Yesterday, I provided this SPY hourly chart, and noted the gap that closed at the the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level of the up wave from 15 March 22.
We also noted that the bottom formed on an RSI divergence. Meanwhile, the NQ 100 futures this morning made a lower low at the point marked (c) on the chart above. Then, cash and futures made a wave that can be counted as five-waves-up from the morning low (it could also be counted as three waves up, and a flat fourth wave, to make a higher high if it doesn't overlap downward first.)
If it is a true double-bottom, which it appears it is at the moment, then the implication is that there is some strength in the ES futures. So, once again, we need to see tomorrow if this bottom holds. If it does, it is possible to get another wave up. If the 29 Mar wave is ((i)) or ((a)), then the down wave might be ((ii)) or ((b)). Yet, we have no way of knowing - if the entire up wave is to be a fifth wave - whether it will impulse, diagonal or if it will truncate.
There is also a possibility for this correction to extend as a double zigzag if the current low is defeated, but that seems to be lower priority for today or else what was the purpose of the double-bottom?
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Stages - current
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ARKK - Old school alive and well -
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Addendum: As Jesse's "13" was lower than "11", where I have "15" could {should?] be "13", then "14" at next low. Either way, ARKK has been a nice fit for Jesse's diagram.
DeleteRBOB - update
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SPX,HYG (5min) - idea courtesy of "Figuring Out Money" -
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SPX daily appears to have a inverse H & S pattern or cup & handle set up.
DeleteBTC - checking in -
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SPY 5-min: after holding a 62% retrace, SPY has made near-equal highs again. There is a small triangle which suggests to see whether the ((E)) wave of the triangle breaks or not.
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TJ
Both SPY and ES have broken the triangle ((E)) wave, lower. This suggests the prior up wave is over for now, and a further correction, or more, lower is possible.
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TJ
looks like 62 percent is 452 area on spy, which I would like to see hit (also 100ma and 10ma near 4530-4540 on ES) Have a great weekend and thank you for all the updates!
DeleteUVXY - key test
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VIX - pullback from buy signal, higher lows -
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SPY 5-min: keep an eye on this trend line to see if it can form 0 - ii, meaning it would not be breached. Otherwise, ii is likely still in progress.
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TJ
Trend line broke lower; not ii!
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TJ
SPY 5-min: with the trend line break, there is now a 'pretty clear' non-overlapping five-waves-down, and reasonable people must ask why.
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The bull-case 'as-of-this-time' is that there is a "running second wave" at the low of the five-waves-down. The case lower is that the correction extends and makes a fully flat wave.
TJ
..for the "running flat" wave case, a lower low than the most recent low should not occur, and there should be buying into the close. The "running flat wave" would be negated by a lower low. A higher high than Thursday's high would activate the case for an 'up' wave.
DeleteTJ
SPY 5-min - has the lower low. Only 'possible' running flat is now a w-x-y complex. But, a trip back to the lows just became more likely.
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TJ
which lows?
DeleteI will mention again that we had a valid diagonal down from 3/29 to 4/6, which doesnt fit in with your count. the bearish alternative puts us in a iii/C that could take us down 4-6%
SPY (5) - e.o.d.
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A new post is started for the next day.
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