The ES futures (2 hr) neared the 62% retracement level, as per the chart below. We said, we were looking for the (b) wave up of a correction. There is one way to consider it as complete; there is a second way in which only the 'a' wave of the (b) wave is formed yet.
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| ES Futures - 2 Hr - Nearing 62% |
We are currently taking this latter more conservative view. It is possible that the (b) wave will travel within the upward parallel shown. It 'could' reach the 78.6% retrace, but it does not have to. A lot depends on whether one is tracking futures or cash at the moment. Cash would only appear to have a :5 up. And the futures 'could' be counted in a more complex w-x-y, but they could also extend to make a triple zigzag if they wish.
So, we will monitor the correction and the parallel carefully and suggest that full bars below the new upward parallel might suggest that the (c) wave lower could be in progress.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
XHB (wkly) - Ouch!
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Good morning, all. ES (2 Hr) futures are back down to the parallel suggested.
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Again, there is one way the wave could have ended in the overnight. There is another way (with a flat wave down to this point) there is still a way it could extend longer in time/price). So, the level of the retrace attained on any up wave is critical.
TJ
ES 30-min: outside candle (currently lower).
DeleteTJ
SPY 15-min: sitting on its parallel. It's a game now of whether the high or low holds.
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TJ
DIA - 30min (triple resistance)
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SPY 15-min: second close below channel.
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TJ
Backing off to the ES-daily for a moment, price is approaching the 100-DMA from above. Things 'might' get bumpy around the MA. Further, the daily slow stochastic is threatening to lose its embedded status.
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Sometimes the Smart Money tries to prevent that.
TJ
..yup, there is now upward overlap on the first wave down. So, a,b,c down at this point.
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TJ
SPY 15-min: the lower lows might make a diagonal. Not sure yet, but certainly possible.
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TJ
SPY 15-min: next down leg is too long to allow a shorter upward overlap. The down wave is either impulsing or will go on to form an 'expanding' instead of contracting diagonal.
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SPY 15-min - wave iii remained shorter than i into the close; therefore it looks like the ole extended first wave sceanrio.
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TJ
The internal waves on most of your counts look sketchy id like to see your x1 wave counted, not a diagonal and not an impulse as far as i can tell. your (b) wave looks like impulse and the current wave does not at this time.
Deleteif we drop another 75bps - then you have downward expanding diagonal from 3/29
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