Today was the celebration of President's Day. So, electronic markets traded only a half-session until the 1 PM ET close. Just a couple of notes from the ES futures daily chart, below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Lower Low day |
Today's bar made a lower low than Friday's. There is no taking that away. and thus, the daily swing line continues lower. The daily bias continues lower. Price hit the lower daily Bollinger band and the daily slow stochastic is currently in over-sold territory.
Keep in mind that today's bar does not 'close' until after Tuesday's session, however. Also, keep in mind that 'none' of this day's bar currently shows up in the cash market.
As far as I can tell, 14 Feb was minute ((a)) wave down, as it has fewer bars (less time) as less price travel than Minor 3, and thus qualifies as the sub-wave. It is likely that we have started the minute ((c)) wave lower, although, again because today's bar does not show up in cash, we may have to whip around again for a second wave. In other words today 'may have' been a 'b' wave. We don't have to. We 'could' just plunge into a three-of-((c)), but price is at the lower band in an over-sold condition, so we'll have to further observe the overnight conditions.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
Thought this was(is) interesting - Courtesy of Tom Bowley, Stockcharts
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/y5y5wlvgrh0vy7x/Tom_Bowley.PNG/file
Yeah extreme
DeleteCfd (dly) Late look - (supplemental)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/cgqapyp5l1q992s/LateLook.PNG/file
Hello tj .
ReplyDeleteIf this is indeed c down for minor 5 down, to complete intermediate 1 down, After we would expect some kind of structure for intermediate 2 UP.
Could this 2 up, in any way or form, go over the (now presumably formed) top?
Thank you
no, not if it's Intermediate (2). Only if it becomes Intermediate (5).
DeleteTJ
So you mean “only if it becomes intermediate (5)”, UP as you have shown in the alt count from januari 21 I suppose?
DeleteThanks
yes, from the red alt count.
DeleteTJ
Thank you! Clear!
DeleteES 30-min: well here is the 'swing around' suggested in the post, which may be the 'c' wave of (ii) of minute ((c)) down.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Wouldn’t it be possible that we finished minute ((a)) of Minor 4 recently and have started this night your time minute ((b))?
DeleteNot likely. I assume you read the post? Then minute ((a)) would be 'longer in time' than all of Minor 3 and could not qualify as a sub-wave by degree labeling.
DeleteTJ
ES 4-Hr: here are thoughts on where we are in the count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8dXcMaLw/
TJ
NQ 5 mins chart from the low yesterday.
ReplyDeletehttp://tos.mx/3Ir7iYO
NQ 5 mins break down so far.
Deletehttp://tos.mx/7glzuOf
Break of the trend line and expanding diagonal upwards.
Deletehttp://tos.mx/2bVTFXq
ES 30-min: down out of parallel showing a reduction in momentum. There are ways it can still rescue itself, such as making a larger upward diagonal (c) wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8VUWNync/
But, at this time, there is no sign of it. Now down to 62% retrace level. And, in no case, is wave (ii) allowed below the overnight low.
TJ
ES 30-min down ward overlap on wave ((1)), up.
DeleteTJ
SPY cash (2 Hr) - just fyi - the fractal lows at 25 Jan and 28 Jan are now broken lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dK4xekOA/
TJ
ES - short term (supplemental) -
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xg-il
TJ,
ReplyDeleteCan a wave 2 in a diagonal be a triangle? I thought it can only be in a wave 4 in an impulse. But it looks like one in the ES.
https://www.tradingview.com/i/cuv8yPip/
no Ron. It is likely the item you are sketching is not a triangle. Triangles normally 'exit' somewhere near their apex. Your pattern is still 'wide open' and thus likely not a triangle.
DeleteTJ
Ok thanks
DeleteAUSUSD - (dly) - I did this chart for someone who trades currencies. I thought it might be something of interest here (this would likely be viewed as supplemental info for most).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/c7q99nlca900tqr/AUDdowntrend.PNG/file
FCX (dly) - A test of all time high? [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ss061wr8osobtg0/FCX.PNG/file
Right here on ES is were it gets interesting. A truncated 5 on the ED would be c of 4 since covid bottom. A double sneak under channel to set the trap.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand. Do you have a chart?
DeleteWhy gamble on a truncated wave while it's still potentially running? I have iii of either a Wave 4 'C,' or iii of 5 of a new bear Wave 1, but I'm far from an expert.
DeleteJust an alternate. Even if we get a full Expanding Diagonal, we still do not know if it was ending or leading.
DeleteNot the right number of candles but here is the idea.
https://imgur.com/TlrKdr9
The even bigger question is on a retrace, you could have 5 fail as Neeley suggest all major tops do.
Again just trying to think of alternates and how market would fool the most.
I will admit that it would be a real shitty looking impulse from covid bottom. With decades of debt and know printed money form the fed in the last ten years why wouldn't the last wave struggle to produce decent impulse.
DeleteJeremy Grantham makes a good case for this being a supper bubble.
@BBR .. yes, that is the ALT count as shown on Thursday Jan 20, 2022, at this link.
DeleteLong Term Wedge Has Clearly Broken Down
What's different?
TJ
ES - short term - Congestion
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xhd2p
We have the "In" col., looking for "Out".
DeleteES 10-min: clear five-wave impluse from the overnight high. Can go lower if it wishes.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Decline from yesterday afternoon equal to decline from todays morning and 5 waves down can be easily seen.
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5th wave break down.
Deletehttp://tos.mx/UkaDCk8
Extended 5th wave ?
Deletehttp://tos.mx/HLGAvjY
Confirmed extended 5th.
Deletehttp://tos.mx/6To06B1
Cfd - if my math is close, looks like ((c)) of 5 will need to be about 2 times length of ((a)) to have 5 > 3.
ReplyDeleteES 5-min: here is that next impulse down shown using The Eight Fold Path Method to approximate 100+ candles.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/v4ySKMTu/
TJ
Pfizer and moderna stocks look awful.
ReplyDeleteWill they lead the way to show wich count will be correct?
ReplyDeleteI guess we will find something out soon
ES daily - new daily low. Keeps the swing line headed lower - unless today fully reverses (outside range day higher) which seems less likely at this point.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES - short term - have broken out of congestion to downside (continuation). Target area is 4090, confluent with vertical of 4100. We shall see.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: just acknowledging that price has hit the intraday S1 pivot (standard calculation). Intraday Bollinger Bands temporarily removed for clarity.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9xGAua4D/
TJ
Cfd - Jan low slightly exceeded.
ReplyDeleteES - where we currently stand (supplemental) -
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xhels