The first observation I have alluded to before. The two up waves since the 23 Mar 2020 low are now approximately equal in 'time' at roughly 58-59 bars each. See the ES 2-daily chart below. This, of course, is a very reasonable 1:1 Fibonacci relationship.
|ES Futures - 2 Day - Time Equality|
If the waves are labeled as Intermediate (W), (X) and (Y), then, in fact, in the last two days Intermediate (Y) just became 'longer in time' than Intermediate (W), and that even accounts for the fact that the (X) wave low may have truncated. So, using the principles of degree labeling, that means that the two waves should at least be of the same degree, or else the second wave is of one higher degree. In this chart, I am not interested in price, or a top, just the rough equality of the waves in time.
There is also something else one should note from the above chart: there is virtually no alternation in the wave segments. Each segment (Y) and (W) start off with something that looks impulsive. Then there is a big hump in the middle which may be a running wave, then there is another segment that looks impulsive. Let me diagram that for you.
|ES Futures - 2 Day - Lack of Alternation|
This lack of alternation suggests there is something very, very incorrect with those who are counting impulsively. The wave simply does not have the right look due to this lack of alternation. Right, but I thought this was about time? Well, it's about time! So, on to the next chart. This is the weekly chart of the ES futures.
|ES Futures - 1 Week - Time Comparison of 'B' Waves|
Here on the weekly chart, you can see on the left that the Intermediate (B) wave, up, of Primary ((A)) took about 60 bars. What is the significance of that? Well, we are now at 16 April 2021, and in about one month - or roughly 20 trading days - this upward wave would also exceed the length in time of the prior Intermediate (B) wave up, of the Primary ((A)) wave down. IF this up wave is a degree higher - as the Primary ((B)) wave I think it is - then, it stands to reason that it might not only be longer in price, which it is, but also longer in time to express that degree difference.
So, even if the Intermediate (Y) wave ended this coming week, it is still possible that (W)-(X)-(Y), the double zigzag, will extend in time to become the triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z). It does not have to happen that way. But it could. The other way for it to happen, of course, is for the Intermediate (Y) wave to last another 20+ days.
But, being a Primary ((B)) wave, then it can also be another zigzag longer in time that the Intermediate (B) wave, as well. We'll have to wait and see (no pun intended), and so I apologize for taking up so much of your time. Thanks for reading.
Have an excellent start to the weekend.