The ES daily chart is below. This post is just a reminder that we clearly stated in the comments that if wave (v), below, was the extended wave in the sequence, denoted x(v), that these waves are almost always retraced 62% or more, and often they can be fully retraced or more. As you can see from the wave (iv) location, today the extended fifth wave was indeed fully retraced - and more.
In fact, price closed below the lower daily Bollinger Band after traveling down to strike the 200-day SMA. The next step in the process should be to monitor the down wave and see if it is retraced more than 50%. If it is (and it hasn't yet been in futures but is touching in cash SPY) then it might be a warning. Right now, things are acceptable, but they can change; that's what wave-counting-stops are for.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Warning of possible abc instead of 1 3.
ReplyDeleteRug pull incoming. Wave 3 of 3 of wave A down.
ReplyDeleteSeries gaps to the downside noteworthy. Series gaps start, and end significant trends.
ReplyDeleteThis feels like triangle action since the low.
ReplyDelete2 was 29 4hr bars. We would be maybe in the middle of b
DeleteTj. Seems like a auto correction of usd/jpy and after settlements the wave is up. Can you post a long term chart as 200sma was hit for any alternative counts. Also abv 18 sma should be bullish till the elections.
ReplyDeleteno..TJ.
DeleteI think that 5119 was a type of w3 down - and now this is the abc w4 up
ReplyDeleteC of iii in a contracting of the bottom?
ReplyDeleteiii would be over now.
DeleteDid seem to have commodity like momentum if a final 5th to tag 200 f sma.
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts yesterday was two = waves up which would be around 5296. ...so thinning out some on longs. We could well extend above 5300 - so no big shorts right now. 5330 is a second # that comes to mind.
ReplyDeleteBoth near overhead gaps likely to be filled, including one at 5410.42 imo.
ReplyDeleteSo far, there looks like a diagonal for a, and an impulse for c. There's no guarantee the up wave is over, but I'd be on overlap watch. The wave is in a channel, currently. Also it looks like the b - to - two trend line has been broken for a fourth wave within c.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DlyN7r58/
'Sometimes' - not always - there is a turn on Tuesday after an up Monday.
TJ
Wow that was great timing TJ, esp if that was top of the 4th wave bounce
DeleteSPY 15-min: there is now overlap on Level #1, L#1.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dGJO6Oz9/
TJ
Tkx, Rob. TJ.
DeleteAre we leaning toward this being an A wave of a larger rally rebound, once B drop next completes. Or this being a fourth wave that takes Mondays panic lows in V?
ReplyDeleteNeed to see if there is overlap on Level #2, L#2, the current 'a' wave. IF there is no overlap, then by the Principle of Equivalence, a = i, b = ii, c = iii, etc. TJ.
DeleteCurrent retrace is longer than retrace in (2). If local high is taken out we might get non-overlapping 5 waves ?
DeleteGot rulled out.
DeleteSPY 15-min: there is now overlap on Level #2, L#2, the 'a' wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/t8ttFyKN/
TJ
Now below the prior wave two, ruling out an expanding diagonal upward for this part of the wave - just an alternate that has to be considered.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/U3Fc4Pur/
TJ
ES 4-Hr: as far as I can tell, these lengths work in the futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/66c9iO8V/
Whether we get a "short four", which might be w-x-y in the futures (versus a-b-c in cash SPY), or a triangle is difficult to say.
TJ
ES 5-min: I will just note that in the after-hours the futures did get a fifth wave down, as follows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/41h1OlW0/
So, this just speaks to seeing if there is a subsequent retrace that does not go over the high.
TJ
Thanks Tj. 5340 high? I really appreciate your thought process of counting. Experience does matter.
DeleteA wave-counting-stop would be at 5,342 futures; the count would likely be different if that was exceeded. TJ.
DeleteAnd that count is?
Delete@manu you can learn more about how to understand Elliott Wave counting by studying this introduction:
Deletehttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/9781118479506.app1
@manu - see below @10:40 am ET. TJ.
DeleteLooks to be dying in the channel and on the EWO.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/oz7Tedt
Let me give this go. Looking at SPY, prior to the open today, there's a big rally off Monday opening low (1) followed by a retrace (2) followed by Tuesday rally (3) that retraced end if day (4) to overlap (1) and nowa higher high (5). All waves come in 3s, so 33333 leading diagonal? For either a larger first wave or a corrective wave A. If right should see a big sell later today. If wrong then well i did it again.
ReplyDeletethis morning rally only 1 wave so if going to stay with 33333 pattern then need a modest dip that inches to higher high for day.
Deletewicked looking chart
ReplyDeleteES 1-hr: so because of the higher high, the count did have to change. The best option at this point looks like this because otherwise the degrees are incorrect (waves take longer in time, than other shorter waves in price, etc.)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XzrINx8c/
TJ
..but I also don't know it is done yet. TJ.
DeleteES/SPY CFD .. another temporary stall job since the open and some trend lines to watch.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/15y400
TJ
The local trend lines have broken downward. The thing needs to show it has some legs.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/15y4dj
TJ
So, I can't say for 'sure' there is a truncation top, but it sure 'looks like' it. Down wave got some legs and might count as 'five-down'.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/15y4r2
TJ
SPY 15-min: down leg is now longer than immediately prior down leg. This rules out some possibilities (like a continuing contracting diagonal from the high), but not all.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Al9tBTR6/
TJ
SPY 15-min: down leg is now longer than the first down leg shown at the arrow. This rules out some other possibilities.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9HZbxBHu/
TJ
SPY 15-min: has now closed the opening gap.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3z8LjsRa/
TJ
SPY/ES CFD 5-min: price is in the vicinity of v = i, but the RSI divergence needs to hold with hopefully an upward break of the down channel. If it doesn't then look for an extended fifth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/15y6q4
TJ
If I rush the 4hr I can get a have ass channel but the EWO is not back to the -10 area. I am concerned this is an x wave.
ReplyDeleteThis is how I would draw that with a lot of action at the mid line.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/sdj9dF2
See 4:15 pm below. TJ.
DeleteES/SPY CFD - there is now also a 1.618 possibility at the low, (alternate red iii) and a channel break upwards. I was expecting the channel break, but I don't think the wave will be countable until it either makes a new low or a much higher high. Good time for me to exit wave counting and let the market make some choices.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/15y7ee
TJ
Whipsaw Wildness!! 😊
DeleteES/SPY new lower low on the day. Haha. Red wave iii it is. TJ.
DeleteES/SPY CFD 4 Hr - same procedure as last night; wave counting stop at the high. Master trader Bill Williams might use a chart like this, and let it help him make some decisions.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/15y89g
TJ
Note: y is at the 50% x wave three level, and there are both an '^' up and 'v' down fractal to consider. Neither fractal is broken yet. TJ.
DeleteNow if I was the market and wanted to have some maniacal fun.....
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/m8i8NlY
put in a complex wave c or d for the evil laugh as well.
Oh yes, it could! TJ
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ