Today we got a low that was below both Friday's low, and Thursday's low last week. Even though the point loss at the end of the day was modest, below is the intra-day count I mentioned on Friday's post. With the lower lows, I give the count a 70:30 probability of making a new lower low under wave

**4**sooner than a higher high over wave

**5**.

SP500 - 4 HR - Potential Down Count to Minor A of Intermediate Wave (4) |

From wave

**5**, the downward count reads as follows: An expanding leading diagonal for minute wave (i) of A, followed by double zigzag minute wave (ii). The y wave of minute (ii) has a truncation that was called in real time, and minute wave (ii) is longer in

*than minute wave (i) for good proportions. Minute wave (iii) is in development with the first sub-wave of it downward today - hence the new lows.*

**time**If so, a gap opening downward would be expected in the next couple of days to indicate the third sub-wave of minute (iii), lower.

This view is published for several reasons. First is that a truncation in a second wave ending structure would be a somewhat bearish development for the near term if it holds. Next, both the 4-HR slow stochastics and Elliott Wave Oscillator are still heading lower after a divergence; so, too, is the MACD Histogram, which today renewed it's decline. Third, the EMA-13 on this chart has curled lower. And, lastly, the Russell 2000 has overlapped the prices from Dec 28th at the end of 2016 already.

The other 30% of the probability goes to a longer triangle wave

**4**, but such a triangle does not have good proportions at this time, and that is the simple reason why it is not the top count.

Cheers!

TraderJoe