Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; $RUT lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
The market as measured by the S&P500 cash index had another higher high day, and closed higher. It is still trading above the mid-line of the channel. Below is the daily chart of the S&P500 Cash Index for reference.
|S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Break Higher of Minute (b)|
Price got high enough today to break the minute (b) wave of the Minor 4 triangle. As long as price is making higher high days, we will continue to count upward. The Elliott Wave Oscillator remains green, and continues to make upward progress. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average filled a downward gap from June 19 today, but it still has considerable ground to make up.
Various other web-sites are trying anything they can to get in synch with this count. One has a switched from their full-on downward count, to the a message of "the triangle is the best option now". Another site claims they saw a "Leading Diagonal" from the waves since April 1st - but they are only reporting it now in July!. Folks, just like there was no ending diagonal there - as so many were claiming - there is also no leading diagonal there. Both of those counts break specific Elliott Wave rules. They are thinly veiled attempts to get in synch with the count above and reverse engineer a better answer.
Once again, even while the evidence suggests to us that prices are climbing, we are not bullish. We are simply trying to match the evidence with a fifth wave count - an ending type count. And that simply can not be bullish. It is more like looking for the end of a diving board. Prices may or will pop or hop around. We remain neutral and are counting waves as best we can - following the specific rules of wave theory, and using an objective, easy-to-understand method: The Eight Fold Path Method for Counting an Impulse.
With the cash price closer than ever to the 2,839 level, pull-backs can occur at any time. Backing-and-filling is expected. At this time, the advance-decline line may only just be beginning to buckle, but the speculation indexes are not yet where they typically are for a significant decline. Pull-backs, yes. Significant decline? The evidence says not quite yet. But we are "on-watch" for it, and hope to pay attention if it occurs. Meanwhile price evidence continues to point to the upside rather than the downside.
So for now, one can only be patient, calm and flexible as we watch to see if a new all-time high should be made.
Have a good start to your evening.