Today, after what looked like a high after the triangle, we tried counting downward. It worked for a while, then it didn't work, then it worked again, then - in the last half-hour - it didn't again. As a result, I have no firm conclusions, but a couple of options. It is possible that non-linear and overlapping action on the ES 2-Hr futures below is either a leading diagonal or we have passed the first wave (i) and are making the red a-b waves, with a downward corrective wave to follow.
Today was reminiscent of the typical "Goldman Sachs" buy-back in the last half-hour, and it was a Friday after-all. So be it. It made the internal wave structure very difficult to count, and therefore, I would be as happy with the b wave as I would be with the diagonal.
This chart & commentary was added on Saturday morning. When one looks at cash rather than futures, with 130 candles on the 30-min chart, it is possible that a v = i move might still occur.
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| SPX - 30 min - Close Only |
Maybe the minor break of the ii - iv trend line is what Elliott would have called a typical 'throw-under' and is a second wave after a "Running Flat" that ended with the diagonal counted out in real time. This pattern would be signaled by a gap-up on Sunday night. The chart is still offered in the spirit of questioning.
Have an excellent start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks ET, really stressful waves. I think there is an interest in mutual funds to have high index levels by the end of the month and quarter. A matter of makeup. It's a manipulated market with crazy reactions, but someone is buying big put positions again.
ReplyDeleteI may be wrong, but I think this is a bear market rally trap.
My question is whether these levels can be holded until the 31st.
DeleteSPX/CRB - nearing .618
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7b9cpy1fcxsoj12/SPXCRB.PNG/file
ES (2hr) -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/l2gr6cs081btegh/ES2hr.PNG/file
BPIs-
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/73ttd5jls0grouq/BPIs.PNG/file
https://schrts.co/cFXGZWwq
ReplyDeleteAre we going to break these downtrends? Maybe, but I doubt it. When is the best time to buy IEF or TLT? any thoughts? I think it’s after the last fed rate hike or inversion of 3m/10y.
Longer term .. on the 10-Yr, there is a trend line break, and ...
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SD3HQsef/
even a 23.6% retrace in rates is 4%. There will be backing and filling, but if it doesn't reach that level, first, it would be fairly surprising from an EW perspective.
TJ
..and shorter term, using $TNX as a proxy. The 'fives' are in the direction of the trend, and the EWO is at a recent high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/n8e7wc8M/
TJ
Thanks for your perspective TJ.
DeleteA new chart and commentary was added to this post on Saturday morning.
ReplyDeleteTJ
BTC (30min) - thoughts/observations [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xrisl
SPX (30min) - Measures/observations only (note: would be different with H-L)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/dozfbgdbea0nqav/spx30line.PNG/file
TJ and GW,
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the charts and education.
HYG - First sell signal
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/m4dsya3zbjamk92/HYG.PNG/file
Fascinating week ahead. 10 day average TRIN in over-bought, three official confirmed simultaneous Hindenburg Omens on the clock, convergent Bradley Siderograph, Phi Mate, and Fib Cluster turn dates. How central bank hegemony over equity prices end will be interesting. Will it be voluntary as they follow through with tightening via rate hikes and balance sheet run-off, or will they try to avoid recession and decide run-away inflation is a more tolerable outcome?
DeleteFrom Neely - Interesting
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxIlABgzggc
Thanks. I’ve always thought there was decay in futures and it’s good to hear it confirmed by Neely.
DeleteI thought the idea (if I understood him correctly) of "slanted" price bars dependent upon whether the high or low occurred first was quite interesting.
DeleteClearly stated also in Mastering Elliott Wave, in the section on plotting data.
DeleteTJ
Spot Gold - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/n5mnqkrbwgmngnk/SpotGold.PNG/file
SPY (dly) - on a "buy" currently
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/lgbqiff4oiotga3/SPYdlypnf%25282%2529.PNG/file
ReplyDeleteRBOB - on "buy" (in consolidation)
https://invst.ly/xrp5o
A new and very important post has been started for the next day. It includes a short (8 minute) video.
ReplyDeleteTJ
As we head into spring weather here in North Carolina I've been very busy. With the Vix dropping below the 50 day ma and as long as that trend continues I'd assume the up trend is in progress. I'll drop a link.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/v2CkLOPD-Is-SPY-in-uptrend-One-last-time/
Continued study with Martin Pring suggest sector rotation is in stage 4 or 5. If my understanding is correct we could alternate back and forth between sector stages. Pring suggest using a simple monthly chart CRB, SPY, TLT above 12 ma bullish below bearish. Anyone ever used this idea? TLT would be bullish if it's only above 12ma.