On the cash SPY 2-Hr chart, at the moment, we either have a falling parallel or wedge as illustrated below.
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| SPY - 2 Hr - Parallel or Wedge |
The wave count is incomplete. It could be a portion of a double-zigzag as we noted. Or it could be the start of an as yet incomplete diagonal. There aren't enough waves to say. Regardless, we continue to count downward as best we can. At the moment, the down wave has not quite taken as much time as the up wave. So, we remain flexible and patient until we see a count that completes. Note that the 2 Hr RSI is not now on a divergence.
Today, in the comments we again showed the best alternate count for a wave that does not go over the prior 29 March high, and you can view it at this LINK.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
thank you - on spx futures it looks like the channel has already broken and was tested at 4414 after futures opened. I guess it's interpretive, but that's what it looks like to me. https://invst.ly/xwea5
ReplyDeletewelcome .. just be careful of the futures prices on that site. They are 'guestimates' based on real time. In particular, they show a lower low back on 15 March which 'never happened' in the ES. I have stopped using the site for that very reason.
DeleteTJ
I stand corrected. I was working too fast and was comparing that low to the Feb low. It had nothing to do with the supposed 'contract roll' problem mentioned by a separate pest-poster as 'both contracts' had the slight lower low. But I have legitimately run into other quote problems with that site.
DeleteTJ
..and see below at 1:47 pm for example.
DeleteTJ
HYG - 1st sell
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/i0lf8g69xa5z66o/HYG1x3.PNG/file
Margin of error - 20 pts. The ES has hit the lower daily Bollinger Band. If it reverses around here (or within -20 points) then it 'could possibly' form a contracting diagonal lower. If it goes beyond about 4,365 then a contracting diagonal is off the table measurement-wise. Just keep it in mind.
ReplyDeleteTJ
10yr yield (1x3) - Has reached 2.80, nosing above the 40yr falling TL (basis PnF).
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. The ES did indeed bounce off of the lower daily Bollinger Band, BUT, as noted yesterday the RSI lost it's divergence. So did the Elliott-Wave-Oscillator. So now that makes two problems for a diagonal, the second being the lack of 62% retraces, and an impulse count has undesired overlap. So, I was also able to find this more simple zigzag count with a triangle b-wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/a5fFW5Xv/
So, while a diagonal remains 'just barely possible' by measurement, if the measures go astray, there is this option, as well.
TJ
..and, yes, because of the 'length' of the ((B)) wave down, a double-zigzag can not be ruled out at this time, with ((B)) as the W wave of the DZZ, and the rest of the quasi-triangle as X.
DeleteTJ
fyi only .. in terms of measurement, the ES is at 4,440 after the CPI. The diagonal is good 'only' between 4444.50 and 4457.50. It is a pretty narrow target to shoot for. In the double-zigzag count, perhaps the upper parallel could be hit again if the diagonal invalidates.
DeleteTJ
ES 4457.50 has now been exceeded higher.
DeleteTJ
ES (2hr) Divergent bounce - (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ubwuougrzxgewyw/ES2hrbounce.PNG/file
ES 2-Hr, by measurement a contracting diagonal lower has been invalidated.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0oFvMX2M/
There are other corrective options for the market to go lower, but now, not until the overnight low is exceeded lower.
TJ
ES 5-min: one way to consider 'five-up' in futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4jtJeFmH/
TJ
..another option is if wave ((4)) wants to form a 'running triangle'. For that option 4432-5 needs to hold. This would give wave ((4)) more 'time' and make a better channel, but not necessary.
DeleteTJ
CPI - initial target - Chart courtesy of Bruce Fraser (StockCharts)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/uoenas1k4k6svsg/Inflation%25282%2529.PNG/file
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/uDMVTKLj/?symbol=CME_MINI%3AES1%21
ReplyDeleteA log chart TNX. With multiple tags of upper TL, I don’t see the break out yet.
Sorry, I don’t know why Trading view gives me a different chart when I copy from their site.
DeleteYou need to hit the camera icon and scroll down to "Copy Link to the Chart Image". Do not copy & paste the chart link directly.
DeleteTJ
I like the double correction idea, and that would likely mean we retest the highs after we go another leg lower? I don't think many are thinking that's going to happen, so again that's an attractive idea, thank you for the charts.
ReplyDeleteYou are welcome. Objectively, like it or not, and I do 'like' a way of getting down to 62% retrace, there are 'five up' so far this morning, and we must respect that until this morning's overnight futures low is exceeded lower. It's a big range, but that's how Elliott works.
DeleteTJ
ES 5-min: prior low exceeded lower. Triangle for ((4)) ruled out. Full correction of up wave (i.e. second wave or 'b' wave) became much more possible. Watch the intraday high.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES (5min) (5x3) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xwo9o
Updated look - TBBO triggered
Deletehttps://invst.ly/xwp56
ES 5-min; now down to 50% of up wave - a respectable retrace. There is also a break of the 0 - ((2)) trend line. Nothing says it can't go farther.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PcBMUgD3/
TJ
ES 5-min: the second wave down from the high is 'longer in time' than the first; so 'likely' the two waves are of the same degree (i.e. c = a or iii = i). But above 4,435 there is now overlap.
DeleteTJ
ES 5-min : here is an example of where Investing.com quotes are inferior.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/xwq18
There is no gap I can find in broker quotes; nor on TradingView.
TJ
ES 5-min: IFF below 4,403, then the wedge breaks down into an extension of iii with a flat in it; 'otherwise' 5-3-5-3-5 wedge lower is 'possible'.
DeleteTJ
I have errands to do today. Best to all.
DeleteTJ
IYT - Not a good look -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/28ildgzt2ut820c/IYT2x3.PNG/file
ES (5x3)- updated look
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xwqsk
Prior low exceeded.
DeleteA/D line (SPX) - something positive among the negativity?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/q54j4rgqdqb0nbj/AD.PNG/file
👍
DeleteSmall divergence on RSI 5 but the possible bearish engulfing isn't a good sign.
ReplyDeleteCrude may stay inside Alligator bands as the bollinger bands contract. I'd assume commodities is past it's peak.
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ