The ES futures broke the upward parallel we pointed out yesterday and headed lower back to the 100-day Moving Average, as below, (see the green-dotted line).
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| ES Futures - Daily - Back to 100 DMA |
In the process, the daily slow stochastic seemed to have lost its embedded status. If this continues to be the case, then a return visit to the 18-day SMA or lower seems possible.
So far, during the day, we could only count three waves down on the cash 15-minute SPY. So, we need to monitor the overnight and open tomorrow to see if the fourth wave of an impulse forms properly or if an expanded diagonal wave forms (although that needs a 'longer' wave iii than i, yet, which it does not have.) Remember, at the moment we are looking for an (a), (b), (c) down. Here is the LINK to the intraday chart.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
10 Yr (yield) - early indication
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/6e747meawrfgqv5/10yr.PNG/file
Addendum - :o)
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/k6wq9rpbkjdzigm/10yr_regdivhidden.PNG/file
ES (hrly) - early look
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xurim
Poss H&S on 2hr (upward sloping neckline). Measures to 4365ish area (MM)
DeleteThx for all the work.
DeleteES daily - back to the 18-day SMA, which 'typically' offers some support.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0fmWnhJU/
TJ
ES - (2hr) - update
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xuvp8
Of note - the rate of decline (angle) is notably steeper in our current move down vs prior.
DeleteNice chart GW. Price returned to perfectly tag underside of broken neck-line. Classic!
DeleteDJT (200x3) - has triggered DBBO. (poss support at 14000-200)
ReplyDelete(CNBC) - Fed officials plan to shrink the balance sheet by $95 billion a month, meeting minutes indicate.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/fed-minutes-march-2022-meetings-.html
TJ
ES/SPY new low of day (LOD).
DeleteTJ
Just fyi - SPY price is back to the 38.2% retrace, and has filled a gap on the left. Nothing to say yet that is can't go lower (to 50 - 62% or more).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5BQ4on1B/
TJ
CL (1x3) TBBO. Prior low just below, will want to monitor closely.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/kudo437b54x3msi/CL_1x3.PNG/file
Spy 15-min: we should note that the lower low did occur on an RSI divergence.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zWt9TP3y/
Further, there is now :5, up. This suggests monitoring the low to see if it is exceeded lower or not.
TJ
DJT- 200x3 - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/43c1d463trjh09m/DJT_200x3.PNG/file
SPY 15-min: nothing new at the end of the day. Still need to monitor tomorrow to see if the low holds.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Looks like to fairly equal waves down as of now.
ReplyDeleteSo far...
DeleteTJ
BPIs - update (click to sharpen)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/x3cqfe8x6bq3939/BPIs%25282%2529.PNG/file
ES - (2hr) early look -
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xv593
typo - Red. div. s/b Reg. div. :o)
DeleteES - equaled yesterday's low
DeleteAccum-Distrib examples vs our current (SPX & Naz) - Wyckoff [if interested]
ReplyDelete(click to sharpen)
https://www.mediafire.com/view/rl4c3hkc7ufryd0/Accum-Distrib.PNG/file
Interesting fractals, thanks for sharing. I was digging further to see if there is a way to identify ahead of time what's happening using technical analysis. One way is obviously EW counts, if the primary count is a corrective wave, then it's likely to be accumulation. There are probably other indicators that more objective measure distribution or accumulation which we can add to the charts. However, from a Bollinger Band POV, I noticed that all of the examples touched the top of the weekly 18 period band either at your 5th point (marked in red) or shortly after it. From there, I think it depends on whether the weekly 18 day moving average 'line in the sand' as TJ calls it is held or not. See first link for your charts reproduced.
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/bjblc0amb0yuldu
The second link show the current conditions, it's interesting that the top of the weekly BB is still pretty high up on all major indices, and it should soon start folding down. If your fractals apply, then we have more whipsaw action still until the top of the band is tagged, after which we should monitor how it behaves around the line in the sand.
https://www.mediafire.com/view/ldxvn6iu8xq627t
ES - (2hr) update -
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xva9r
👍 the next fib turn date is 4-20. The last TD was one day off.
DeleteThere was a fib cluster several days wide. The Bradley and Phi Mate turns all came within 24 hours of scheduled turn.
Deletebig tech NQ couldn't close over 18ma. Ira I'm sure will note it :)
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ