Overnight ES futures were moderately lower. Then the very sideways consolidation wave was reminiscent of the second wave ii. On the intraday-counting-screen, prices got down to the S1 pivot support level in a wedge. We said it could be a fifth wave at that location, and placed a wave-counting-stop over ES 4,250. Prices then broke that level higher and headed 46+ points higher than that, nearing the Daily Pivot Point (P), below.
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| ES Futures - 30 min - Intraday Wave Counting Screen |
The fourth wave, iv, and the second wave, ii, are very similar in overall size in terms of points traveled. The fourth wave is messy, overlapping and hard to count but it is overall longer in time than the second wave. The fifth wave is a mere stub in this case - a lower low that just barely fits the bill.
It is a shame this wave ended where it did. On the daily chart, it is below the 78.6% retrace level of the upward wave. But on the four-hourly chart, there are only three-waves-down to today's low. So, we have to play the game of whether the upward wave will overlap or not as in the chart below.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Overlap Game |
CRB (5x3) Longer term look - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/x5ednao2m7ix5co/CRBlt.PNG/file
ES (5x3) - Potential area of interest
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ES 30-min: now down to 62% retrace. IF it fails, and I don't 'know' if it will; there might be a way to count 'five-down' from the high. It is also possible for this wave to triangle.
ReplyDeleteTJ
NQ futures have taken out yesterday's low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min futures have hit 78.6% & below daily S1 pivot; warning.
ReplyDeleteTJ
The possible gorilla glue trade I mentioned last week is in fact happening. While the Dow has never embedded, the NASDQ has been embedded since 4-14 and unless there is a substantial turn around later today the S&P will join the NASDQ by regaining it's embedded status which was lost on 4-19. With a forward looking view I am suspecting the possibility that since the Dow has been the strongest of the major indexes and has not been embedded since December, a washout that does embed it might be the logical end to the down move whenever and at whatever level that might be.
ReplyDeleteS&P stopped at the fifth bar closing out of the BB in 15 minutes chart
ReplyDeleteSPXcfd (hrly) Alert in play -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/catt4vfz5bki14d/SPXcfdalert.PNG/file
SPX - Targets I’m watching. 4099= 1.618 and from ATH a measured move = 3933
Delete90% retrace of yesterday's move up
DeleteSo far, appears to be 3 waves down from yesterday
DeleteRussell 2000 futures (RTY), also though the low.
ReplyDeleteTJ
The ES is being the stubborn one, so far, but it has made a 90% retrace which is either 'b' wave or next wave to go through the low. The ES 15-min and RSI minimum suggest a channel like this one.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/U0CtQoOf/
IFF the channel gets defeated upwards significantly then perhaps this is three-waves down of a flat, but that 'would not' provide good alternation for a second wave (ii) in the four-hour chart.
TJ
ES futures got the new low; hard to argue with 'five down' both here and from the 4-hour top. (Chart is behind).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WhAU10sd/
TJ
ES (5x3) upward targets negated -
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/x-s1w
SPY gap on the daily at 417.05 just filled.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ