Closing in on minute ((c)) = minute ((a))

Notice that the market paused each time at ((c)) = 0.618 x ((a)), and ((c)) = 0.786 x ((a)). Note, too, that the market is bumping up against an upper wedge trend line, and there is still divergence with the MACD.

ES Futures - 5 Hr - Nearing ((c)) = ((a))

Further, if minute ((a)) is a diagonal, as we first concluded, then all of minute ((c)) should not be a diagonal which it is not. So far, so good.

After charting the wave, above, I have added this one, below, as the shorter term count on the ES 15-minutes. The reason is slippery: be very, very careful of your degree labels. In the futures, the middle wave - now labeled as a very small degree second wave, 2, is too long in time to be a fourth wave. This suggests that brown wave x 1 is the extended wave in the sequence. And wave 3 should be shorter than x 1. And then, if 4 does not invalidate, then 5 should be shorter than 3, and the whole thing should form a wedge.

ES Futures - 15 Minutes - Extended x 1 Wave of (v)

Further, within wave x 1, then wave x ((5)) is the extended wave in that sequence. It is very, very difficult to count otherwise and agree with degree labeling. The retrace of x 1, being less than 38.2%, tends to argue for this count, as well.

Have a good start to the weekend.
TraderJoe

Pattern Looks Good

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.04 Trillion; prev $23.02
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Trend Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

The proposed triangle looked to have improved it's form. It seems pretty recognizable.

S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Triangle

Toward the end of the session it's possible price began to probe outside of the triangle. With tomorrow being a Friday, movement up and out of the pattern might be expected.

Have a great start to the evening.
TraderJoe

One legitimate Triangle

The cash market shows this pattern a little better than the futures.

SP500 Cash Index - Hourly - Triangle of One Form

Everything still needs to be monitored with flexibility and attention being paid to details. Other forms are possible within limits.

Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe

Into Minuet (v)?

Sorry for the late post. Was traveling today. Although all of minute ((a)) is a diagonal, there would be nothing wrong with minuet (v) - one lower degree - being a diagonal, too.

ES Futures - 2 Hr - Minuet (v)

The principle of alternation only indicates if minute ((a)) is a diagonal, then all of minute ((c)) should not be a diagonal. But, minuet (v) is of one lower degree, and, thus, may be.

TraderJoe

Minuet (iv)

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.02 Trillion; prev $23.02
ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Inside Day
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

Yesterday, we said to be on alert for a minuet fourth wave (iv) that could precede the last waves upward in the Y wave of Intermediate (B). In today's comments, the case for a triangle began to emerge and was counted out in real time. Here is a summary chart.

SP500 Cash Index - 30 Minute - Potential Triangle

With the MACD going flat, and volume scarce, price opened down and made a three-wave a wave that filled the prior gap up, shown, and retraced very close to 78.6% of the prior up wave. Then another "three-wave-looking" wave began upward and retraced very close to 78.6% of the prior down wave. These are ideal characteristics for a contracting triangle. Will they last? I'm not certain, but I would have to point out that another possibility is a barrier triangle if the b wave wants to extend further in time and price. After that, there should be a similar c wave down, etc.

There is also no requirement for a triangle here, although one is usually seen. Because wave (ii) is a sharp wave, then wave (iv) could also be a flat wave, if the b wave gets up to 90% of wave a. This is all provided that yesterday's invalidation level of 3,054 is not exceeded lower, first.

Have a good start to the weekend. Get some rest, and remain calm, patient and flexible.

TraderJoe

Over 3,079

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.02 Trillion; prev $23.02
ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Spinning Top Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

In our Tuesday post, we said that if prices got up over 3,079 that the assumption of a fifth wave in progress was more tenable. We also said on Wednesday, that all the wave sequences did line up that yesterday could be only the minuet (b) wave up - but time was out. The two are mutually exclusive. The overnight tariff news took prices up over 3,079 and made an up wave that consumed more time than a minuet (b) wave could be allowed. The short term count required revision. The longer term count did not.

Here is the weekly chart with the potential levels for the Intermediate (B) wave of 1.27x (A) and 1.38x (A). Price popped the top of the upper trend line this week.

ES Futures - Weekly - Two Key Levels

On a daily basis, price ran up to the upper daily Bollinger Band at 3,097, and then started to sell off a bit, as you can see from the daily chart, below. From this chart, there has not yet been a single day close above the band.

ES Futures - Daily - Tag of Upper Band

The daily slow stochastic is still embedded, and price is still above the 18-day SMA. There is still no full-on reversal candle. Also interesting, no significant trend line from the October bottom low has been broken. Based on measurement, the count revision that makes the most sense, is the one in the four-hour chart, below.

ES Futures - 4 H - Nearing ((c)) = ((a))

It has been a bear of a count - one filled with trips and traps. For example, the potential expanding triangle shown in yesterday's minuet (b) count did not predict the last wave in the sequence to follow it. Therefore, it must simply have not been a triangle at all but the series of higher highs to make the first impulse, minuet (i) of minute ((c)). Nothing in the above chart says minuet (iii) of minute ((c)) is conclusively over yet. It missed a critical overlap by just 1 point today near the close. But, it could be over, and if it is, so be it.

P.S. I have tried counting as a pure impulse, and the middle wave winds up being "too short" as of today. Also, there is no 1.618 wave following the ((a)) wave.

So, the primary thing to note from the count is that this latest up wave is approaching ((c)) = ((a)).

Have a good start to the evening - and still - remain flexible, patient, and calm.

TraderJoe

Gap Fill - Almost

U.S. Debt Clock: $23.02 Trillion; prev $23.00
ES Daily Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Higher Close: Yin-Yang Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)

Today made a lower low day than yesterday, then struggled all day to try regain the high, but, as of the settlement still hadn't done it. All-in-all, prices have retraced about 62% from low to high. From what I can see, time has run out on a further minuet (b) wave upward, but downward acceleration is needed as better confirmation of the minuet (c) wave, downward, being in progress. Refer to yesterday's posted chart as needed. Might be good to watch the overnight futures tonight.

Today's downward move filled the last S&P500 cash gap, upward. It came close, but did not quite "fill" the futures gap - only tying the close of the close-to-open hourly gap.

Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe