US Equity prices as measured by the ES E-mini S&P futures were higher overnight, and temporarily exceeded the 18-day SMA. But, they couldn't hold on to the gains and closed lower, below the 'line-in-the-sand'. The daily chart is below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Lower Close |
The hourly up count, if it is a five-wave-move is best described in this diagram in the SPX cash.
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| SPX Cash - 1 Hr - Five Waves Up? |
The black count is a completion count. Wave iv is at the 38% level. In the futures, wave iv is a triangle.
However, an alternate is possible, but looks less likely, and that is a (i), (ii), i, ii count shown in red. So, we must simply await larger fractal and trend line breaks to see how the rest of this wave occurs. Trading below the dashed up trend line, back-testing it, and failing the back-test would be a significant warning that wave minute ((c)) of Minor 5 is getting underway.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
What do you think about this author's comments on these "dubious patterns" found in the The Elliott Wave Principle, by Frost & Prechter?
ReplyDeletehttps://worldcyclesinstitute.com/trader-resources/trader-dubious-patterns/
I have the Frost/Prechter book and I've noted that TJ has posted leading diagonals and truncations so I'm at least a little skeptical of that author's claims
DeleteI have written to R. Prechter on several occasions about the errors in some of the patterns shown. He is aware the subsequent market movements did not always prove out the patterns being shown at the time. However, as to the author of the comments, I treat with great skepticism a person who has said 'no one has ever seen'. In fact, it was Tony Caldaro who helped identify the expanding diagonal and so at least one other has.
DeleteTJ
I also think it is worthwhile noting that two of us, BBRider & I identified this potential diagonal 'in real time'. The market is the market for Corn futures. There are actually 'two' diagonals in the first pattern. The first diagonal is the 'a' wave of wave ((i)).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JIv2Eqxm/
Because of the clear 'three-wave-look' to the internal sequences AND the internal overlaps, it is exceptionally difficult to count the pattern any other way (i.e. it does not count impulsively).
If you don't think such pattern analysis has merit, then have a look at where prices have gone since, in this following link.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UwP4GLSY/
This pattern 'proves' to the extent that one can prove anything that the 3-3-3-3-3 diagonal, under the right circumstances, can also be 'leading'. Some less knowledgeable people online have claimed a leading diagonal can 'only' be the 5-3-5-3-5 type. Not true.
BTW the author of that paper has shown to be one of the 'less knowledgeable' types online: dogmatic, inflexible, less willing to learn and explore & definitely less willing to do the work for himself so that the lessons 'stick'.
TJ
ES - current (DBBO triggered)
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xk5ry
Back to the scene of the crime (breakdown level) for retest.
DeleteES daily - lower low day already suggests 'swing line' turned lower under the 18-day SMA.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/z6kjbhPv/
TJ
Since yesterday top, is an expanding diagonal being develope? That's what I see.
ReplyDelete'possible' but must develop fully.
DeleteTJ
For readers: I'm sorry, I forgot to comment that I'm talking about the ES index.
DeleteYou got me, Joe. Thanks.
ES 2-Hr futures: provides the newest trend line and local fractals to watch.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sMlxzfiI/
TJ
ES testing trend line at 4,300 at present.
DeleteTJ
ES 1-Hr (just fyi) ..the S2 daily pivot is approximately 4,298 and has been touched.
DeleteTJ
ES - Support area
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xkf6s
Ending diagonal on NQ 5 mins.
ReplyDeletehttp://tos.mx/56QaPFc
WTI,GOLD - both attempting to retrace their 50% high poles. Watching for possible bull trap(s) as possible mini tops (if not more).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/4v6uge1t091zbdc/wtigold.PNG/file
ES 2-Hr .. first down (red) fractal back has just broken lower. A new up fractal is added.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/z9nkaAya/
TJ
5 non overlapping waves down.
ReplyDeleteWTI,GOLD update - both are a box away from testing prior high. Higher lows, higher highs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/aztols2esdtv4kz/updatewtigold.PNG/file
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ