Thursday, April 28, 2022

No Overlap Yet

As long as there is no upward overlap on the ES 4-Hr chart, the black count, below is preferred. Looking at the RSI, the lowest low would be on minute ((iii)) of Minor 3.  And minute ((v)) of 3 is on the divergence.


So, today could have still been a fourth wave, which would be failing around the 9-day EMA (roughly the half-cycle of the 18-day SMA).

The alternate is also shown. It is the red count finishing at the low. If so, then this wave up would be all or part of a second wave up. We'll deal with that alternate if and when there is evidence for it.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe

19 comments:

  1. Rough opening for the evening session on APPL and AMZN earnings.
    TJ

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  2. McClellan Fin. Pub. article - Dollar's 8 yr cycle

    https://www.mcoscillator.com/

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  3. ES (2hr) - transitioning ?

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/h4uda3a8tz0baa9/es2hr%25282%2529.PNG/file

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  4. ES (2hr,[5x3]) - Two views, holding [for now] -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/drloam13ulmnocc/holdingfornow.PNG/file

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    Replies
    1. With the fed meeting next week, it sure looks like we get a lower low. I’ll be watching the VIX to see if we get a lower high.

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    2. A fair question that one might ask - what is everyone expecting?

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    3. If we don’t get a lower low, we would appear to be in a diagonal higher with the overlap.

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  5. SPY 15-min: There is a way to count 'five'down' and a break of a fractal low.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/oteCIwwu/

    But the RSI minimum might also just indicate a third wave. Watch the high of this candle for clues.
    TJ

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    Replies
    1. SPY 15-min: next factal low exceeded lower (in ES, too).

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/nB2jeeFW/

      We 'know' the short up wave had to be a :3 because there are lows after it.

      TJ

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    2. SPY 15-min: next fractal lower exceeded to the down side, too.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/U6Z9e82n/

      TJ

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    3. fyi - ES prior daily low exceeded lower below 4,147 @ 4,145.
      TJ

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    4. fyi - ES lower daily Bollinger Band dropping; was at 4,147; now down to 4,143.
      TJ

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  6. SPY 15-min; another :5 down is countable on a short-term chart.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/i8XJimTl/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. fyi - bottom band still dropping 4,134 now.
      TJ

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    2. ES tags lower band @ 4,129 and exceeds Tuesday's low.

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    3. ..also exceeds 15-Mar daily low, but not FEB low yet.
      TJ

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  7. SPY 15-min: second leg down currently shorter than the first in both cash & futures. Watch this relationship closely. Could easily be another segment down on Monday.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/034BtJmv/

    TJ

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  8. ES (2hr) - Neg. HD wins the day -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/9eafjt4qnn9jkp3/EShdwins.PNG/file

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  9. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete