Friday, March 11, 2022

Next Week Tells the Story

Next week we will find out if this pattern completes properly or does not. We continue to follow both versions closely: a potential contracting diagonal in cash, and the same or a potential expanding diagonal in the ES 8-hr futures (see second chart at this LINK for the expanding variety diagonal).

SPX Cash - Daily Close - Potential Contracting Diagonal

So far, things remain on track - although intraday counting requires patience and flexibility. Today was choppy most of the day until prices let go and made some lower lows into the close. Some of the intraday counting is in the comments for the prior post.

Have an excellent start to the weekend.

TraderJoe

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23 comments:

  1. RonbMarch 11, 2022 at 5:00 PM

    Thanks TJ have a good weekend.

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  2. GreywaverMarch 11, 2022 at 6:18 PM

    SPY - looking ahead

    https://invst.ly/xn0h0

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  3. GreywaverMarch 11, 2022 at 8:09 PM

    NYA - long term look

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/409kn9gzqp2zqeo/NYAlongterm.PNG/file

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    1. GreywaverMarch 11, 2022 at 10:25 PM

      (nice Bear trap at the 2020 low). Began and ended with a trap. 👍

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    2. RonbMarch 11, 2022 at 11:18 PM

      Thanks for all of your updates. Gonna try to read up on P&F charting this weekend. I got Covid bad in January and have been recovering at home so I had to do something so I've been trying to get better at counting waves. Trying to keep learning. Some day soon I'll eventually will have to go back to work. Happy to be alive! Have a good weekend.

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  4. GreywaverMarch 11, 2022 at 11:14 PM

    SPY (mthly) line chart - Can file this under fwiw. :o)

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/3x3kto9p0nojxkm/SPYmthlyline.PNG/file

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    1. TachyonMarch 12, 2022 at 8:59 AM

      Hi GW. Appreciate your charts. Do you expect SPX to follow in issuing death crosses as DJIA snd NDX already have? I think that technical development could be probative so far as the likely EW count goes. Thanks!

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    2. GreywaverMarch 12, 2022 at 11:24 AM

      To be honest, I don't pay attention to them. They tend to be late, and its not uncommon to see price bottoming (at least to some notable degree) near/at the crossing (like a lot of moving avg crosses). Moving avg crosses I prefer to monitor are those on momentum. "Mo" typically (not always) leads price, so a so called "death" cross of 50/200 on momentum would be of interest for a longer term view. But, that's just me. Strictly a personal choice. :-)

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    3. Elliott_TraderMarch 12, 2022 at 1:34 PM

      @Tachy ..I tend to agree with GW's comments with the exception of the moving averages know as BIll Williams' Alligator when used on the daily chart. Here you can see how the averages crossed much earlier than the standard 'death cross' and gave me increased confidence to call the down turn.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/WyAIkWM2/

      I follow it every day, on the daily, even though I don't publish it, and also use it in 'wave-counting' on other time frames in modified form (EMA-34).

      TJ

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    4. TimHMarch 12, 2022 at 1:50 PM

      Thanks TJ & GW. I usually look for w4 to pullback to .764 or .618. Where you place w3 makes a huge difference. W3 could be up higher? Also I’m not sure if anyone mentioned this, but we have an open gap at 4020 SPX. Right in my target zone.

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    5. TachyonMarch 12, 2022 at 2:04 PM

      Thanks guys...insightful...

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    6. Elliott_TraderMarch 12, 2022 at 3:22 PM

      @TimH .. not sure what you are referring to.
      TJ

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    7. TimHMarch 12, 2022 at 4:05 PM

      TJ - referring to GW chart above, he has w3 ending at September high. Avi has w3 ending at November high and the guys at TA has w3 ending in January ATH. Not saying those two are right. That’s the dilemma with wave counting. We have three intelligent people all believing their counts are correct. Obviously all three can’t be correct. No disrespect meant by this comment to you as I do respect your work and would not still be here otherwise. ATB

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    8. Elliott_TraderMarch 12, 2022 at 4:46 PM

      @TimH .. thanks for the explanation; no disrespect taken. You have to admit at least one thing: the guys at TA are completely ignoring the already published guideline that when the supposed 2nd wave is less than 38.2%, then w3 should be 'shorter in price' than w1. In their count (w3 at the Jan 22 high) it is 'NOT'. This is published by 'both' Prechter & Neely. So, if the TA guys are correct, it is 'by luck' and not by following the published rules & guidelines. You also have to remember the TA guys are doing their work so TG can run a hedge fund. Isn't it interesting how many times they say, "Stay Optimistic". Can this be a 'conflict of interest' for their investors? I don't know. I'm not a lawyer. I say I'm not optimistic & I'm not pessimistic. I say 'count the waves', just 'count the waves'. I have allowed in my alternate count that this 'could' be red Intermediate (4) all the way back in my 20 Jan post at this link:

      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2022/01/long-term-wedge-has-clearly-broken-down.html

      This would be the case if the diagonal above is 'ending' and not 'leading'. Just 'count the waves' and pay attention to the sentiment and the technical posture of the market. Right now the market is not over-sold. Right now, sentiment is more 'middle of the road' not extreme high or low percent bullish or bearish. Right now, put-call ratio is 'middle of the road'; not near 0.35 and not near 1.00. So, a wash-out might be due.

      We are about to have a major test of Neely's 0 - 2 trend line guideline (all of wave 3 must be above the 0 - 2 trend line). We will find out if there must be an exception for the case where the first wave is the extended wave. Right now all of wave 3 is in no way above the 0 - 2 trend line for me, for the TA guys or for Avi. It is simply an objective idea Neely has. Will it work? We've not had a good test at this degree of trend.

      My recommendation is to stop paying attention to 'people'. Start giving more attention to what is being suggested are the rules & guidelines for counting waves. Secondly, people that run hedge funds and 'for pay' web-sites should be treated as suspect because they are trying to keep 'customers'. The TA guys refuse to admit how badly they botched this one up. They got the turn entirely wrong. Other web-sites and YouTube videos got the turn entirely wrong (e.g. TradingLounge that was looking for iii of 3, UP, not down). The reason they get it wrong is they just don't pay attention to the criteria above.

      Believe who you like. I read & watch some of these things and just smile sometimes.

      TJ

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    9. GreywaverMarch 12, 2022 at 5:14 PM

      Just to clarify - regarding Tim's three intelligent people, actually only two. :o) My chart was not a "count", but rather simply noticing how the move up (regardless of what it actually is) "fits" the model so far. Of course, a mthly line chart, with only 1 plot per month, could hardly be of use even if one were trying to count waves with it (in my thinking, anyway). I just thought it was interesting how it could be "seen" as "fitting" the model. Sorry for the confusion! (now traps/poles... that's a different story). :o)

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    10. TimHMarch 12, 2022 at 5:26 PM

      👍👍👍 thank you and may the correct count be with you.

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  5. GreywaverMarch 12, 2022 at 12:24 PM

    TNX - long term view [if interested]

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/7i6k9wzez6kx1cw/TNX_long_term.PNG/file

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  6. GreywaverMarch 12, 2022 at 1:33 PM

    WTI - short term look [if interested]

    https://invst.ly/xn5wd

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    1. GreywaverMarch 12, 2022 at 1:51 PM

      Here's a longer term look at Crude itself -

      https://www.mediafire.com/view/wu43dred8owgflz/Crude_mid.PNG/file

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  7. GreywaverMarch 12, 2022 at 7:02 PM

    IXIC - 2 views (wkly/dly) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/0ophov5y0t241wm/IXIC2views.PNG/file

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    1. GreywaverMarch 12, 2022 at 11:04 PM

      Addendum: CPRI - Its like getting a new car, and now you start noticing everyone else that has the same model. 👀

      https://www.mediafire.com/view/kejdydsxjq4zdvb/Bingo.PNG/file

      Just had to share this. Conditioned response. :o)

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  8. GreywaverMarch 13, 2022 at 8:10 AM

    Silver - retest ?

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/6riao6i0r83wv7d/Silverretest.PNG/file

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