With those two ideas in mind, I can now only offer the following chart as an objective assessment of the current situation.
|ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures Weekly|
Because of the measurements on the right-hand side of the chart, I don't have to say too much. First, at Friday's high of 2517.75, we have not quite made the target of 2518.25, yet. Fractions away. And, yes it is possible for a 1.618 to be over-shot slightly. But, not by much ... otherwise something else is going on. Hence, the reason I contended in Friday's post that risk is increasing.
Student's of Elliott Wave know the importance of a 1.618 measurement. But do any of us appreciate what really happened on election night, with the drop of more than 100 points in the futures, and then regaining all of it and more in less than twenty-four hours? Lest we forget ...
Have a good rest of the weekend,
Supplemental: To answer questions regarding the current status of the market versus The Elliott Wave Oscillator, I have attached this supplemental chart of the S&P500 Index on a three-week basis. That is the time-frame that provides between 120 - 160 candles from 2009. It currently provides 149 bars.
|S&P500 Cash - Three Weekly - The Eight Fold Path Method|
The monthly chart - at this time - would provide only 8 yrs x 12 + 5 = 101 candles. On this time frame, the EWO has diverged and is currently red. It is also worth noting where current price is in relationship to the upper channel boundary.