Close analysis of the following factors suggests the count in the chart, below, is applicable, yet, still within the Intermediate (B) wave, upward.
- Length of the waves in price
- Length of the waves in time
- Position of initial diagonal
- Position of largest triangle in time
- Alternation regarding potential diagonals
- Fibonacci retracement levels
- Support and Resistance
|ES Futures - Daily - Probable Up Count|
The current (b) wave which appears as a potential diagonal would not alternate well in this position as a fifth wave or a (c) wave. Therefore, it is likely one of those (b) waves that is really a triple zigzag, and it follows a three-wave (a) wave down which is too short in time to really correct the up waves.
If this current down wave breaks the mid-line of the channel (shown as the dotted line) then it might be assumed that the minuet (c) wave of the minute ((b)) wave would be underway to possibly make a 0.382 x ((a)) wave, with a minute ((c)) wave up to follow. Then, price would likely find support at prior highs, and possibly take a stab at making new all-time-highs with potential divergences with indicators like the advance-decline line, etc.
There are other ways this could happen, but for right now, this count seems to fit with the W-X-Y scenario from last December's low. The count might also generate a lot of bearishness on the break of the channel lower, yet the minute ((c)) wave need not trade all that much significantly higher than present levels.
Have a great rest of the weekend.