Last of Month / First of Month

This is just a reminder that today was the last day of the month and may have seen some sloppiness due to typical month-end 'window-dressing'. And tomorrow is the first of the month which often sees inflows from pension funds, 401k's, company bonus plans and, dividend reinvestment roll-overs, etc.

Today we were trying to count the fourth and fifth waves up of the potential (c) wave from yesterday's daily (8-hr) chart. This is what we have, so far.

ES Futures - 2 Hr - Triangle iv or diagonal (c)

After greater than a 100 point down movement in the ES futures last night, including a significant gap, there was some very skillful manipulation of price (probably by the PPT) to keep it from making a lower low. Price came within 95% of that prior low but did not pierce it - this is all while the cash market was closed. Thus, it was impossible to tell if the first move down was a, and there would be a lower low c wave down. As noted a lower low never happened, and, thus, a truncation was assumed.

After the cash open, prices ground & ground an eventually made a marginal higher high. So, that said, it looks like we either have a barrier triangle or a diagonal going on. It is difficult to tell which. Cash looked to have a Flat wave for wave four, and that chart was posted in the comments for yesterday's post.

The typical rules (for diagonals & triangle) and typical triangle targets apply. A diagonal must not have wave v longer than wave iii. And for the triangle - if this is a typical barrier triangle - then price might fall short of the widest-width of the triangle added to the breakout point.

Have an excellent start to your evening.

TraderJoe