If you enjoy volatility, you are getting it. So far, there is one way to count a completed wave in the downward direction. It is as a double zigzag as shown below on the ES 4-Hr chart.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Double Zigzag |
Is the wave count done to the downside? It does not have to be. A double zigzag can become a triple zigzag or a diagonal, yet (given the correct measurements). It is worth noting that price is not exactly hitting the boundaries of a parallel, and that might be a clue worth watching. Why isn't it?
At this time we can only say that trading up over the upper parallel trend channel with full candles would likely indicate more up side to prices, perhaps going over the top again.
One has to look at today's round trip in prices on the CPI report (good news, then bad news? huh?) and shake their head with wonder - unless they are an Elliott analyst and understand how the various patterns are made. It's fun, but it is also thought-provoking.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
ES - A second?
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Is that a lower low on an RSI divergence (RD?)?
DeleteTJ
So far, yes.
DeleteDXY - current (1x3) -
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WTI (1x3) - key hold (currently) -
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As of today's close, the stock market generated yet another official H.O, confirming the signal two days ago. This means an unprecedented 4 omens on the clock simultaneously. When viewed in conjunction with other recent market developments, including M.A. crosses and RSI and NYAD divergence, it would paint a very beatish picture indeed. In fact the H.O.s are suggesting the possibility of an impending third wave down of high degree.I have yet to see any E.W.count that calls for anything of the sort, plethora of bearish signals not-withstanding. I am curious to hear opinions. Hindenburg Omens do not always play out, but every market crash was accompamied by at least one official warning. Four simultaneously on the clock suggest the market is now a very dangerous place indeed.
ReplyDeleteIm thinking we are in a 5th wave now with an elevated probability of failure.
DeleteES - (5x3) Pre-open -
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4315 area would be 62% retrace from lows SPX.
DeleteSpot Gold (20x3) - converging
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Crude (1x3) - update
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ES (5x3) - won't be long
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Have broken up and out of small triangle, triggering new DTBO.
DeleteES (5x3) - breakout -
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ES 5-min: here is an example showing both a 1.618 wave, and a really good expansion of the third wave from a degree-labeling standpoint. Each of the subdivisions within ((3)) are/can be configured as waves that are smaller than ((1)). Hint: some might be running waves with overlap.
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For the impulse, we'd want to see an alternating fourth wave, and a higher fifth wave.
TJ
ES 5-min: now over the high in possible/likely alternating 'b' wave of a iv. (ALT is v).
DeleteTJ
'b' waves cane be testy
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TJ
Joe. Why do you point out the subwaves on this impulse, but on the majority of time when you use motive waves 1, 3 and 5, you don't point it out and likely there's violations. You have said even though it's fractal it doesn't apply. Is the point this is first real impulse in a while?
DeleteI don't know what violations you are referring to. I am one of the few trying to pay attention to degree concerns/violations. I pointed them out today because I was counting/trading intraday. Is that a problem?
DeleteTJ
No problem today. I'm referring to subwaves and subwaves if those subwaves with violations, I'll continue discussion when these waves get counted in future. Not trying to insult or attack just inquisitive. Thanks
DeleteES (5x3) - nice follow through so far -
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It 'looks' better as the alternate, with v = i, so I'm going with that unless something against the rules or really unusual occurs.
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TJ
..and 'out of the battle' it could have been a triangle iv for alternation, as well.
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TJ
TJ, wave iii of 3 is longer than higher degree wave 1, can remind me why that is not considered a degree violation on an impulse?
DeleteThx
Waves threes and C's have 'always' been allowed to expand to 1.618 or 2.618 (and sometimes beyond). However, when they do that, they must do so by making progressively smaller degree waves. What I showed clearly today was that the wave ((1)) subwave is 'smaller' than wave i, the larger degree wave. So, the initial degree considerations are maintained. Then as wave ((3)) continues each of the 'interior' waves of ((3)) is smaller than the length of the higher degree wave ((1)) - like if you called them (1) - (5), they are smaller than the initial ((1)). You may have to squint a bit, you may have to consider some running flat waves, but it definitely does work.
DeleteSo, as long as the expanded wave is composed of progressively smaller degree subwaves it is not a violation.
In short, there 'must be' an allowed mechanism for wave expansion. But many analysts don't get how it works, and their first subwaves are degree violations right off the get-go. They have 1,2,i,ii where i is larger than 1, or conversely where ii is larger than 2 in either time or price or both.
TJ
Agree, I think sub waves of sub waves can't be bigger than the prior wave to get the extension you are considering
DeleteSLX (2x3) - Nice structure and target confluence
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(Larger "2" box size for longer term view)
BPI for DJI -
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ES - retesting breakout
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ES 1-Hr - IFF we get a new low on the day, it might be possible to see the down wave as a double-zigzag leg (d) within an hourly triangle, as illustrated below.
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Yesterday's clear impulse up was likely wave ((3)) of .a of the (c) wave up. It's the best I see at this time, and it might give the downward correction more 'time'.
TJ
ES 1-hr: there a new low on the day.
DeleteTJ
Unless there is a major late day turn around, both the cash S&P and the Nasdaq will embed a down trend at the close today.
ReplyDeleteQqq looks an awful lot like 5 waves down from November with an ABC completion. If so we're starting the big 3. I don't see a lot of chatter about it and vix is quite tame even with today's sell off.
DeleteUsing Epstein's settings for the slow stoch., daily SPX has not yet embedded. Today would be the first day where both readings are under 20.
DeleteDaily Slow Stochastic Indicator, plotted as 14,3,3
DeleteI'm not sure which index you are referring to but I was referring to Cash for which today is day 3. For futures, my charts are indicating today was day 2.
Epstein uses an exponential setting in the slow stochastic. My daily chart of cash SPX on thinkorswim shows today as the first day with both readings under 20.
DeleteJC, Thank you for that info regarding the exponential setting. I've never heard Ira indicate that and it is not in the written recap of his method. As a matter of fact I wasn't even aware there was an exponential setting until you mentioned it, so thanks again.
DeleteES (5x3) - current
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ES 1-Hr; now into the daily S1 pivot, and 78.6% is ~4,392.
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TJ
Hi ET,
DeleteWould be great to have your opinion as per the Dow Futures: After (a) up, (b) down, is it now the (c) wave up developing to rally 78.6% retrace of the former expanding diagonal down.... Thanking you in anticipation for your insight....
Hi Le D' - I don't see anything yet different in the Dow futures than in the ES futures. Still possible to see a failed, overlapping contracting diagonal, down, followed by the non-overlapping five waves up, and now a back-test of the broken downtrend line from the highs.
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It would be key to see if the back-test succeeds or not. The 4 Hr down move from the recent high still looks overlapping and corrective - unless it goes on to form some sort of diagonal.
TJ
Very grateful for your response. However I would like to add the following elements.
DeleteOn the 30 mins chart I can see a rising wedge as an impulse. Then I'm able to count an abc downwards as perhaps a wave 2. As per the recent count wave 5 of c is now developing.
Your previous comments will be most welcome
'Possible' and I see what you are saying but be careful with that one because 'usually', 'most often' the wedge-style count results from an extended first wave. And in this case, the third wave would be longest. When the third wave is longest, 'usually', 'most-often' a parallel forms the wave boundaries, and it is too late for that because there is downward overlap already.
DeleteTJ
Noted, many thanks for your prompt response.
Deletefyi - just a reminder (as per my broker)..
ReplyDelete"The markets will be completely closed on Friday April 15th due to the Good Friday Holiday. Once the markets close at their regular hours on Thursday then the markets will not be open until Sunday night at their regular times."
TJ
fyi - there is ES 4,393, and as a famous chartist once stated, "it's either turn 'em or burn 'em". Lol.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES (hrly) close only -
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GDX (+) - Sum of the parts -
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A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ