Sunday, March 27, 2022

Weekend Video - It's Been A While

Here is a short (8 minute) video with an overview of the Historical Dow Jones Industrial Average, and a chart which may be used to make a forecast.


It's been a while since I made one of these but thought it might be worthwhile. You might think the idea is a bit off-kilter, but it is based on EW logic. Perhaps the money printing has merely distorted the "size" of the latest waves since 2009.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend.

TraderJoe

32 comments:

  1. Thanks!! I miss these videos. 20 trillion in deficits and 10 trillion on the Feds balance sheet should at least buy a bullshit wave.

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  2. Thanks joe. Suppose that your super cycle iv ended at a in 2009. I think it's very close to being acceptable by degree violations versus the lower degree 4th wave in the 1970s. Then you basically have us in an impulse 5th duperwave in the third wave. That must be the primary alternate. The 4th wave if ended in 2009 traveled greater net distance and took same time as wave in 70s. Why wouldn't you consider the 4th being done super cycle. It had alternation and ewo approached 0. Now from that point you have counted five up and 3 down, meaning we may be in an impulse not a b wave? Perhaps it's abc because of trend line break since 2009?

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  3. Follow-up, perhaps the super cycle 4 needs a lot lot more Time?

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    Replies
    1. That is one item. Then, there are 'three-flats-in-row'. The three flats are 1) 2000 - 2009, 2010-2012, 2018-2020. In short there is 'no' alternation either unless one of them is a 'b' wave.

      Regards the 4th wave ending in 2009, besides its needing more 'time', then that would form a 'wedge' and not a parallel. Elliott said the waves travel primarily in parallels.

      Next, by my count 2009 - 2000 = 9 years, and 1982 - 1965 = 17 years. Yes, you can cut wave four off at 1974 for the nine years, but then, up trend lines get broken.

      That's the rationale.
      TJ

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  4. Last point, you pointed out that the b wave is smaller than the fifth wave of 3. However the subwave of b, or the move from 2009 to precovid high the a just completed, is larger than any subwave of 5th you referenced. So the upward move since covid is a counter trend rally, yet the largest wave of it's degree since 1920. Should we care?

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    Replies
    1. If it's at Cycle degree, technically it can be shorter in price & time than the largest SuperCycle wave. When I said 'shorter' in the video, it is shorter in time, and shorter in 'log distance' (or percentage?) than V of SC3. But again, it could still be larger.

      TJ

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    2. Joe, question about time in a similar vein of thought. Cycle wave II of SC3 took more time than SC2. I have no doubt SC2 is the undisputable degree label for the 1929 low, but doesn't this create a degree violation of some sort that needs to be investigated / reconciled?

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    3. @HFjord ..'potentially' it does. But keep in mind, 'from what we can see' neither did the 1929-32 crash 'take more time' than the prior up wave, as Neely might suggest in his audio interview. And if you somehow suggest a triangle or a large flat for 1929, all that does is shift the 'huge b wave problem' to 1929 from here. Whereas, here, we 'know' the FED is actively and still inflating the money supply. They haven't stopped buying assets even to this day.

      TJ

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  5. BTC - has broken out

    https://invst.ly/xrpwl

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    Replies
    1. Made it to the .382 fib. That may be the end of 4 now that stops are taken out.

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  6. What external retrace fib would you see of a-3 for b-3 within the exp. flat for [IV] ?

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    1. That's just it: it's completely unexpected. In nominal terms it is 4.236, but I urge you to plot DJI/GOLD which is nowhere even near close to the prior high.

      TJ

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    2. If we are to use this ratio for that determination, wouldn't we have to use the ratio for the whole duration (late 1800's forward)? This begins to look like a large exp. triangle.

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    3. @GW .. I'm not sure what you mean. Keep it simple. I'm focused on the money printing - which did not happen like it did at any other significant point in time.

      TJ

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    4. Simple version (from my perspective) - only within the last 13yrs Fed monetary policy is suddenly responsible for EW creation? Smacks of simple rationalization of the fact that the ext. retrace is far beyond anything acceptable for a "B" wave. That's how it looks from over here.

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    5. When is a 'rationalization' actually a 'reason'? When it is supported by the only known facts.

      https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/posts/2021/07/Fed-Balance-Sheet-vs-SP500.php

      TJ

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  7. SPXcfd (dly) - potential neg. HD at this time

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/paseuheu1dnu2nd/SPXcfddly.PNG/file

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  8. SPX & ETH - look familiar?

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/x2vk40yaubcbog9/Lookfamiliar.PNG/file

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  9. SPY 30-min: doesn't seem to really want to go anywhere yet after the new high.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/2Fmbp0Ck/

    TJ

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  10. SPy - [potential] bull trap peak

    https://invst.ly/xrz-g

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  11. SPY 2-min: notice the first down parallel. Granted the time frame is very short, I may have caught a c = 2.0 x a down wave.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/XDT5Vkft/

    So much for the 1.618 practical limit on 'c' waves. As I was watching the first down channel form, I was expecting that a fourth wave would never hold. It didn't. I wonder if down waves the form 'during the mid-sections of the day' do not have the 'volume' behind them to make them truly impulsive? It is just a thought.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. now into five-waves-up, non-overlapping, with that long, drawn-out fourth wave that breaks the 0-((2)) trend line.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/jEHOvd31/

      Looks like ((1)) is the extended wave. Whole wave 'might be' an 'a' wave.

      TJ

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  12. Replies
    1. IFF it's a diagonal, it may end soon. In any case, watch for the new trend line, and any breaks lower & re-test. No assumptions.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/WShNm4rk/

      TJ

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  13. SPXcfd - 4hr - current

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/g2xsth2ev0n0p0k/strong.PNG/file

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  14. We've surpassed the 100ma on cash and futures. Hard to imagine your long term chart not making one more high as you propose to convince everyone the market will never go down no matter what - war,fed,taxes,inflation,supply shocks etc. None of it matters in the "new paradigm".

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    Replies
    1. also slow stochastics are embedded bullish again, so there's that....

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  15. seems like its already convinced everyone so may not be necessary

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  16. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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