Yesterday, we clearly stated that an up move that out higher could whip around again and become part of a larger flat correction, lower. We also said that the ES 4-Hr channel could be back-tested low (prior days). Both of those happened today with a higher high that hit the 100-day SMA, and then reversed fully lower to make an outside day down. So, it is hard to say that today was completely unexpected. It wasn't. The daily chart is below. I encourage the reader to plot the ES 4-hr chart again, and see exactly where price is relative to the position of the parallel that was shown.
For the moment now, the daily bias is lower, and the intraday bias is lower (ES 30-min chart, with daily Bollinger Bands & pivot points). The outside day down only creates as trap for the bears if it is exceeded higher within the next two trading days. It's a heck of a range!
So, the wave count now depends on whether the low from 17 April is exceeded lower or not. It is now at high risk of being defeated lower. If it is, it is still possible that the downward movement is still a correction of the up wave from 14 March. This down wave never made it to 62%, downward.
The problem is that the downward from 29 March is exceptionally difficult to count in the ES. I have tried several impulses and several diagonals downward: no luck because of all the truncations along the way. That leaves me with the (w)-(x)-(y) count which seems valid. But again, downward movement is dependent on taking out the prior low. One needs only to look back to 15 March and other prior corrections on the chart to find lows that are much deeper than 62% and yet new highs are made.
So, we remain flexible & patient, and we use Elliott Wave logic as it is. From a trading standpoint, it would be against the paraphrase of Ira Epstein's trading guidelines to be long below the 18-day SMA (and likely by extension below the 18-period SMA on the ES 30-min intraday timeframe).
Price has to recycle upward, first, so that bias is in favor of such actions. There were no candles at the end of the day that acted as reversal candles, yet.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
TSLA (wkly)- someone mentioned TSLA earlier today. Here's an observation -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/67xzhbolp944dr2/TSLAwkly.PNG/file
move down from 3/29 counts out as expanding diagonal which i mentioned 3 times you must thnk its invalid or dont see it. https://www.mediafire.com/view/so2pxwz8oljeuum/diag.JPG/file
ReplyDeleteI was working on that one today. Problem is I can't tell if the legs are 3's or 5's. Normally I can. These are not 'crisp' and may contain 'flat' waves where they shouldn't do to truncation. So, I don't want to invent things to see that I don't. At this point I'd only say 'it's possible', and I see you have questions about where it ended or did not end, too. I would say, if it is an expanding diagonal, there 'could be' an expanded flat to today's high. But it is 'real messy' and must prove itself with a complete new lower low.
DeleteTJ
Agree. But the legs seem less relevant lately. I know that sounds dumb. I also see similar moves off the jan high. So it's not out of possiblity we are in sweet spot of another large leg down. Thanks joe
DeleteI pointed out the April analogue to January-March decline yesterday in the comments. Could potentially be ETs "messy 5 down" from Jan highs. Then ABC correction to late March/early April highs. And now the April lower degree analogue 1-2. Seems that many reputable chartists/traders right now are eyeing the historically low sentiment and potential for inverse HS for justification of a bullish catapult from here. If yields and USD backed off, maybe! I suppose time will tell!
DeleteThe correlation coefficient between FED balance sheet and market price and direction the last 13 years asymtotically approaches a perfect 1.0. Along with corporate stock buy-backs, I think one can make a credible argument of those two (and they too, are connected!)factors being the main drivers of market price. The promise of balance sheet reduction from a feckless FED is a moot point, entirely irrelevant. What is key, in my opinion, is that they have embarked on a strategy to combat run-away inflation by "permitting" some asset price deflation. Does anyone recall the last time the FED hiked 50 basis points? They will likely have more help than they expect from dollar-denominated debt destruction. The carnage there began with the Evergrande default, and now nations, starting with Sri Lanka, are lining up to join the default chorus. Rates are headed higher Interesting times!
DeleteThe fib turn date was 15 minutes late. Not bad.I will figure out the next one since this continues to work from the lows.
ReplyDeleteThe next fib turn date is May 24. A lot can happen during that time and the turn date could be high or low.
DeleteXAU (dly) - a big clue -
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https://schrts.co/KUINbiUV
ReplyDeleteCPCE - This may slow the drop.
ES (5x3) - Measured move
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IXIC (wkly) -
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ES (5x3) Early look - constructive
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ES (5x3) Update -
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ES (5x3)&candles - like the old Canned Heat song says - Let's work together -
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ES (mthy, line) - What are the chances?
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ES (5x3) - on the lookout for a turnaround (of some degree)
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Shorts still not nearly as prevalent as in previous bear markets, I can't quite understand that considering the historical bearish sentiment everyone keeps taking about. Flush to 4k next week should fix that.
ReplyDeleteES (5x3) - H&S measured move target reached. (right shoulder was not breached).
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Retrace now .786 of move up from mid March
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A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ