As long as there is no upward overlap on the ES 4-Hr chart, the black count, below is preferred. Looking at the RSI, the lowest low would be on minute ((iii)) of Minor 3. And minute ((v)) of 3 is on the divergence.
So, today could have still been a fourth wave, which would be failing around the 9-day EMA (roughly the half-cycle of the 18-day SMA).
The alternate is also shown. It is the red count finishing at the low. If so, then this wave up would be all or part of a second wave up. We'll deal with that alternate if and when there is evidence for it.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Rough opening for the evening session on APPL and AMZN earnings.
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McClellan Fin. Pub. article - Dollar's 8 yr cycle
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ES (2hr) - transitioning ?
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ES (2hr,[5x3]) - Two views, holding [for now] -
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With the fed meeting next week, it sure looks like we get a lower low. I’ll be watching the VIX to see if we get a lower high.
DeleteA fair question that one might ask - what is everyone expecting?
DeleteIf we don’t get a lower low, we would appear to be in a diagonal higher with the overlap.
DeleteSPY 15-min: There is a way to count 'five'down' and a break of a fractal low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oteCIwwu/
But the RSI minimum might also just indicate a third wave. Watch the high of this candle for clues.
TJ
SPY 15-min: next factal low exceeded lower (in ES, too).
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We 'know' the short up wave had to be a :3 because there are lows after it.
TJ
SPY 15-min: next fractal lower exceeded to the down side, too.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/U6Z9e82n/
TJ
fyi - ES prior daily low exceeded lower below 4,147 @ 4,145.
DeleteTJ
fyi - ES lower daily Bollinger Band dropping; was at 4,147; now down to 4,143.
DeleteTJ
SPY 15-min; another :5 down is countable on a short-term chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/i8XJimTl/
TJ
fyi - bottom band still dropping 4,134 now.
DeleteTJ
ES tags lower band @ 4,129 and exceeds Tuesday's low.
Delete..also exceeds 15-Mar daily low, but not FEB low yet.
DeleteTJ
SPY 15-min: second leg down currently shorter than the first in both cash & futures. Watch this relationship closely. Could easily be another segment down on Monday.
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TJ
ES (2hr) - Neg. HD wins the day -
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A new post is started for the next day.
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