ES futures prices failed again at the 18-day SMA, and made a lower low day, turning the daily swing line lower again.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Lower Low Day |
The count remains the same. The initial target is the lower daily Bollinger Band, and likely lower than wave Minor 3 in this count. We think we have made the minute ((a)) wave down of Minor 5, down, and likely have finished the minute ((b)) up wave yesterday, unless this minor ((b)) wave turns out to be a flat. But at this time there is no sign of that, we just mention it as the next best short-term alternative possibility.
The daily bias is still down, and the daily slow stochastic is not in over-sold territory making more downward progress that much more likely.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks!
ReplyDeleteAn aside - Tin's Most Excellent Adventure [if interested] -
https://www.mediafire.com/view/58dwsyrqcxkd0pw/TIN.PNG/file
Here is a potential reason for the overnight rise in the ES futures.
ReplyDeleteUS & Russia Propose Dates for Meeting
TJ
Not chart related but wanted to share a local radio station is running an add for a liquor store that is trying to sell drinks from the roaring 20's.
ReplyDeleteI'll have me a Gin Rickey and a Sidecar with a sugar rim!
DeleteSPX Cash 15-min: there is a new overlap warning this morning. If it is hit it might suggest that the minute ((b)) wave will be a larger flat, as the low is currently only 90% of the prior low in cash.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IzMTd3T2/
Also, watch the newest down channel for clues.
TJ
SPX cash lower low makes 'five-waves-down' in cash. Likely minuet (i) down of minute ((c)) of 5. Can go lower if it wants.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hfslyQba/
Once above wave iv, draw Fibonacci retrace levels.
TJ
Thanks TJ,
DeleteDoes below 90% is enough to invalidate flat b or the benchmark something else..where can we read about these principles.
@manu .. no, I did not say that. You are making something up that does not exist.
DeleteTJ
@manu .. It is the 'five-waves-down' that rules out the larger flat. The 'b' wave of a larger flat would have only 'three-waves-down'.
DeleteTJ
Thanks Tj
DeleteES & NQ now below 13 Feb lows.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES - current PnF [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/26oovvpsrj0o21v/ESPnF.PNG/file
Correction - no Quad BBO, mismarked.
DeleteCfd - neg. HD target of 4331 has been reached.
ReplyDeleteSPX 3-min: this certainly looks and counts like a potential 'running triangle' and subsequent lower low. Watch out for the wave ((E)) location, as above it 'likely' means a different wave set has started upward, possibly (ii) of minute ((c)). Meanwhile, can still go lower (width of the triangle added to breakdown)?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Erzc2Gxn/
TJ
ES - 45s
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/xfx0x
Weekly and daily lower bb hit on Es.
ReplyDeleteIt appears that when reloading ES (PnF) on investing.com, its "repainting", showing differences in the PnF columns structures. Not good! Investigating.
ReplyDeleteThe HD target of 4331 is currently acting as support. We'll need to continue through this area (to the downside). A target level just reached/missed suggests a change of direction.
ReplyDeleteHello TJ,
ReplyDeleteReferring back to your August 7th, 2021 post on gold, on the monthly chart we are currently somewhere in Primary B of Cycle c best as you can tell?
Thank you!
see next day's post.
DeleteTJ
Yes just read it, fantastic, thank you!
DeleteGC - bullish catapult [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/wj2gcqva2xn97eu/GCcatapult.PNG/file
The horizontal count is about 2100.
DeleteJunk yield vs DJIA - Courtesy of free email from EWI - [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/gkaao4yaht7ghcl/junk.PNG/file
BKLN - better late than never - [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/trt9corxkj5z3p3/BKLN.PNG/file
SPY (dly) 3 channels update -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/gf08a8olbihtvz5/spy3chls.PNG/file
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ