Depending on which quotes you believe, the ES E-mini S&P futures either joined the NASDAQ 100 (NQ) futures with a lower low than the January low, or they did not. Regardless, the downward progress is sufficient enough to see wave Minor 5 in progress. (The symbol 5 > means the fifth wave is likely still in progress).
With the lower low today, the daily swing line remains lower. Readers of this blog should plot the 18-day SMA and 18-day Bollinger Bands, and this is the first recent daily close below the lower band. That makes the 'rough' probability of the next close below the band only around 5 - 10%. This is a location where Ira Epstein (broker with the Lind Group) would recommend 'no new shorts' because of the low probability. To paraphrase Ira, "the Smart Money is likely lightening up on at least some of their positions at the lower band."
This is not trading or investment advice - just a paraphrase of what Ira teaches in his public videos, and it is not always the case. Sometimes, price 'latches on' to the lower daily band and 'rides it lower". This second scenario would be more in line with the expanding diagonal scenario, although sharp rebounds are possible at any time.
So, the second price target of the January low was met today. The third target will be 5 > 3. There may be more after that. Stay tuned.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
If my math is right, 5 is greater than 3 below 4063 on cash S&P. There's also a gap between 4020 and 4034 that occurred on 4/1-4/2 of last year, so seems there is a confluence of targets in the 4000-4100 range. I believe GW has pointed out the same. Will be interesting to see what kind of support those target levels offer.
ReplyDelete👍 thanks. We appear to be in wave 3 of C down. 4125 looks interesting. I would be a large buyer at 3800 if we got there. We are already seeing positive divergences in VIX & RSI.
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/EWbIcbtW
Thanks Joe....appreciate your work but have not been following diligently...is there a link to where you may have discussed why the 1-2 and 3-4 cannot be (or is not likely to be) nested 1-2..1-2?
ReplyDeleteHi Chuck . In short it is because the second ii, (i.e. 1-2,i,ii) would be a price degree violation. In other words, you would be saying that a smaller degree ii, would be actually larger in price than what you are claiming is the 'larger' degree 2. (2 means larger than ii in Elliott Wave).
DeleteIt is too lengthy for me to explain it to you, but long time Elliotician Glenn Neely has done an audio interview on the topic that you can listen to at the link, below
Top Five Mistakes in Counting Elliott Waves
TJ
Thank you...much appreciated..
DeleteI didn't realize I got logged out, I've been following TJ for more than 4 years
DeleteXLE (dly) - Measures [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/17fwy6tf44rfuu0/XLE.PNG/file
ES - short term - Reversal target reached. (like the Energizer Bunny) :o)
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xhh3g
Good morning all. Dow (YM) futures have reached the 5 > 3 target needed to prove out a diagonal in that index.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4oNqC3qD/
TJ
Morning TJ. I'm probably getting ahead of myself but what are your thoughts on whether this expanding diagonal is a wave 1 of Primary C or whether it's wave i of 1 of Primary C? More context on my question below:
DeleteIf the target for Primary C is below that of the March 2020 lows, and if I make an 'assumption' that the diagonal is soon to be complete, if not already, the 1.61 extension plus reasonable allowance for wave 5 still doesn't get us below the March 2020 lows.
Thx
Unknown - I believe ET has a policy of not responding to anonymous posts.
Delete(now watch mine show up as "unknown" also .. LOL)
Thanks for keeping your focus on the prospects for that 5th wave down.
DeleteIs there any way to distinguish at this time, whether these five waves down constitute a C wave down in a "bullish" 4th wave with a B wave high? Versus 5 waves down as an LD1 in a new bear? I've seen counts at the "B" wave top that really do appear to meet valid EW criteria for a 5th wave completion. Interesting times.
This question is indeed premature for two reasons. First, we don't know how long the diagonal itself will be in price length. Second, if you listened to the Glenn Neely interview, above, @10:10 PM, there 'must be' post-pattern confirmation. For a leading diagonal, that means a retrace that does not exceed the all-time-high, and then a lower swing low below the low of the diagonal. For the ending diagonal possibility of a fourth wave down, (the red alternate from the 20 January main post) there 'must be' a higher high.
DeleteNothing can be said until/unless specific conditions are met. This is what I have termed "The Fourth Wave Conundrum" and it happens at 'every' degree of trend.
TJ
I didn't realize that I was signed out. Thanks for point it out Pedro. My name is also TJ, been following the pro TJ for about 4 years now.
DeleteThx TJ for the reply. My question was indeed a hypothetical one assuming the said post-patter confirmations occur, is this wave i of 1 or wave 1? Thx again
@TJ .. how do you know it is not A or (A) of a larger diagonal. Put the thinking cap on, and 'have patience'.
DeleteTJ
Regarding the "post-pattern confirmation", is there no way then to back up one pattern and examine the hypothesis that we topped in a final 5 wave ending diagonal at the "B" wave high? (meant for exposition purposes, not labeling) So instead, can one ask if the downward move we've been in can provide confirmation for what presumably came before it? Please feel free to treat this as a rhetorical remark, because I'm confident if such a conclusion could by now have already been drawn, you would have found the basis for drawing it.
Delete@pedro; it is a matter of probabilities. It always is. I will post more about this tomorrow.
DeleteTJ
SPX - breadth index -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/k40x7pekodt9yz6/bpspx.PNG/file
Thanks for the continued good work!
DeleteTJ
Stocks above 20 dma. SPX - 7 NDX - 2. Oversold. Reminder - VIX trades below 40 - 97% of time. Below 50 - 98% of time.
DeleteHopefully, some degree of repayment for yours. Thanks!
DeleteCL2! - a quick peek at Crude -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/saig93bzbosdy3g/CL%25212.PNG/file
NQ 30mins tagging the channel.
ReplyDeletehttp://tos.mx/2Gk6E1H
that's what I see, too. Thanks for posting it, E_D_T.
DeleteTJ
ES - short term, update
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xhups
As long as RSI remains under or rejected at midline, still price weakness.
DeleteGC (dly) testing prior DT resistance at 1960. Bullish catapult in play (target 2100). Fwiw, seasonal not good looking forward - Courtesy of SentimenTrader
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/7odnqr8ylj5i865/seasonal.PNG/file
SPXU (2day) Comments welcome -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/fwytqkzgip91yvv/SPXU.PNG/file
Thank you GW.
DeleteInteresting GW. Thanks for your thoughts
ReplyDeleteVIX - gap closed
ReplyDeleteES - update
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xhvm3
Very similar price action to Jan 24th, both days had 4% moves off the bottom.
ReplyDelete