this time" the measurements are still OK.
On the larger time frame it is a clear failure at the 100-day SMA, and likely will be an outside day down. Then, the day's high has to survive for two days so that the move doesn't provide a 'bear trap'. Except in the NQ, the prior down move is almost completely uncountable, as a downward impulse or diagonal, with the multiple bottoms.
There's nothing I can do about it except 'recognize' the volatility.
TJ
..the 2.618 and 62% have now been exceeded lower, increasing the downside risk. But, price has hit the daily S3 pivot, and the 78.6% retrace, as well as back-testing the four-hour downward channel.
DeleteBelow here, the upside gets much lower probability.
TJ
ES 30-min hammer candle at the S3 pivot & 78.6%; Needs confirming candle higher.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min; hammer candle negated. The intraday bias remains lower; the daily bias remains lower.
DeleteTJ
ES (5x3) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xzcm9
Fascinating how no one pays attention to the implications of three official H.O.s on the clock...storm ahead imho.
ReplyDeleteTech Generals now starting to feel the heat. AMZN looks like texbook Wykoff distribution example, while FB and now NFLX have jumped off a cliff. Tesla bulls have to be shaking their head today after that earnings beat - look at the daily candle.
Deletejust a heads up - the Dollar is fully embedded bullish on daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. If we could review the dollar EW count at some point I would be very appreciative, thanks for all you do.
ReplyDelete