Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower; $RUT, $Trans; $DJUtil higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Yin-Yang Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
I noted in yesterday's comments section, in response to keen observations by 'Birthday Bill' .. if you will.. that it was possible to see an ending contracting diagonal that would agree with the Elliott Wave Oscillator on the S&P500 30-minute cash chart. Here is that ending diagonal, at the end of the corresponding impulse wave count, as updated with today's price movement.
|S&P500 Cash Index - 30 Minute - Potential Ending Diagonal|
The up wave did form a parallel - just barely - and prices are now below the parallel so that if wave ((4)) formed as a "running flat" to alternate with the sharp wave ((2)), then the count would make sense as an impulse with good alternation in agreement with the Elliott Wave Oscillator.
However, given the funky nature of fourth waves and the inevitable Fourth Wave Conundrum, we must allow that the fourth wave could still be in progress, and the potential diagonal is only the true (B) wave of the flat. In that case wave ((3)) would have ended on 13 July. The arrow shows the ALTERNATE wave ((4)) still continuing. It doesn't have to continue, but it could.
If a true diagonal was made, it only needs to trade below the current wave ((4)) in less time than it took the diagonal to be built. If the time factor gets stretched way out, then it would more indicate the alternate. With the wave ((5)) price below the mid-line of the channel, it seemed to say that it was "running out of gas". That is now further indicated by price being below the channel.
So.. watch things carefully. I am remaining patient, open and flexible as the count proceeds. It would seem odd to have a "running fourth wave" which usually indicates strength as the next to the last wave in the entire bull market. So, more upward movement is eventually expected. There just may be a 62% retrace prior to the next up move, however. So, let's take this step by step and see with what wave sequences the market informs us.
Have a good start to your evening.