We spent most of the day doing some short-term wave counts which are in the comments section for the prior post. Today, near the end of the day we wanted to highlight the difference between two markets and how they acted towards the close. Below are the daily charts of the NQ versus the ES futures.
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| NQ versus ES Futures - Daily |
Notice that the NQ futures made a full-on outside-day-down (ODD), while the ES futures only made a higher high day (HHD).
The ES futures, in particular, appear to be having "the battle at the 18-day SMA". There seems to be something different going on with them: two minutes before the cash close, they were down approximately -18 points. Then, nearly on the cash close they were only down -8. It is something to keep in mind as it turned the volume spike in the SPY at the end of the day from red to green on the intraday chart (5 min).
You will also note from above that the NQ futures have no overlap on their last two most recent bars with the down bar on 1 Apr. Clearly, on the other hand, the ES futures last two days do indeed overlap with the down bar on 1 Apr.
These are things one should keep in mind when counting waves. The stocks included in each index are different in both their number and their composition. At times, the different indexes act very differently. Not convinced? You might like to do a side-by-side on the Russell 2000 futures.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
joe the difference is that S&P has defensive sectors thus more of a rotation on declines as of late whereas NDX is net outflows nothing to rotate into. Russel 2000 is complete different factors primarily based on size. You are exactly right.
ReplyDeleteYou are also..
DeleteTJ
While I would agree rotation is a factor I would tend to think another factor you mentioned has a greater influence, that being composition. We've been hearing for weeks ad nauseam on CNBC etc. the tech stocks are the most interest sensitive. As interest sensitive stocks are getting the worst of things we must keep in mind the Nasdaq has the most tech stocks, the S&P 500 is next and the Dow has the least. Many days when I look at the board the Dow is the strongest, the Nadsaq is the weakest and the S$P is in the middle. As for the Russell 2000, well they're just at the bottom of the quality scale and are going to get hurt in any down turn. Another point I found interesting is that one of the CNBC commentators made the point that due to market cap weighting, a handful of the FANG type stocks are holding the indexes up and the index values are masking the damage done to the rest of the stocks in the indexes.
ReplyDeleteMidterm years - Courtesy of LPL Research
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/78i91zo9gjfe7d1/Midyears.PNG/file
Another good reference on this topic: suggests April 'might' have some gas in the tank, yet, but nearing a dicey time of the year (May - Jul).
DeleteStock Seasonality Map
TJ
👍 thanks. It fits in with a fib turn date on 4-20. We shall see
DeleteSPX (20x3) - status
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/aacwro6sfz4z1se/SPX20x3.PNG/file
Tbills, Fed funds - EWI's contention
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Current comparison -
https://www.mediafire.com/view/nncn0vdhnoslprt/tbillsfedfunds.PNG/file
Its like arguments around my home with the wife. Meeting in the middle sure does not seem like the middle.
DeleteThanks GW. I watch the 2 year not the 1y. That’s where the fed is targeting their fed funds rate.
DeleteI put 2y below by accident. Thanks GW
DeleteIf the fed is going to target real yields, fed funds rate minus core PCI. They have a lot of rate hikes ahead.
DeletePCI? Not sure I'm following.
DeleteCore PCE.
DeleteThanks for clarifying TimH.
Delete2y lower lows lower highs
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pdAnwmvd/
KBE - (1x3)
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SPX - No "timeframe" (technically) -
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NDX (wkly) -
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With China in lockdown I'd assume we have to wait until some sort of timeline is published before the S&P higher low is set.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Here is a daily technical study I worked on yesterday while we are waiting for an Elliott count to better define itself.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3ZtsLkBK/
The Daily Anchored VWAPs (Volume Weighted Average Price) shows the 'average' prices paid by all from the recent all-time high, and the recent lows. Sometimes these forms area of support/resistance.
TJ
..also included in the study is the best 'alternate' count I see if prices crumble from here.
DeleteTJ
I know it’s wrong to use closing prices only, but it gives a different look to the chart of SPX. A different low and a w1 over lap is much lower.
DeleteLast Wed/Thurs tweezer btm has been exceeded.
ReplyDeleteCrude - an important juncture at hand
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/kcc1k885t6m2sn9/Crudecatapult.PNG/file
Beans - have printed 100% low pole, triggering new DTBO. (still below prior high).
ReplyDelete10yr yield - On the cusp of 40yr TL break (PnF) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/h5h93k9y61ubs5b/40yrTL_break.PNG/file
The next target is 3.30 ?
Delete👍
DeleteES (2hr) - current
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SH (dly) - A view from the "dark" side -
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Fed’s Charles Evans sees the neutral rate at 2.25 - 2.50 %. Bullard sees it at 3 - 3.5 %. At what point does the 3m/10y invert?
ReplyDeleteNeither of them knows what the terminal rate will be, they don't really control that. It will be market driven and the higher expectation likely closer to reality.
ReplyDeleteSPY cash 5-min: has a lower low. A divergence may be in the works short term. This 'might' be another 'a' wave of a double zigzag, lower. Won't know for a while.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cFW4LyeV/
Another alternative is a grinding diagonal, lower. Again: won't know for a while. Lower daily BBand is at ~4,389 futures.
TJ
yep; ES/SPY 5-min: now over prior fourth wave location on a divergence.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Av9QNTdk/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ