ES Daily Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close: Spinning Top Candle
Market Posture: Neutral-to-negative and Probing
Daily Swing Line: Higher (Higher High, Higher Low)
Daily Bias: Up (Settle Above 18-day SMA)
In our Tuesday post, we said that if prices got up over 3,079 that the assumption of a fifth wave in progress was more tenable. We also said on Wednesday, that all the wave sequences did line up that yesterday could be only the minuet (b) wave up - but time was out. The two are mutually exclusive. The overnight tariff news took prices up over 3,079 and made an up wave that consumed more time than a minuet (b) wave could be allowed. The short term count required revision. The longer term count did not.
Here is the weekly chart with the potential levels for the Intermediate (B) wave of 1.27x (A) and 1.38x (A). Price popped the top of the upper trend line this week.
|ES Futures - Weekly - Two Key Levels|
On a daily basis, price ran up to the upper daily Bollinger Band at 3,097, and then started to sell off a bit, as you can see from the daily chart, below. From this chart, there has not yet been a single day close above the band.
|ES Futures - Daily - Tag of Upper Band|
The daily slow stochastic is still embedded, and price is still above the 18-day SMA. There is still no full-on reversal candle. Also interesting, no significant trend line from the October bottom low has been broken. Based on measurement, the count revision that makes the most sense, is the one in the four-hour chart, below.
|ES Futures - 4 H - Nearing ((c)) = ((a))|
It has been a bear of a count - one filled with trips and traps. For example, the potential expanding triangle shown in yesterday's minuet (b) count did not predict the last wave in the sequence to follow it. Therefore, it must simply have not been a triangle at all but the series of higher highs to make the first impulse, minuet (i) of minute ((c)). Nothing in the above chart says minuet (iii) of minute ((c)) is conclusively over yet. It missed a critical overlap by just 1 point today near the close. But, it could be over, and if it is, so be it.
P.S. I have tried counting as a pure impulse, and the middle wave winds up being "too short" as of today. Also, there is no 1.618 wave following the ((a)) wave.
So, the primary thing to note from the count is that this latest up wave is approaching ((c)) = ((a)).
Have a good start to the evening - and still - remain flexible, patient, and calm.