Yesterday, we gave some options for yesterday's spirited reversal upward. We said an overlap did not have to happen (but it could), a triangle could form, or the wave could just fail. It did fail, and today created an outside range day down (ORDD). In doing so, we can count most or all of five-waves-down. Below is the ES daily chart.
Wave (iii) is a longer wave than wave (i) and wave (v) occurred today in part or in whole. Since wave (iii) is longer than wave (i), then wave (v) is not limited in length. It is likely the prior daily low in February will be exceeded lower.
Today, one daily gap on the SPY near the lows was filled. A second wave not. Note that the 18-day SMA is still pointed lower, and the lower Bollinger Band is bending lower.
So far, the best I can tell, all degree requirements of the waves have been met in good form.
On a side note, I have been monitoring the Dollar Index (DX) futures and the Eur/USD futures looking for signs of a reversal bar, as most-or-all of five-up can be counted in the DX. So far, there is no sign of it, so stay tuned.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Via thinkorswim, I show Daily ES-mini to have embedded on the slow stochastic today.
ReplyDeleteHello JC,
DeleteI was hoping you might help me out regarding the stochastic reading. I am using thinkorswim and have tried every adjustment I can think of including the exponential setting, but I can not get a reading to match the ones Ira Epstein is showing. My readings along with someone else who posted yesterday show it embedded yesterday. Do you have any ideas or suggestions. I am using 14-3-3 with an exponential setting and using a linear chart not exponential. I tried exponential and it made no difference.
ET Thanks for the note on the buck. I was looking at my old chart this weekend.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/i1zxtpak7awa4f8/DXY_monthly_4-2022.png/file#
ES (5x3) Retest of 3/15 low and bounce
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/x-tt3
TSLA - wkly Update to prior post - Ouch!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ovh87v52ls5385q/Update.PNG/file
We may have completed 3 down from ath with failure, or loading up current big 3rd wave down entering (iii)/iii/3. Expect big big range rest of week.
ReplyDeleteES (4hr) MM
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/hdjb70z8ph0xdfi/ESmm%25282%2529.PNG/file
Major indexes (PnF status) - [if interested] Stockcharts
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/6sghv2he9feyez2/Majors.PNG/file
ES (5x3) - early look
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/x--v3
SPY 15-min opening gap closed. Maybe a daily gap too, will have to check.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WZEPw9V9/
Trend lines are very tentative. I'll be looking for more fractals.
TJ
SPY 15-min: See new chart note.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uNaCvuRW/
TJ
ES (5x3) - Current
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/y05m-
Chart above had not properly updated - corrected
Deletehttps://invst.ly/y061j
SPY-15-min: here's a chart update with new fractals. The tentative trend lines no longer apply at this time..
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oqL6nb1b/
TJ
More fractals, and tentative trend lines in slow trading. Noticed that c = a gets one to 78% at the gap, if the current down (red) fractal holds.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Y8gasq3s/
TJ
first down, (red) fractal back has broken lower.
DeleteTJ
SPY now nearing 62%; trend lines still tentative, nothing holding, yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vIT74lts/
TJ
Does have the "look" of an inverted H&S (fwiw)
DeleteHello JC,
ReplyDeleteI was hoping you might help me out regarding the stochastic reading. I am using thinkorswim and have tried every adjustment I can think of including the exponential setting, but I can not get a reading to match the ones Ira Epstein is showing. My readings along with someone else who posted yesterday show it embedded yesterday. Do you have any ideas or suggestions. I am using 14-3-3 with an exponential setting and using a linear chart not exponential. I tried exponential and it made no difference.
Tom, I've noticed when Epstein does his daily free videos that his slow stoch. numbers are slightly different as well. I am a subscriber of his, and I'm going to write an e-mail to inquire as to the difference. I asked early on about the setting on the slow stoch. and I was informed he used an exponential setting and that was it. He may have tweaked it with something else as well since, so I will find out.
DeleteThanks, JC
DeleteSPY (3min) A couple of stealth reg div (hidden)s -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/mk18rpmf5o0il0p/Stealthhiddens.PNG/file
Fwiw, I'm guessing the 1st was a 2nd wave, with 2nd being either b/ii (of some degree).
DeleteSPY 15-min - another up (green) fractal has been logged, but price is still below the EMA-34,, and price action is very flaky at the moment. Nothing is holding yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/K8jmjg3k/
If below the low of the day, consider the contracting diagonal again.
TJ
nothing determinative as of the cash close.
DeleteTJ
ES (5x3) Basing (currently) - waiting for possible horiz count
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/y08lj
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ