At some point expect a significant second wave, up.

ES futures made a new lower low day on the daily chart. That keeps the daily swing-line headed lower. Price remains below the 18-day SMA, and so the bias remains down. Today, on a shorter-term time frame we got very close to confirming five-waves-down, as shown in the ES 30-min chart, below, which now has about 100 candles on it, close to the 120 - 160 recommended.

The current wave is traveling within a parallel channel to a large degree. Today, it looked like a ivth wave running triangle (shown) had formed that met all the usual Elliott Wave rules for a triangle, and also had the right ending point on the Elliott Wave Oscillator (circled). IFF that is the case, then a lower low can be expected but also so can a pretty significant turn-around on this time frame, after lower lows. There are a couple of conditions: 1) we are assuming the wave structure did not truncate at this afternoon's higher low, and 2) technically, as long as price does not overlap wave i, down, then we can still be in fourth wave, iv. Such a wave could be a more complex structure. This is The Fourth Wave Conundrum and it occurs at every degree of trend. 

So, it might be worth watching the overnight to see if the 4,357 low is taken out or not or whether overlap develops. It looks like that wave ((1)), down and ((2)), up of five have formed. If so, a gap down in the over-night for ((3)) down, might later fill during the day on a turn-around Tuesday. There are no guarantees, of course. (None of this is intended as trading or investment advice - just a description of possible wave progress).

There is no way to reduce risk to nothing by wave counting, but the above chart, with 100 candles does suggest that if a fifth wave, v, lower forms it should do so on a divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator.

Happy Valentine's,

TraderJoe