The S&P500 4-hour chart below, now has the needed 120 - 160 candles to be indicative of The Eight Fold Path methodology. It actually has 185, but any lower time frame results in too many candles, and any higher time frame results in too few. The count below is one that was established as an alternate on the ES E-mini S&P 500 futures. This is just the extension of that count to the future.
At this exact point in time, it should be seen as an "equal alternate" to the counts shown yesterday.
|SP500 4-hr Chart : Last Chance Fourth Wave?|
The rationale for this potential count is that usually, most-often, fourth waves and second waves can travel a similar net amount. The black rectangle shows the total number of points traveled in wave 2, from low to high. And, the blue rectangle is just a copy of the black rectangle and shows a near exact measurement for a wave 4 at this level. This morning cash hit 2336.45, narrowly missing that 2335 level.
This count would provide the needed alternation for an impulse, as wave 2 would be the sideways holiday trading, counted as a double combination w-x-y, with the y wave as a triangle, and wave 4 would be a sharp - and simpler - (zigzag) correction.
At a level of -16, the Elliott Wave Oscillator is just barely hanging on to a -40% of the peak of +40-2 on this chart. A UBS strategist said it well this afternoon (paraphrase), "the market has decided to make this vote on health care the decider as to whether a further correction begins here or not".
In this count wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, so a wave 5 would have to remain shorter than wave 3. And, by way of invalidation, in no case, could a wave 4 overlap wave 1 (in this count).
As I said in my weekend video having clear alternates - and clear rationale for them - is an item that helps keep an Elliott analyst's ego in check. Breathe. Enjoy. Stay patient and flexible.
Have a good evening.