Thursday, March 24, 2022

Post-Pattern Confirmation (PPC) - Step 2 Did Not Occur

Post-Pattern Confirmation (PPC) - Step 2 Did Not Occur today. That required a retrace that did not go over the prior high. By 4:05 pm ET today the ES futures ticked over the prior high. We did count a potential diagonal downward correctly. Only it was its contracting triple zigzag counterpart that was leg c of the new running triangle shown below on the SPY cash 30-minute chart.




The prior upward count did not have critical alternation for the fourth wave. Now we know why. The new count provides a clear sideways triangle to alternate with the directional sharp wave (ii). The 0 - ((ii) trend line now clearly shows a break for wave (iv). And now, the time taken in wave (iv) clearly exceeds the time taken in wave (iii).

Wave (v) can now run a bit if it wants. Well, try as hard as one can to count properly, there are a lot of things to consider. We were counting upward after the diagonal leg today. That was a real plus! But, we clearly did not count out the new shape of the wave, until we could look at if after the close. That's OK. We have a nice impulse wave shape in formation which might be an excellent example of the things to keep in mind while counting. And, the clear impulse likely means we got the truncation bottom entirely correct.

Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe

30 comments:

  1. SPY (30m) A quick peek back down a road just traveled. For discussion (or not). :o)

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/a21xkt15q2wlbd3/Startingpoints.PNG/file

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    1. Yes, interesting because a triangle's (e) wave can be a higher low that qualifies. We know that large 'thrusts' can result from those (e) waves with 'speed' and new highs or lows. And so can a running second wave - as it has a higher low right before that 'wonder to behold' third wave. This is in addition to the 'b' wave or 'x' wave that truncates. That being said, Neely's lecture centered on 'moves off the bottom'.

      TJ

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    2. Actually, he was talking about certain type of behavior that has to occur at a top or bottom (all inclusive).

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    3. I believe he made a distinction that it applies to waves at 'polywave' or higher.

      TJ

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  2. Two interesting charts (indirectly related) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/4dr2nmz3lr9kb9o/Twointerestingcharts.PNG/file

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    1. The fed always makes a policy mistake. They will raise rates until the market breaks like they have in the past.

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    2. SPX - daily P&F new target 5149

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    3. Yep. 520 on SPY (but we have closer targets to achieve first). :o)

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  3. SPX above 200ma -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/us25i4x28nffevs/SPXa200.PNG/file

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  4. MJ - Smoke screen? (or smoke 'em if you got 'em)?

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/warqmg4wjyy8x1t/Gotta_light.PNG/file

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  5. Soybean barrier triangle has hit all the boxes.

    https://imgur.com/dN2K34W

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  6. Avg Yield Curve - pertinent info from the boys at SentimenTrader

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/f8llhi0rt96wutk/AvgYC.PNG/file

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  7. SPX - 4550 = .618 retrace from ATH

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  8. SPY cash - 30-min: opening gap closed, approaching ii-iv trend line. Can still be a sub-wave of five.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/vBmfAkeY/

    TJ

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    1. SPY cash 30-min: now a break of the ii - iv trend line in 'less time'.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/mJhyKlLM/

      TJ

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  9. SPY - high pole

    https://invst.ly/xraz2

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  10. SPY 1-min: upward correction has already taken more 'time' and is past the 38.2% mark.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/1isp5CiH/

    TJ

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  11. As aside - Reference for vertical counts (PnF) [if interested]

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/0z9qr5tcz45iyd1/CountReference.PNG/file

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  12. SPY 1-min: fun fact. Correction is now about 2.5 times down wave. Will that do it? Need to look for lows below ((X))'s.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/NopA1Zxc/

    TJ

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    1. ..now the upwave wave is more than 3x the down wave and is just past 62%. Truly .. three times.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/WAGtNGls/

      TJ

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    2. ..now 4x and 78.6%. Hard to describe it; something seems out-of-whack.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/fKb4BMVu/

      TJ

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  13. Very interesting on the Vertical Counts, GW. Thank you

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  14. SPX (cash) - a different (supplemental) perspective [if interested]

    https://ibb.co/vxtsHPp

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  15. SPY 5-min: bit of a night-mare count.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/hAZMvTVw/

    TJ

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    1. ..now break of up channel, and clear overlap on the w wave.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/I9qIvvdz/

      TJ

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    2. .and now overlap on 'a' of w.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/3a4sa3xy/

      TJ

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  16. Sort of a rodeo at the end. ES and cash touched the 100ma, but no close above. Sunday and Monday should be interesting.

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  17. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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